Sunday, October 27, 2013

"No global recovery yet" ( the risks really are to the downside)

Ambrose at the Telegraph:
The world economy is still becalmed. World trade volume fell 0.8pc in August. The next cycle of growth has not yet reached "escape velocity".

We continue to be in a contained global depression, punctuated by bursts of weak growth that peter out. It is not a disaster. It is not healthy either.
This from the Dutch CPB world trade monitor (PDF):

Click to enlarge
This from Capital Economics on the faltering expansion in global manufacturing:

They say the latest flash drop in global PMIs is a "warning sign". The next month will be crucial....MORE