Saturday, October 26, 2013

The India-Pakistan Border Appears to Be Heating Up

From Public Intelligence Blog:
NIGHTWATCH: Pakistan Attacking India + Pakistan RECAP
Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge
India-Pakistan: Relations are trending downward and tension is up because of a surge in attacks from Pakistan in the past two months along the Line of Control and across the International Border of India’s Jammu and Kashmir State.

This week two attacks occurred: on the night of 22 October and the night of 24 October. On the 22nd, mortar fire and small arms fire struck 50 border observation posts on the Indian side of the International Border in the Jammu, or southern, part of the state. The attacks killed one Border Security Force constable and injured six others and a civilian. The harassing fire lasted through the night for more than seven hours. On the 24th, mortar fire and small arms attacks struck 17 border observations posts, injuring eight civilians....MORE
...Comment: The Indians are perplexed by Pakistan’s behavior. India political analysts cannot decide whether Sharif is incompetent, deliberately deceptive or simply lacks the ability to control Pakistan’s security forces who are executing national security policy independent of the government.

The increased attacks are increasing the electoral prospects of Indian nationalist parties, such as the BJP. The next general elections must be held before 31 May 2014. Political leaders in India and Pakistan do not want a war, but interest groups on both sides appear to find political advantage in increased tension and a deterioration of border security, which is occurring....
 There are three problems going on here. First, the one mentioned above, the cross-border raids increase the chances of a militant nationalist government in India. Second, four tributary rivers of the Indus rise in Jammu-Kashmir:

Third, these folks are nuts.
And both countries have nukes.
Here's the lowering of the flags ceremony at Wagah, the only border crossing between the two countries: