Tuesday, September 9, 2014

"A Golf Caddy, his mom, and Warren Buffet on Gold" (GDX; GLD)

This piece is a bit harsh on the Journal, they are after all, journalists, who have to wait til a trend is in place before they report on the trend. If they wanted to be mystics, sages or soothsayers they'd become analysts.
Or bloggers.
Or some combination of the two.
From Attain Capital Management:
A caddy on the golf course this past weekend asked one of Attain’s partners (Jeff Malec) what the caddy’s mom should do with her Gold bars. She thought it was a no brainer to load up on a few hundred thousand dollars worth of physical yellow metal back in 2010ish, but is having second thoughts of late with the barbarous relic off more than 30% since its highs, while other commodity markets are making new highs  (Coffee up 75% YTD, Cattle at all time highs – past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Mr. Malec asked the caddy if he had ever heard of Warren Buffet. The caddy said he had, and Mr. Malec proceeded to tell him to pass along Buffet’s thoughts on Gold:
“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
Here’s some other good Buffet quotes on Gold.
But those reading the Wall Street Journal of late might think the play is to ditch the physical gold and instead invest in Gold Mining companies. The WSJ detailed about a month ago (Aug 8th) how the Gold Miners Index (GDX) was up 26% YTD, with the catchy headline “Hedge Funds are Digging Gold Miners”.
WSJ Pic
 (Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Chart Courtesy: WSJ
We’ll admit their graphics are pretty chic, and with a quote from BlackRock and a Gold Fund about the Gold Miners rebounding, I’m sure more than a few people were swayed to get into Gold Miners....MORE
The goldminer ETF is trading down 8 cents at $24.11, down a bit more than 12% from the $27.63 achieved on August 13.
Gold is changing hands at $1251.20, up from the three-month low of $1,248.30 it traded at this morning.
The June 5, 2014 bottom tick was $1,241.20.
We are looking for a bear market bottom around $875.