Tuesday, December 18, 2012

"Saxo Bank’s 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2013"

From Pragmatic Capitalism:
This has become an annual thing from Saxo Bank.  These predictions are always a little out there, but they’re thought provoking if nothing else.  Via PR Newswire:
1. DAX plunges 33 percent to 5000
China’s economic slowdown continues, putting a halt to Germany’s industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks and low consumer confidence. Approval ratings for Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election, and in a weak economy combined with political uncertainty as Germany moves closer to signing up for further EU debt mutualisation, the DAX stock market index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.

 2. Nationalisation of major Japanese electronics companies
Japan’s electronics industry, once the glory of the country, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by South Korea. With combined annual losses of USD 30 billion for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony alone, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalises key industry players, similar to the US government’s bailout of its automobile industry.

3. Soybeans to rise by 50 percent
Bad weather during 2012, which wreaked havoc on global crop production and saw a nine-year low in US soybean ending stocks, leaves the price of new crop soybeans exposed to any new weather disruptions, either in the US, South America or in China. Increased demand for biofuel will also play its part in exposing the price to spikes, and speculators will be ready to re-enter the market, pushing the price higher by as much as 50 percent. Food security becomes a buzz phrase