Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Climateer Line of the Day: Oil Settles at a Four Month Low Edition

"Crude stocks have risen six weeks now. 
This is quite bearish for WTI."
-Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective

Although not as sweetly understated as Izabella Kaminska's comment on money, the analyst captures some of the same flavor.
I don't have a whole lot to add, long time readers know the drill, links below.
Brent $109.77 up 76 cents, WTI  $96.77 down $1.56.

From MarketWatch:
Oil ends at four-month low; supply up sixth week
Crude prices fall to session lows after Fed policy statement 
Oil futures settled lower Wednesday, with a U.S. government report showing a hefty increase in crude-oil supplies for a sixth straight week, and a widely-expected decision by the Federal Reserve to continue its monetary-stimulus measures sending prices to their lowest close in four months.

Crude oil for December delivery CLZ3 -0.12%  fell $1.43, or 1.5%, to settle at $96.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Tracking the most-active contracts, futures prices settled at their lowest level since June 28....MORE
We've been following oil to the detriment of our natural gas coverage but it has been the easier trade:
Aug. 23
Crude is up $1.74 at $106.77.
Our medium term mental map is a fake-out shake-out, i.e. higher to suck in some buying and then a 10-15% drop, back under $100.
There is a lot of oil sloshing around and Asia isn't going to be needing it for a while....
Aug. 30 
Sept 24 
Sept. 25 
Ya think?
WTI $102.54 down 59 cents Brent $108.36 down $0.28
There is an awful lot of the stuff sloshing around. 
Sept 27 
There's a lot of oil out there and if Libya and Nigeria get their acts together there will be a lot more.
Oct. 3 
Despite yesterday's pop, 2%, on short covering and news that TransCanada would be commissioning the southern portion of the Keystone pipeline this month (700k bbl/day Cushing>Gulf Coast), oil is trading "heavy", supply weighing on the market....
Oct. 9 
I'm getting sick of saying it but "There's a lot of oil around".
Oct. 17 
First the boilerplate:
I'm getting sick of saying it but "There's a lot of oil around".
Oct. 21
We've been targeting Brent $95 and WTI $90 for too long....
...It's hard to decide whether to call this decline stately or majesterial....
Oct. 23 
There's a lot of oil sloshing around.
And many more.