Thursday, September 25, 2014

"3pm update - a day for the bears"

Still looking for that thousand points of downside, Just under 300 of them so far.
17,279.74-16981.51 = 298.23
Switching back to the "S&P ~ 1900" call from a month ago, it's at 1969.65 down 28.65. The Aug. 7 low was 1904, a reasonable target.

From Permabear Doomster:
Regardless of the closing hour price action, today has been a day for the equity bears. There have been so many technical breaks... more notably on the bigger weekly and monthly cycles. Interesting days are ahead....MORE

Mon Sept. 22
Equities: How's About a Thousand Dow Points (to the downside)? 
The INDU closed at  17,279.74 on Friday and, since we're already looking for a 5% drop in the S&P 500, to ~1900 we might as well go whole hog on the round numbers (plus, the futures are indicating a down 36 point open).
Tues. Sept. 23
Should the Worst Happen: Surviving Waterfall Declines 
That post was followed on August 15 by "The Peak-to-Trough Magnitude of the Recent Decline Was 4.3%":
I'd expect the next one to be deeper but also reward "Buy-the-dips" setting up a nasty little experience on the next-next one for folks coming in at down 10% who watch in horror as the drop doubles to 20%....
We are now in what looks to be "the next one" which we are calling to be in the ~5% range followed by a "whew, that wasn't so bad."
Tues. Sept. 23
Equities: Where to Now?

Wed. Sept. 24
Equities: We Bounced Off Support
As was mentioned in yesterday's "Equities: Where to Now?":
...This morning, with 107 of those points in the can the question is what comes next. On a very short term basis the 1978 bottom of the last decline is support....
This morning the range on the S&P 500 has been  1,978.63 - 1,986.23
1,984.18, last........So now what? 
We should hit that 1978 at least once more, slice through and continue the down-move.
We'll be back with more this afternoon
Wed. Sept. 24
Equities: "Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur?"
S&P 500 1996.29 up 13.52; DJIA 17,202.88 up 147.01.