Tuesday, July 26, 2011

"Uranium Shortage Can’t Be Ignored" (CCJ; DNN; URA)

...Words like "uranium", "rare earths", etc. seem to be magic to
 those unsuspecting who are often fleeced...
Gerald M. Loeb
The Battle for Investment Survival
Simon & Schuster, 1935
From Forbes:
The world faces a long-term uranium shortage as China and India build new nuclear plants, and major buying opportunities may emerge for shares of some beaten-down uranium producers.

Uranium prices have seen the largest drop in two years following the Japanese nuclear disaster and Germany’s decision to phase out its nuclear plants, both of which hit uranium prices hard. This has hammered the stocks of the leading uranium producers, but the longer-term fundamental and technical outlook suggests a major buying opportunity may lie ahead.

Germany depends on nuclear power for 23% of its needs, and with Japan considering cutting back on its nuclear expansion plans, the entire industry has been in retreat. Though Japan is the third-largest nuclear power producer after the US and France, it’s important to take a much more global look at the prospects for nuclear power.
Click to Enlarge
Currently, production does not meet the demand of the industry, and the projections for production versus demand indicate that this gap will continue to widen going into 2020. The chart above is from the World Nuclear Association, a group that promotes nuclear energy, and therefore has a vested interest. The potential gap between supply and potential demand, however, is consistent with the views of other experts.

The recent announcement from China regarding plans to boost nuclear capacity to eight times the current level by 2020 was followed by India’s plans to boost nuclear power production by thirteen times by 2030. The nuclear power industry is also flourishing in South Korea, which could add as many as ten plants by 2010....MORE
See also:
Uranium Market Outlook from Royal Bank of Canada (and an Analyst I've never heard of says "Nowhere to Go but Up-Stocks to Follow") CCJ; PDN.tsx,asx; URA; BHP

UPDATED: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: "Safe nuclear does exist, and China is leading the way with thorium"

The Disaster in Japan and Uranium Mergers & Acquisitions (KAH.L; GCL.L; NLR; URA: CCJ)

"Uranium Tumbles On Japan Crisis" (CCJ)
UPDATED: With Uranium Stocks Down 26% "China 'Won't' Change Nuclear Plans" 60 Reactors Scheduled (CCJ; RTP; URA; DNN; URRE)


A few days after the Three Mile Island Accident I was talking to the highest producing female retail broker in the U.S.
This was back when Denver, Salt Lake City, Vancouver and Alberta all traded penny uranium issues.

Speculations that cost two or three dollars a week before were "deer nuts" [under a buck -ed] and I asked what she thought. She said "Kid, this is serious and when stocks get broken like this you'd better buy quality and you'd better be patient".

There are some major differences in the energy markets between then and now but her words came back to me yesterday. We are cautious, there's no reason to run to the parimutual window with cash in each hand, the goal is to run from the window.... 
...I can't believe I just used the phrase "Uranium stock touts"

Wayback Machine, take me to Moab, Utah: July 6, 1952!

American Heritage Magazine, "THE TIME OF THE GREAT FEVER";
Time Magazine April 5, 1954 "Pennies for Uranium";
Wikipedia, Charlie Steen.