Monday, July 18, 2011

Updated: Rare VIX pattern appearing again (VXX; TVIX)

The VIX is at 21.79, up 11.5% on the day and 35.3% since the last post.
Last week's comments are found first, followed by today's comments below ...
Last week's comments:  This 12 month VIX chart shows a pattern that is fairly rare.  This chart pattern has appeared a number of times in the past and has been pretty accurate.   The pattern is where the VIX's support level is the bottom of a circle and the touch points follow the bottom of the circle.  The difference I see is that the older patterns occurred over a longer period of time within the circle area.  
In any case, this pattern should be watched because if it holds to the pattern, it will generate higher/lows on the VIX which will correlate with increasing fear levels, and increasing market risk.   So, unless the VIX aborts this pattern within the next few days (by moving sideways or lower), then the market will start to increase its risk and fear levels.  (Reference Note: This chart is updated every morning in Section 4, Chart 9c of the paid subscriber site.)...MORE