Hurricane Watch: Oil, Natural Gas Evacuations Start as Gustav Advances

Oil was trading at $118.35 +$2.08 for the day and nat gas was $8.557 +.17
From Bloomberg:

U.S. oil and natural-gas companies have begun evacuating thousands of offshore workers in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Gustav, which may become the costliest hurricane since Katrina, heads toward the region.

``We could see 50 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production shut in,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it will evacuate about 300 non- essential workers today from its offshore operations. The evacuation will have no immediate impact on production, Shell said in an announcement on its Web site.

``Several thousand'' of the almost 20,000 workers on offshore platforms, about one-quarter of whom are needed to maintain production, will be evacuated today, Ted Falgout, director of Port Fourchon in Louisiana, said in an interview. The port is a staging area for offshore workers....MORE

From SciGuy:

Why Gustav and the Gulf are ... bad news

The computer models have edged slightly more eastward today, but I expect the hurricane center's updated forecast later today to remain centered upon Louisiana because that's still near the average of the global models.

It's still much too early to talk about where the storm may end up because not only are forecast errors high at this time (i.e. about 300 miles), storms bumping into Cuba are prone to wobble or make unexpected turns. So for the sake of prudence, it's safe to say all areas from Texas' Coastal Bend to the Florida Gulf Coast remain at risk.

But at risk for what? Why the fuss over a 60-mph tropical storm?* The answer lies in the fact that the southeastern Gulf of Mexico -- where Gustav appears bound -- is a hotbed for rapid intensification....MORE

Go visit, learn yerself some Hurr'cane.
You'll see why we've been on this one since it was lil 'ol 94L. And why we didn't recommend O.J. futures this time.

*See: "Gustav now a hurricane. Why all the hype?"

The Biggest Story of the Day: Xcel/Cuomo (XEL)

And so far, none of the bloggers recognize it.
From Legal Newsline:

..."This landmark agreement sets a new industry-wide precedent that will force companies to disclose the true financial risks that climate change poses to their investors," Cuomo said.

"Coal-fired power plants can significantly contribute to global warming and investors have the right to know all the associated risks. I commend Xcel Energy for working with my office to establish a standard that will improve our environment and our marketplace over the long term."

In its annual Form 10-K filings, required by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company will disclose an analysis of the risks related to climate change regulation and legislation, climate change-related litigation and physical impacts of climate change.

Xcel will also disclose current carbon emissions, projected increases in carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants, strategies for reducing global warming emissions and corporate governance actions related to climate change.

Cuomo subpoenaed the company in September, demanding information filed with the SEC about climate change impact. One coal company, Peabody Energy, called Cuomo's investigation grandstanding.

"The New York state attorney general's office is using purported legal and regulatory claims to promote a political message by announcing an investigation of climate risk disclosure among major U.S. energy companies," the company said.

"It is unwarranted to use the legal process to advance the 'just say no' agenda, which opposes practical energy answers and has driven America to an unnecessary energy crisis.

"The legal system is designed to protect -- not harass -- those such as Peabody which are providing clean energy solutions for America.

"A process intended to protect shareholders is instead being used to advance a political agenda. It is already accomplishing the first objective: to gain headlines for a cause that has nothing to do with investor communications"

Xcel Energy, New York Attorney General Resolve Carbon Disclosure Issues (XEL)

From MarketWatch:

Xcel Energy and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo today announced an agreement that resolves greenhouse gas disclosure issues raised by Cuomo last fall.

"Xcel Energy voluntarily has reduced its carbon emissions by large amounts in recent years and plans to continue making significant reductions in CO2 emissions in the future," said Dick Kelly, chairman, president and CEO.

"We previously provided detailed information concerning the expected impact of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions regulations on our operations, and under this agreement we will make even more detailed disclosures. This agreement will enhance our already aggressive efforts to be responsible environmental stewards."

In a Sept. 14 subpoena, Cuomo sought information about Xcel Energy's public disclosures in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding the expected impact of climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions on the company's operations, financial condition and plans to construct a new coal-fired electricity generating unit at the Comanche station in Pueblo, Colo....MORE

Utilities and pipelines good during downturns and good during recoveries (BRK.A; TRP)

Tell it to Warren Buffett.* From the Financial Post:

Utility and pipeline stocks not only outperform during economic downturns but stock market recoveries as well, so investors should consider hedging their bets and play the recovery without risking performance.

The group typically leads a stock market rally by one or two months and the sees a similar jump as the market during the early stages of a recovery, Canaccord Adams analyst Bob Hastings told clients. This recovery could last several months or more than a year depending on the downturn....

..."While not the best group in terms of absolute performance, it does as well as the overall market with significantly less risk" as many investors switch from cash to conservative investments, he said. And if there is no rebound, the group outperforms....MORE

*Berkshire Hathaway owns MidAmerican Energy Holdings which owns something like 17,000 miles of pipeline. In one of those instances where Enron wrote the playbook, MidAm bought the bulk of the pipeline from Dynegy which purchased it from ENE.
Here's the EIA's pipeline map:
U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network
click to enlarge

Hurricane Watch: Waiting for Gustav

Oil is trading at $117.97 up $1.70 and natural gas is trading at $8.464 +0.077. They are up $2.55 and $0.212 from our second post yesterday.
From MarketBeat:

Investors in energy markets are nervously watching the path of Gustav, the tropical storm that’s expected to hit the Gulf Coast early next week, threatening offshore oil and natural gas facilities. As Gustav, recently downgraded to a tropical storm but likely to be upgraded to hurricane status again, slowly approaches the U.S., a rally is slowly developing in the crude oil and natural gas markets.
However, unless this storm devastates the Gulf Coast in a way similar to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, analysts believe the upturn in energy prices will be short-lived. And even then, they note that after Katrina, the price of oil pulled back for a time, before resuming the uptrend that carried it to $145 a barrel earlier this year.

“We would have to wipe out a lot of refinery capability for this to sustain a rally,” says Scott Magnuson, commodity trading advisor at MF Global. “Now, markets are nervous, so it’s a reason to buy, but if there’s not much damage to the refineries, it’ll immediately be discounted and then we’ll probably fall back into a band of $115 to $120 in oil.”>>>MORE

From Wunderblog:

Gustav kills 5 in Haiti, continues to dump heavy rains

...The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 6Z (2 am EDT) model runs are in good agreement that Gustav will turn west and pass through the narrow channel between Cuba and Jamaica after leaving Haiti. Gustav is small enough that the Kingston, Jamaica airport on the south side of the island may be able to stay open Thursday as the storm passes to the north. However, the Montego Bay airport on the north side of the island is likely to close. Heavy rain will be the primary threat to Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

The trough of low pressure that was steering Gustav northwest has moved off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. This ridge of high pressure will force Gustav west. There is now better agreement in the longer term track of Gustav. All of the models foresee a turn to the north over western Cuba, followed by a landfall on the central U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday or Monday. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. While it currently appears that Louisiana is the most likely target, keep in mind that if you're in the cone of uncertainty, you're not safe. Final landfall of Gustav could occur anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The latest GFDL model predicts landfall near New Orleans on Sunday night as a Category 3 hurricane. The HWRF model picks Mississippi on Monday morning, as a Category 3 hurricane. The NOGAPS prefers the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night, and the ECMWF targets central Louisiana on Monday morning.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
One key question controlling Gustav's short-term intensity is how close it will stay to land. Gustav will not be able to intensify much until it clears the southwest Peninsula of Haiti, which should occur late this afternoon....MORE

Solarfun: Not so much (SOLF)

The stock is trading at $17.01 down $1.93 (10.19%)
From RTT News:

Solarfun Power Drops In Pre-Market Following Quarterly Results
Following the release of quarterly results, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF: News ) is dropping during Wednesday's pre-market trading.

At 8:03 am ET the stock is trading at $17.70 down $1.19 from Tuesday's close.

With the decline, the stock stands to open below recent support and at its lowest level in a week.

The company reported net income of RMB 78.1 million for the second quarter, compared to RMB 20.2 million in the second quarter of 2007....MORE

Translated: They beat by a penny, $0.23 vs. consensus $0.22.

Solar: MEMC Elec- Stock should be trading closer to $70 - Merrill Lynch (WFR)

From Notable Calls:

- Merrill Lynch is out positive on MEMC Elec (NYSE:WFR) this morning noting they expect the co to report that 3Q is progressing as planned and leave guidance unchanged on their mid 3Q conference call, Tuesday September 2 after the close....
...Notablecalls: We had couple of tier 2 firms out positive on WFR yesterday but the stock did very little for the bulls. I think MLCO's comments may ignite it to the upside here.

We saw this at ClusterStock yesterday but decided to file it rather than posting:

MEMC Electronic Materials: Solar Channel Checks Solid, Semis Weak (WFR)

FBR previews MEMC Electronic Material's (WFR) mid-quarter update and says that despite strength in the company's solar wafer shipments, weak semiconductor demand will offset those gains. MEMC remains one of few solar stocks that bearish FBR considers "attractive."

FBR's recent checks suggest that solar wafer shipment from MEMC into solar customers improved from June to July, and the total shipment in the first three weeks of August has already exceeded the total shipment in the month of July:

We note that SunTech (STP, MP), one of the largest solar wafer customers at MEMC, exceeded 2Q expectations when STP reported last week, with 3Q guidance of 22% sequential growth in revenues, which was 5% above our previous expectations. Such an example gives us incremental confidence that MEMC has "at least" remained on track with capacity additions, and so far, no hiccups....MORE

Jim Cramer, Nancy Pelosi and T. Boone Pickens Walk Into a Bar (CLNE)

Oh sure, now that the story is in the Wall Street Journal...
Truth be told, Cramer has been beating the drum on natural gas for a month now. He's early, although Hurricane Gustav may save his bet (butt).
From 24/7 Wall Street:

Cramer Chases Pelosi & Pickens in Clean Energy (CLNE)

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said that a stock you can buy that didn't even have to buy off politicians to do well is Clean Energy Fuels Corp....
... Cramer believes this is as big of a ringing endorsement of the highest sort, but because it is thin volume he wants you waiting five days before pulling the trigger....

From Reuters:
Clean Energy Fuels shares rise on Cramer comments

Shares of Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose more than 8 percent after Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," recommended the stock citing the vehicular natural gas provider's growth potential if California authorizes an alternative fuel statute.

The California Proposition 10, also called California Alternative Fuels Initiative, seeks to use $5 billion in government funds to promote alternative fuel vehicles and renewable energy....MORE

Here's the Mad Money recap and video:
Nancy Pelosi Approves this Stock

When Warren Buffett owns a stock, there’s a good chance you want to own whatever it is he’s blessed as well. But Cramer dropped a name today of someone who might even be even more influential: Nancy Pelosi.

“It’s even better than Warren Buffett being a shareholder,” Cramer said, because Buffett doesn’t control the House of Representatives.”

Pelosi’s stamp of approval is huge because, without government incentives, gas stations that pump only nat gas are likely to go unused. So her investment in CLNE is “the clearest possible endorsement of natural gas as a transportation fuel,” Cramer said....

...Remember where you heard it first:

Fri. Aug. 15, 2008
T. Boone Pickens: Greenwashing and Rentseeking (CLNE)

Just to hammer the point home:

Mon. Aug. 18, 2008
Nancy Pelosi, Al Gore and T. Boone Pickens Walk Into a Bar (CLNE)

Explosive growth reshuffles Top 10 solar ranking

From Solid State Technology:

The explosion of photovoltaics production across the globe completely reshuffled the top companies in Nomura Securities' annual ranking of the leading companies, knocking long established Japanese players out of the top spots and putting four Asian suppliers in the Top 10. Japan's leading solar companies outline their strategies for this changing market in this report from SST partner Nikkei Microdevices.

Fast growing Q-Cells AG became the world's largest solar cell maker in 2007, producing nearly 400 MW worth of product. Longtime solar industry leader Sharp found itself in second place as production slipped to roughly 370MW, which the company blamed on a constrained supply of silicon. China's Suntech was close behind the leaders with more than 300MW output, pushing Kyocera and its 200MW to a distant third.

Four new companies jumped into the top ranks. CdTe-cell maker First Solar debuted at fifth place, the only US-based and only thin-film supplier on the list. Asian players Motech Industries (Taiwan), Yingli Green Energy (China), and JA Solar Holdings (China/Australia) rounded out the rankings, pushing aside some long-established players like Mitsubishi Electric, Schott AG, and BP Solar (see Figure 1).

Nomura notes that Japan's overall share of the solar cell market, at 50% a few years ago, is now down to about 20% and could well slip to 15% in the next few years as the rest of the world ramps up solar-cell production.

Big growth in solar market shakes up top 10 ranking.
(Source: Nomura Securities, Nikkei Microdevices)

The major Japanese suppliers are aiming for major growth of their own in the next two years, with big expansions in capacity -- on the gigawatt scale at Sharp and Showa Shell Solar KK -- and on new technologies they say will significantly improve efficiency. "The next two years will determine the winners,">>>MUCH MORE

GT Solar Reports Record Numbers as Law Firm Attempts to Poop in Punch Bowl (SOLR)

The stock was up 52 cents (3.84 %) before the release and is down $2.07 (14.71%) in aftermarket trade.
From BusinessWire (@4:05 EDT):

GT Solar International, Inc. Reports Fiscal Year 2009 First Quarter Results

Highlights

• Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009 grew to $57.1 million, up 272% from the prior year first quarter revenue

• Gross margin for the quarter was 42.6%

• Net income for first quarter of fiscal year 2009 was $5.1 million, compared to a loss of $5.0 million for the prior year first quarter

• Earnings per share for first quarter of fiscal year 2009 was $0.03, compared to a loss of $0.04 for the same quarter of fiscal year 2008

• Company completed its initial public offering (“IPO”) and listing on NASDAQ on July 24^th, 2008...MORE

• 
  

From MarketWatch (@4:27 EDT):

Milberg LLP Announces Its Investigation on Behalf of Certain Investors of GT Solar International, Inc. -- SOLR

...According to the complaints, on July 23, 2008, GT Solar accomplished its IPO of 30.3 million shares at $16.50 per share for net proceeds of $500 million, pursuant to the Registration Statement (the "Offering"). The proceeds from the Offering went to GT Solar Holdings, LLC ("GT Solar Holdings"). GT Solar Holdings intended to use the net proceeds it received via the Offering to make a distribution to its shareholders. In its first day of trading, GT Solar closed at $14.59 per share on July 24, 2008.

The following day, on July 25, 2008, before the market opened, LDK Solar Co., LTD ("LDK"), GT Solar's largest customer, issued a press release announcing that it had signed a contract to purchase production equipment from one of GT Solar's competitors. On this news, GT Solar's stock price declined to as low as $9.30 per share before closing at $12.59 per share on July 25, 2008, losing 13% of its value in its second day of trading.

According to the complaint, the Registration Statement failed to disclose the true extent of the risks surrounding the Company's relationship with LDK, including the fact that the Company was at imminent risk of losing out on a contract for future orders from LDK due to delays in shipping production equipment to LDK....MORE

I still think of them as Milberg Weiss which is of course incorrect since name partner Mel Weiss was convicted in Federal District Court for being nasty in public, private and just in general.
From Fortune, Oct. '07:

Milberg Weiss faces the music
Three of the four men who once ran the lawsuit factory have now agreed to plead guilty. Co-founder Mel Weiss will take his chances at trial, says Fortune's Peter Elkind....

And from the Wall Street Journal's Law Blog:
July '08:

Mel Weiss to Milberg: Show Me The Money!

Mel Weiss may be due to report to prison soon, but he’s still fighting to share in Milberg’s legal fees.

Weiss in June was sentenced to 30 months in prison for his role in Milberg’s scheme to pay kickbacks to clients. Also in June, the firm reached a deal with the government in which it admitted wrongdoing in exchange for prosecutors agreeing to drop charges. At the time, Milberg blamed the wrongdoing on its former partners, including Weiss. “Our former partners who were prosecuted were deliberately concealing their illegal activities from us,” Milberg said in a statement at the time....

Milberg needs the money from SOLR or their kitties don't get Beluga for breakfast (Sevruga? Yuck. I'll scratch your eyes out as you sleep, big daddy):

The Saga’s End (Almost): Milberg, Feds Reach $75 Million Settlement

For better or worse, we can now (almost) close the book on the Milberg Weiss saga. Yesterday, the U.S. attorney’s office in Los Angeles and the firm — now known as Milberg LLP — announced a settlement agreement. In exchange for $75 million, an admission of wrongdoing and a smattering of other concessions, the government agreed to drop all charges against the firm. Here are stories from the WSJ and NYT.It’s likely more than a small victory for Milberg — a guilty plea or conviction may well have meant the end of the firm.

“The settlement with Milberg reflects the seriousness of what was probably the longest-running scheme ever conducted by a law firm,” U.S. Attorney Thomas P. O’Brien said in a statement. “The monetary payment will punish the firm for allowing this conduct to occur, and the compliance monitor should ensure that Milberg will not again lie to judges presiding over cases it is litigating.”...

Here's the link to the Law Blog's coverage. It is exhaustive (and exhausting)

Hurricane Watch: Gustav Slams into Haiti. And: What history tells us about where Gustav's headed

First up, Wunderblog:

Hurricane Gustav plowed into Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds around 1 pm AST today. The encounter with Haiti's high mountains has weakened Gustav to a tropical storm, according to the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters. At 1:56 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 992 mb in Gustav's eye--an increase of 11 mb from the previous reading. Gustav's top winds have decreased to tropical storm strength, according to the SFMR instrument, which measured winds of 65-70 mph at the surface, just south of Haiti's southwest peninsula. The eye of Gustav is still over Haiti, moving west-northwest along this peninsula. This longer than expected track of the eye over Haiti is bad news for that country, but good news for Jamaica and eastern Cuba....GO for the pictures but come back for SciGuy.

From the Houston Chronicle:

As we're at least a few days from knowing where Hurricane Gustav ultimately will go, it's appropriate to glean what we can from climatology.

That is, where have storms that formed in the northern Caribbean during August typically wound up?

I'm going to approach the question from a couple of ways, but the bottom line is that -- historically -- Texas is generally the likeliest target for such storms at this time. Mexico and Louisiana are the second likeliest areas to be struck by August storms located near Gustav.

HISTORICAL AUGUST TRACKS

One way to study the question is to use NOAA's historical hurricane tracks tool. Using this database I compiled a list of major hurricanes (category-3, -4 and -5) that struck Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast in August between 1851 and 2006. They're plotted on the map below:

MUCH MORE

Clean Coal's $2 Mil. Ad Blitz and Vestas' $100 Mil. Campaign

I knew I should have gone into advertising.
From the Center for Public Integrity:

Convention-goers in Denver and St. Paul won’t be able to miss the $2 million advertising blitz planned by businesses promoting “clean coal” as key to the nation’s energy future. But chances are, the politicians flying in from the nation’s capital are already well aware of the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity’s message. A Center for Public Integrity analysis shows that the newly formed group spent $4.7 million on lobbying so far this year — more than any other organization that described itself in disclosure forms as devoted exclusively to influencing climate change legislation....MORE

From Dow Jones via CNN Money:

Vestas Launches $100 Million Consumer Ad Campaign In U.S.

Maker of wind turbines Vestas Wind Systems A/S is advertising in the New Yorker magazine, but the company doesn't expect you to put its hundred-ton machines on your shopping list.

Instead, the world's largest seller of wind turbines sees the need to raise Americans' awareness of wind energy's potential. To that end, Vestas budgeted $ 100 million for the next two years to bring its "Vestas, No. 1 in Modern Energy" campaign to U.S. living rooms, company Chief Executive Ditlev Engel told Clean Technology Insight.

(This story also appeared in Clean Technology Insight, a daily newsletter published by Dow Jones & Co.)

This is the first year that the company has come out with consumer-targeted ads that will run in print, online, on the radio and on television.

"We want to show people: Here's technology you have but don't use," Engel said....MORE

Waiting for the Sun (SOLF)

From MarketBeat:

The frenzy that surrounds the earnings season has died down, but investors can still get their fix with individual names, some of which have seen wild swings in advance of quarterly releases.

Wednesday, China-based Solarfun Power Holdings Inc., which trades American depository shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market, will report earnings before the opening bell. The stock fell 5% Tuesday, following a run-up that began amid strong reports from other solar industry companies.

China Sunergy and Suntech Power both posted strong earnings last week. “There might be some optimism that the trend will continue with Solarfun,” says Frederic Ruffy, options strategist at Whatstrading.com. The company is expected to report earnings of 1.47 renmimbi a share on 1.25 billion renmimbi in revenue, according to the six-analyst consensus as reported by Thomson Reuters.

While the stock declined a bit Tuesday, trading in the options market indicated optimism among investors, as more than 7,000 out-of-the-money call options...MORE

Meanwhile, in another part of the empire, one of Mr. Gaffen's confreres reports:

Solarfun: Analyst Says Premium P/E “Hard to Justify”

Collins Stewart analyst Daniel Ries today launched coverage of solar cell producer Solarfun (SOLF) with a Hold rating.

Ries writes in a research note that he is “impressed qualitatively and quantitatively with developments at SOLF over the past year,” as it made changes in senior management, expanded its customer base, improved working capital management and capital efficiency and launched a strategy to integrate ingot and wafer production into its operation. But he also says that given its current valuation, he’s not recommending purchase. Trading as of yesterday’s close at 13.7x FY 2009 estimate EPS, he notes, the stock trades at a substantial premium to the average 10.5x multiple for its peers. The premium, he says, “is hard to justify.”>>>MORE

What’s Up With The China Solar Stocks?

Eric Savitz must be in front of a screen. From Tech Trader Daily:

I’m not at all sure if there’s a catalyst for this, but China-based solar stocks are suffering a fairly substantial sell off today.

See for yourself:

• JA Solar (JASO): Down $1.02, or 5.7%, to $16.95.
• Suntech Power (STP): Down $3.01, or 6.7%, to $42.96.
• China Sunergy (CSUN): Down 83 cents, or 6.9%, to $11.20.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ): Down $2.02, or 6.2%, to $30.43.
• Yingli Green Energy (YGE): Down $1.04, or 5.8%, to $16.84.
• Trina Solar (TSL): Down $2.85, or 8.4%, to $31.11.
• LDK Solar (LDK): Down $2.23, or 4.5% to $47.83.

• 
  

I’m sure there is a perfectly rationale reason for this, but I can’t find one....MORE.
(the first commenter is ironic, the Barron's writers are constantly accused of being short or being in the pay of the shorts or of being Bilderbergers or of being short Bilderbergers)

Green on the Screen-Earnings Heads Up: GT Solar (SOLR)

GT Solar was the little IPO that couldn't. After being priced at $16.50 the stock immediately went to a discount, trading as low as $9.30 on its second day as a public company (-43.6% Ouch). At that point the first responder attorney corps stepped up to, well, you know. The stock has been clawing its way back and was recently trading at $13.79 up 24 cents. On a day when the solars are in the red, from -0.79% for ENER to -7.51% for TSL.

Why the enthusiasm for the busted IPO? Today they issue their first earnings report as a public company. If you are one of the attorneys attempting to certify your case as a class action, I have some ideas on how to hedge your potential fees.
Earnings after the close. Here are our earlier SOLR posts:

GT Solar IPO prices at $16.50 per share in IPO (SOLR)
GT Solar shares fall as much as 15 pct in debut (SOLR)
Frank Quattrone: Bring Back Conflict Ridden IPO* Analysts
Traders Slamming GT Solar IPO (SOLR)
Was the GT Solar IPO a Hit Job? (SOLR)
GT Solar: Here Come the Lawyers (SOLR)

Hurricane Watch: Wunderblog Gives Gustav 60% Chance of "Significant" Disruption of U.S. Oil & Gas

First the pull-quote, then the context. Oil is trading at $115.42 + 0.31, nat gas is at $8.252 + 0.427.
From Wunderblog:

...Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to intensify into a major Category 3 or higher storm. I give a 60% chance that Gustav will cause significant disruption to the oil and gas industry in the Gulf.

Here's the paragraph:

...The intensity forecast for Gustav
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under moderate wind shear (15 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification is likely whenever the storm is over water, at least 50 miles from land. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a toll on Gustav. Recall in 2006 that Hurricane Ernesto hit the southwest tip of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Haiti's mountains knocked Ernesto down to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, which decreased further to 40 mph when the storm crossed over into Cuba. Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav's winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, Gustav will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to intensify into a major Category 3 or higher storm. I give a 60% chance that Gustav will cause significant disruption to the oil and gas industry in the Gulf....MORE

Why we Didn't get too Excited about the Sunpower/PG&E Deal (PCG; SPWR)

On August 15 you couldn't swing a dead cat (anyone know where that term comes from?) without seeing the Optisolar, Sunpower, PG&E news:

Giant solar project in California rivals coal plant
SunPower (SPWR) Lands Big PG&E Contract, Fueling Concerns About First Solar (FSLR)
SunPower (SPWR) shoots higher on PG&E deal
24/7 Wall St. Day Trading Alerts: SunPower (SPWR)
CNBC: SunPower CEO Calls PG&E Contract “Fantastic”

The stock opened on a nine dollar gap at $87.64 that morning and subsequently traded as high as $97.39 on the 22nd.
Here's what it's done the last five trading days (chart via Yahoo):


I don't know if the stock will fill the gap all the way back to the closing price on the 14th, $78.57, but they often do.
Here are our headlines:

Aug. 15:
Solar Stocks Levitating, Led by SunPower (ENER; FSLR; JASO; LDK; SPWR; STP)

Aug. 18:
From the New York Times: This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
...Its panels pivot from east to west to follow the sun over the course of a day — not west to east.

Aug 22:
First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower, Says Citigroup (FSLR; SPWR)

Could a big earthquake reduce Manhattan to rubble someday?

From Scientific American:
A new study from the Earth Institute at Columbia University says there’s more seismic activity around the Big Apple than previously thought. Researchers also say they discovered a new active fault line running from Stamford, Conn., 25 miles (40.2 kilometers) west toward the Hudson River. There, this underground fault intersects with another fault line....MORE










Image: All known quakes near the Indian Point nuclear power plant (near Peekskill, New York, or "Pe" on map) between 1677-2004, graded by magnitude (M). (adapted from Sykes et al.)

HT: Meme Box

Energy Conversion Devices: Cowen out positive on the name (ENER)

From Notable Calls:

Cowen is out positive on Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ:ENER) saying they expect Q4 EPS to meet or beat our 20c ENER estimate (vs. St. 16c), based on revenue and margin upside, with operating expenses (ex. restructuring) below consensus. Firm sees room for Street estimates to rise, particularly on greater operating leverage. Increased backlog should aid visibility on demand and ASP trends, boosting investor confidence. And, details on the next expansion could help illuminate out-year earnings power. They see 50% upside vs. the market in 12 months and reiterate Outperform....MORE

...Notablecalls: I suspect ENER will move on this call. I especially like Cowen's comments regarding the backlog. Could do 2 pts easy or even challenge recent swing highs.

Gustav now a hurricane. Why all the hype?

From the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy:

Taking advantage of the warm northern Caribbean Sea waters, Gustav continued organizing overnight and now has become the season's third hurricane. Its maximum sustained winds have reached 90 mph. Let's talk about where Gustav might be going, how strong it might get and why there's such a buzz surrounding the storm.

WHERE IT'S GOING

The computer models have made a significant jump toward the southwest overnight, and now generally agree upon a track into the Gulf of Mexico between the western half of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...WHY ALL THE HYPE?

People are buzzing about Gustav because it seems to have the best chance of any tropical system since the record 2005 Atlantic hurricane season's Katrina, Rita and Wilma to traverse the central Gulf of Mexico, where the loop current stands ready to aid in the rapid intensification of a hurricane.

It's also the time of year, from now until the end of September, when the Gulf waters are at their warmest. So if we're to have a major hurricane strike the Gulf coast this year, now's the time....MORE

Here's one of the headline's he's talking about. From CNN:
Forecasters: Gustav could become 'extremely dangerous'