Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Rabobank Calling the Bottom In Corn and Soy (but not quite yet)

December corn 365'4 up 0'6, November soybeans 1027'6 up 3'4.
From Agrimoney:

Corn, soy prices near the bottom. Cotton, sugar to revive

Corn and soybean futures will "experience further downside" – but not too much - Rabobank said, while foreseeing revivals ahead in cotton and sugar futures.
The bank acknowledged the prospect of huge US harvests of both corn and soybeans, estimating the yield of the grain at 170-175 bushels per acre, above a US Department of Agriculture forecast of 167.4 bushels per acre.
For soybeans, if pegged the yield at 46.5 bushels per acre, and harvest at 3.985bn bushels, compared with USDA forecasts of 45.4 bushels per acre and 3.816bn bushels.
"As the record large US grains and oilseeds harvest progresses, conditions remain idea to realise the long-anticipated build in stocks," the bank said.
"Grain and oilseed prices are expected to experience further downside through 2014 as the new crops flow."
Above the curve
However, while cutting its forecast for average soybean futures prices in the October-to-December quarter by $0.20 a bushel to $10.00 a bushel, that remains above expectations among many observers for single-digit prices ahead.
Values retain some premium to account for the risk of an early frost, which remains a threat for the next couple of weeks, and are seen typically finding a seasonal bottom later in the autumn, under the weight of harvest supplies....MORE
The futures appear to be forming a high-fructose fat bottom: