From AgWeb:
Corn’s Worst-Case Scenario: $2.89
...Michael Duffy, professor of economics and Extension economist, has reviewed the history of Iowa farmland values. He predicts a "likely decline" as corn and soybean prices fall, but also predicts that decline won’t be as steep as the Farm Crisis of the 1980s.
Dermot Hayes, professor of economics and Pioneer Chair in Agribusiness, took a deeper look into potential prices for the next five years, using an Iowa State modeling method. He predicts the worst-case scenario prices as follows:
Year Corn Soybeans
2013 $4.27 $9.69
2014 $3.85 $8.89
2015 $3.41 $7.85
2016 $3.12 $7.09
2017 $2.89 $6.55
"This analysis is not intended to be a forecast of annual prices in the coming months or years," cautions John Lawrence, director of Agriculture and Natural Resources Extension and Outreach. "Nor is it predicting doom and gloom for agriculture. Rather, it is intended to help put current economic conditions inot a historic context, better understand the factors that will influence prices and margins in the future, and help farmers prepare for whatever direction the market turns."...MORE
