Tuesday, December 30, 2025

"Iranian protesters clash with security forces as tear gas fills Tehran streets amid nationwide unrest"

From Fox News, December 29:

Nationwide strikes shut down major commercial hubs, including Grand Bazaar as unrest spreads to Mashhad 

Protests escalated across Iran on Monday as demonstrators confronted security forces in Tehran and Mashhad, with authorities deploying tear gas amid strikes and street clashes, according to reports.

An Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, reported that a large crowd of demonstrators marched along Jomhouri (Republic) Street before moving into nearby areas, including Naser Khosrow Street and Istanbul Square in Tehran.

Central parts of Tehran turned into flashpoints as protesters and regime security forces engaged in running street clashes near major government and commercial areas.

Police units fired tear gas and used batons to break up crowds in the city center, according to accounts from the scene....

....MUCH MORE 

Iran International is liveblogging:

Summary
  • Protests spread across Iran for a third day, with universities and commercial districts emerging as key hubs amid a widening strike by shopkeepers in Tehran and other cities.

  • Security forces cracked down on demonstrations, with multiple arrests reported, students detained, and the use of live fire and tear gas in several locations. One student was severely injured in Tehran.

  • Protest slogans escalated beyond economic grievances, targeting clerical rule and the Supreme Leader, while some demonstrators called for regime change and a return to the Pahlavi era.

  • Officials acknowledged mounting public pressure, with the president calling for dialogue with protesters, while authorities ordered widespread provincial shutdowns citing cold weather and energy constraints.

Video: 'Death to Khamenei' chanted during Farsan protests

....MUCH MORE 

We found II to be a very straightforward source when Natanz and Iran's other nuke sites were bombed last summer.

On our little blog, most recently, it was just an out-the-door headline to exit December 15's Iran by Slavoj Žižek: "When Communism Is the Only Option":

And from the AP via the Times of Israel, December 15:

Iran’s rial currency plummets to new low, sparking fears of higher food prices 

"IPO Bloodletting after “Pop” in 2025: Venture Global, CoreWeave, Figma, Klarna, Bullish, Circle Internet, Navan, Firefly, Fermi… "

From Wolf Street, December 29:

Of the largest 20 IPOs, 14 trade below their IPO price; only 6 trade above it. Many plunged from their post-IPO pop. 

There were 202 IPOs in 2025 – not including the 144 SPACs that went public – the most since the IPO boom in 2021 (blue columns, left scale in the chart). But a big part of that volume was driven by foreign micro-IPOs of minuscule outfits. So the total amount raised by the 202 companies was $44 billion (red line, right scale), driven by a few big immensely hyped IPOs: The largest 20 IPOs (by amounts raised) accounted for $25 billion of the $44 billion raised. The top nine raised each over $1 billion, and $16.5 billion combined.

The drama that occurred were the first-day “pops” followed by long plunges from the intraday highs. By Friday, December 26, the stocks of nearly all of the largest 20 IPOs had plunged from their intraday highs, with 11 of the 20 plunging by over 40%; and four – we’ll include Figma here though it barely missed being in the largest 20 – plunging by 73% or more. This includes crypto and AI heroes.

And of these largest 20 IPOs, the stocks of 14 had dropped below their IPO prices by Friday. The IPO price is the price at which the company sold shares to institutional investors the day before the stock starts trading publicly.

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/US-stocks-IPOs-12-27-2025.png 

The largest 20 IPOs by amounts raised, plus Figma.

The list below shows the largest 20 IPOs by amount raised in 2025. The largest of the 20 was Medline, which raised $6.27 billion in the IPO. The smallest of the top 20 was Fermi, which raised $683 million during the IPO.

I added Figma to the list, though it didn’t make the cut-off (it raised $412 million) because it was a hugely hyped IPO with a mega-spike during the first two days and then a hard plunge.

The right column shows the percentage decline from the intraday high.

The second column from the right shows the percentage change from the IPO price – the price at which the company sold the IPO shares to institutional investors the day before the stock started trading publicly.

The negative percentage changes are marked in bold....

....MUCH MORE 

"Who to Trust? Danish or Norwegian Intelligence?"

From High North News, December 19:

https://www.highnorthnews.com/sites/default/files/styles/media_image/public/2025-12/Fokus%202025%20og%20Udsyn%202025.png?itok=TCc5VLPM 

Side by side, the Danish Utsyn 2025 and the Norwegian Fokus 2025 
report on developments in the High North over the past year.

Comment: We are about to close on a turbulent year, to put it mildly. It might have been the most turbulent any of us can remember. So let us hope that next year offers something different, such as the Arctic remaining a region without armed conflict. 

Les på norsk.

This is a comment written by a member of the editorial staff. All views expressed are the writer's own.

We are bombarded almost daily by analyses of the Arctic situation. These are busy times for politicians, the Armed Forces, and a handful of experts. And so are we, who are tasked with following and communicate the analyses to our readers.

Central actors in relaying the threats faced by the High North are the intelligence services is the Norwegian and Danish Defence Intelligence Services. Their reports, respectively named Fokus (Norwegian intelligence) and Utsyn (Danish intelligence), describe these threats.

Or more accurately, the threats the Armed Forces believe should be readily available.

The view of USA

I previously wrote a comment on the Danish report. Now, both countries' reports lie on my desk. Both countries control central, strategic areas in the North. Denmark has Greenland, and Norway has Northern Norway and Svalbard.

In addition, Denmark and Norway also have a close intelligence cooperation, including through NATO. In other words, they hold the same information when assessing the threat landscape.

Denmark has Greenland, we have Svalbard.

Yet, the difference in the two documents is striking. 

The most significant difference is the view of the USA, which Danish intelligence describes as a threat to Danish interests and other allies. This is particularly rooted in the conflict about Greenland. The Norwegian report holds few signs of scepticism toward the US.

But the analyses also highlight differences in terms of the Arctic....

....MUCH MORE 

Our last visit to High North News was December 22's "Russia’s Arctic Shipping Route Turns Into “Dark Fleet” Corridor Used by 100 Sanctioned Vessels". 

That was preceded by the post mentioned above, "Denmark Sees US As Potential Security Concern". 

Higher Gasoline Prices In California As Senate Bill 445 Takes Hold

From the Orange County Register, December 27:

"Susan Shelley: Who pays for California’s war on drivers? You do."

If you’ve hesitated to buy an electric car because it’s typically easier to find a gas station than a charging station, California has a solution for you.

Fewer gas stations. And higher gas prices.

You may see a number of gas stations closing down in 2026 due to Senate Bill 445, which requires the owners of single-walled underground storage tanks containing hazardous substances – gasoline, for instance – to permanently close or replace them. The deadline is this Wednesday, December 31.

Back when SB 445 was signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown in 2014, the deadline date at the end of 2025 probably seemed so far away that it couldn’t possibly cause any political damage to the politicians who approved it. Now that it’s here, all the current politicians can answer constituents’ questions about local gas stations closing by solemnly pointing to the law and saying they didn’t do it. See how this works?

Whether gas stations comply or close, the regulation’s effect on California gas prices is to push them higher, either from reduced competition or higher costs passed through to customers.

Something similar is currently happening with local trash pick-up fees. A law aimed at keeping organic waste out of landfills was enacted ten years ago and has just taken effect. Now every city has additional costs for separate curbside containers and more expensive trash processing, costs passed on in higher sanitation fees to city residents and businesses. Take it up with the former governor.

The current governor, however, is fully to blame for oil refineries closing in California. Phillips 66 is closing its Los Angeles refinery by the end of the year, and a Valero refinery in Benicia is set to shut down in April. These closures are expected to push gas prices up to even more painful levels.

One reason this is happening is that Gov. Gavin Newsom called two special sessions of the legislature to pass laws with the stated purpose of cracking down on oil companies for the crime of, well, there actually was no crime. Just the crackdown.

The first special session, in 2023, produced Senate Bill X1-2, the “California Gas Price Gouging and Transparency Law.” It set up the “Division of Petroleum Market Oversight” as an independent division of the California Energy Commission. The DPMO was given a mandate to protect the consumers of transportation fuels through “market oversight, investigations, economic analysis and policy recommendations,” as described in the division’s first annual report, released in October.

Then in 2024, needing more political cover for the anger over high gasoline prices in California, Newsom called another special session to crack down on oil companies. This one produced Assembly Bill X2-1, the “Reducing Gasoline Price Risks Law.”

SB X1-2 authorized the California Energy Commission to set a maximum profit margin for gasoline refining and to impose penalties for “excess profits.” It demanded new data collection to spot “market manipulation,” and it required an assessment of methods to ensure a reliable fuel supply while the state “transitions” away from petroleum....

....MUCH MORE 

"Louisiana factory boss gifts 540 employees six-figure Christmas bonuses totaling $240 million"

From the Daily Mail, December 26:

More than 500 workers at a Louisiana factory walked away with six-figure bonuses totaling $240 million after their boss fought for them when he sold the company for $1.7 billion.

Graham Walker, who is set to step down as CEO of Fibrebond on December 31, told prospective buyers he would only sell the company his father founded if they earmarked 15 percent of the proceeds for the company's employees.

The requirement was non-negotiable, Walker told the Wall Street Journal, arguing that without the stipulation, his employees - who did not own stock in the company - would walk out.

Ultimately, executives at power management company Eaton agreed to Walker's terms, and in June, 540 full-time Fibrebond workers began receiving payouts averaging $443,000, to be allocated over the next five years.

Long-time employees received even more.  

When each worker started receiving their bonus amounts in envelopes, some were overwhelmed with emotion, while others thought it was a prank.

Lesia Key, a 29-year veteran at the factory who started in 1995 making $5.35 an hour, broke down when she opened her letter. 

'It was surreal, it was like telling people they won the lottery. There was absolute shock,' recounted Hector Moreno, a business development executive at Fibrebond.

'They said, "What's the catch?"'....

....MUCH MORE 

"4 Companies Already Riding the Wave of SpaceX’s $1.5 Trillion IPO"

From Observer, December 15:

SpaceX is taking steps toward a potential IPO, sending shares of partners like EchoStar and STMicro soaring and drawing investor attention. 

Talk of SpaceX going public is sending the stocks of its partners and investors soaring. After multiple outlets reported earlier this month that SpaceX could pursue an IPO as soon as next year, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday (Dec. 14) that the Elon Musk–led rocket and satellite company will begin hearing pitches from investment banks this week, marking a concrete step toward a long-anticipated public listing.

The scale of a SpaceX IPO would be historic. Bloomberg reports the company is seeking to raise more than $30 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion. That would nearly double estimates from earlier reports and quadruple SpaceX’s most recent valuation from a secondary share sale over the summer.

For years, Musk had teased a potential IPO of SpaceX’s Starlink division. Now, the company is considering a full public listing, signaling that its launch business is generating steady revenue capable of withstanding the scrutiny of public markets.

IPO speculation first surfaced on Dec. 5. While SpaceX CFO Bret Johnson has told employees the listing remains “highly uncertain,” the market has already reacted. Shares of several publicly traded SpaceX partners and investors have surged, including EchoStar, a communications networks firm, and STMicroelectronics, which supplies components for SpaceX’s Starlink terminals. Other space-focused companies, such as Rocket Lab, also rose in sympathy.

Here are four companies to watch as SpaceX inches closer to what could be one of the largest IPOs in history....

....MUCH MORE 

"US-Indonesia minerals deal points to new global trade era"

From Asia Times, December 30:

Critical minerals pact signals shift away from free trade deals toward supply chain security-focused partnerships  

The new geopolitics of trade is no longer written in tariffs alone. It is etched into nickel seams, coded into battery supply chains and negotiated quietly in the language of “reciprocity.”

The recently finalized Indonesia–US tariff and critical minerals package is not just another trade deal. It is a signal flare for a world entering a more anxious, mineral-hungry age

By late 2025, Jakarta and Washington had converged on a framework that links reduced US tariff exposure — settling around 19% rather than the earlier threatened 32% — to expanded American access to Indonesia’s critical minerals, especially nickel.

The agreement, due for formal signing in early 2026, also reaches into digital trade, technology cooperation and the rollback of selected non-tariff barriers. On paper, it is transactional. In practice, it reshapes strategic leverage across the Indo-Pacific.

Nickel is the quiet protagonist of this story. Indonesia accounts for more than half of global nickel production and sits at the center of the electric-vehicle (EV) revolution. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for nickel used in batteries could rise by nearly 100% by 2030 under net-zero scenarios.

For Washington, locked into strategic competition with China and acutely dependent on foreign mineral supplies, Indonesia is no longer just Southeast Asia’s largest economy. It is a pillar of future industrial security.

This explains why Indonesia’s deal differs from parallel US arrangements with Malaysia, Thailand or Vietnam. While those agreements also hover in the high-teens tariff range, Indonesia’s package cuts closer to the bone of the national development strategy....

....MUCH MORE 

"How Indian IT learned to stop worrying and sell the AI shovel"

From India Dispatch, December 26: 

The AI Revolution Needs Plumbers After All 

For the last two years, generative AI was going to kill Indian IT. The argument seemed almost self-evident — if machines can write code, a $250 billion industry built on getting humans to write it cheaper has nowhere left to go. Investors acted accordingly, and the sector has since underperformed the broader market by 30% or more.

The industry has spent this year pushing back. It cut margins, restructured workforces, built platforms, and told clients that AI has not transformed their enterprises because their enterprises are a 30-year accumulation of SAP, Oracle, Workday and middleware that was never designed to talk to anything. And finally, Indian IT is who you call when systems need to talk to each other.

Despite all the hype, generative AI is moving slowly. Less than 15% of organizations are meaningfully deploying the new technology at their firms, according to investment bank UBS. And the narrative about the Indian IT dying is beginning to recede. Investment group CLSA titled a note this month, “Discussion moving beyond AI,” a sign that the existential panic has subsided enough for analysts to return to debating deal pipelines and vertical demand.

Enterprise AI has underwhelmed, though of course not from lack of enthusiasm or capital. Industry players say the tech remains inadequate for regulated industries where someone has to sign off on the output. They cite “workslop,” weak governance and high error rate as reasons the gap between AI as boardroom theatre and AI as functioning software remains so wide.

In the meantime, the Indian IT companies are reporting gains from the same force that was supposed to disrupt them.

***omitted: financials for Tata Consultancy, Wipro and Infosys***

Infosys now calls AI-led volume opportunities a bigger tailwind than the deflation threat, a reversal from 2024, and orderbooks held steady in the third quarter even as pricing pressure filtered through renewals. Infosys expects its own orderbook to grow more than 50% this quarter, anchored by an NHS deal worth $1.6 billion over 15 years.

The AI capex cycle has been concentrated among a handful of hyperscalers and labs, while the Fortune 500 is still figuring out what to do with what they have bought. Indian IT is betting that figuring out what to do is billable work. Channel checks suggest a two-to-three year window of preparatory work – data cleanup, cloud migration, system integration – before enterprise-wide AI becomes feasible, and that window is where Indian IT plans to earn its keep.

The IT industry has always been reactive to new technology, late to consulting and early-stage advisory but quick to capture implementation spend once the experiments end and the plumbing needs building. The firms believe AI will follow the same arc: a hype phase they mostly miss, followed by a deployment phase where scale, client relationships and tolerance for unglamorous work become valuable again.

TCS, which cut its headcount by 2%, is spending on the “less fashionable” layers – a 1GW data-centre network in India, an indigenous telecom stack, a sovereign cloud – alongside platforms called WisdomNext and MasterCraft. It acquired Coastal Cloud, a Salesforce advisory firm, for capability it did not want to build from scratch....

....MUCH MORE 

Monday, December 29, 2025

"The AI water issue is fake"

There are any number of reasons to argue against the current infrastructure build-out and the eventual draw on resources that may, or may not, be better used elsewhere but the water issues, except for draining aquifers, don't really matter.

Draining aquifers for pretty much anything other than drinking water is dumb. Draining aquifers for agriculture is insanity. And we do so much of it that the result can actually be measured as a contributor to sea level rise.*

From Andy Masley's substack, October 11, 2025:

AI data centers use water. Like any other industry that uses water, they require careful planning. If an electric car factory opens near you, that factory may use just as much water as a data center. The factory also requires careful planning. But the idea that either the factory or AI is using an inordinate amount of water that merits any kind of boycott or national attention as a unique serious environmental issue is innumerate. Individual data centers can sometimes stress local water systems in the way other industries do, but when you use AI, you are not contributing to a significant problem for water management compared to most other things you do in your day to day life. On the national, local, and personal level, AI is barely using any water, and unless it grows 50 times faster than forecasts predict, this won’t change. I’m writing from an American context and don’t know as much about other countries. But at least in America, the numbers are clear and decisive.

The idea that AI’s water usage is a serious national emergency caught on for three reasons:

  • People get upset at the idea of a physical resource like water being spent on a digital product, especially one they don’t see value in, and don’t factor in just how often this happens everywhere.

  • People haven’t internalized how many other people are using AI. AI’s water use looks ridiculous if you think of it as a small marginal new thing. It looks tiny when you divide it by the hundreds of millions of people using AI every day.

  • People are easily alarmed by contextless large numbers, like the number of gallons of water a data center is using. They compare these large numbers to other regular things they do, not to other normal industries and processes in society. They aren’t aware of how much water society uses on other normal industries.

Together, these create the impression that AI water use is a problem. It is not. Regardless of whether you love or hate AI, it is not possible to actually look at the numbers involved without coming to the conclusion that this is a fake problem. This problem’s hyped up for clicks by a lot of scary articles that completely fall apart when you look at the simple easy-to-access facts on the ground. These articles have contributed to establishing fake “common wisdom” among everyday people that AI uses a lot of water.

This post is not at all about other issues related to AI, especially the very real problems with electricity use. I want to give you a complete picture of the issue. I think AI and the national water system are both so wildly interesting that they can be really fun to read about even if you’re not invested in the problem.

Importantly, I am not saying that it’s impossible for data centers to ever cause any problems with water. They require careful planning in the same ways other large industrial buildings do. What I am saying is that right now no reasonable forecasts imply that data centers will rise to become a significant problem for water access in the US. Almost all complaints about their national water use are basically just saying “We should not have a new large industry in America using water.” The tax revenue per gallon from data centers is just so high that in many places they are among the best new buildings possible to benefit a community experiencing water scarcity, because any other industries using the same amount of water would generate way less tax revenue. Critics of data centers need to carefully weigh their water costs against the massive amounts of revenue they can bring in for everyday people, not just look at the water costs alone. The debate about building data centers should involve reasonable conversations between ecologists, economists, and city officials, not everyday voters shouting down local meetings with misleading statistics.

Contents 

A few important definitions 

Suppose I take a cup of water from a lake, and then immediately dump it back in. That doesn’t seem bad. Now I take a cup from the lake, and this time I evaporate it. That seems worse. Now I take a cup and spend some resources on making it drinkable. These all have very different costs and effects on the water system. We need words to describe it.

Water is complicated, but not too complicated. There are a few key definitions to understand. First:

  • Consumptive use removes water from a local system. Taking the cup of water and evaporating it is consumptive use. Evaporated water mostly does not return to its original source.

  • Non-consumptive use temporarily takes water from a local system, and returns it later unaffected. Taking the cup of water from the stream and pouring it back in is non-consumptive use.

Growing food is an example of consumptive use. Some of the water becomes part of the food itself. When the food is shipped away, the water leaves the local system.

Many data centers rely on evaporative cooling. This is the way water is consumptively used in data centers. They do not immediately evaporate all the water they are using. Most of it circulates through the cooling system repeatedly before evaporation.

Many reports on AI’s water use do not only include water in data centers, they also include the water consumed by the power plants data centers draw from. This leads to a second important distinction....

....MUCH MORE 

 HT: UnDark's "How Much Water Do AI Data Centers Really Use?", December 18.

And the aquifers? Last seen in May 2024's "Over a third of urban Chinese live in sinking cities":

....In fact people are depleting aquifers at such a rate that the H₂O that moves through the water cycle actually ends up in the oceans, raising sea levels. Not huge but measurable.

From the U.S. Geological Survey:

...Estimated global groundwater depletion during 1900–2008 totals ~4,500 km3, equivalent to a sea-level rise of 12.6 mm (>6% of the total). Furthermore, the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most recent period (2000–2008), when it averaged ~145 km3/yr (equivalent to 0.40 mm/yr of sea-level rise, or 13% of the reported rate of 3.1 mm/yr during this recent period)....

We pay pretty close attention to water and in the decade since we started pitching Nvidia we've had only two "water and AI" posts 

August 2025 - "AI Data Centers in Texas Used 463 Million Gallons of Water, Residents Told to Take Shorter Showers

And October 2025 - "Opportunity: "Next-Gen AI Needs Liquid Cooling"  which has such tidbits as:

....“The average power density in a rack was around 8 kW,” says Josh Claman, CEO of the startup Accelsius. “For AI, that’s growing to 100 kW per rack. That’s an order of magnitude. It’s really AI adoption that’s creating this real urgency” to figure out a better way to cool data centers.

Specifically, the urgency is to move away from fans and toward some sort of liquid cooling. For example, water has roughly four times the specific heat of air and is about 800 times as dense, meaning it can absorb around 3,200 times as much heat as a comparable volume of air can. What’s more, the thermal conductivity of water is 23.5 times as high as that of air, meaning that heat transfers to water much more readily.

“You can stick your hand into a hot oven and you won’t get burned. You stick your hand into a pot of boiling water and you can instantly get third-degree burns,” says Seamus Egan, general manager of immersion cooling at Airedale by Modine. “That’s because the liquid transfers heat much, much, much, much more quickly.”....

On the other hand we have dozens of posts on H2O. 

From trying to figure out various bets on water to: September 2019's - Water and Its Mysteries:

Isaac Asimov was fascinated with water and among his non-fiction books is The Left Hand of the Electron which references water over 200 times. And via Inference Review someone else with the fascination. Marc Henry, Professor of Chemistry, Materials Science, and Quantum Physics at the University of Strasbourg:
There are very few things that modern science does not understand. One of them is consciousness; the other is water.1 In the case of consciousness, the hard problem is designing good experiments; in the case of water, finding a theory that explains its properties.

Thermodynamic theories assume that any substance may be characterized by its internal energy U(S,V), where S and V are extensive variables, S is a measure of the number of accessible quantum states at a given temperature T, and V is a measure of the spatial extension of the system at a given pressure p. By the first law of thermodynamics dU(S,V) = T·dS – p·dV. Every substance has an equation of state (EoS) p = kBT·[1/V + B2(T)/V2 + …], where kB = 0.0138 zJ·K–1 is a universal constant. B2(T) is negative at low temperature and positive at high temperatures. At B2(T) = 0, attractive and repulsive forces are in balance. For an ideal gas, B2(T) = 0; for a system of hard spheres of diameter σ, B2(T) = 2π·σ3/3; for a van der Waals gas, B2(T) = b – a/kBT, with b and a measuring the repulsive and attractive forces between molecules.

Let MW designate molecular weight. The substance displaying the greatest ratio TB/MW = 80(8) K·Da–1 is water (H2O), followed by hydrogen fluoride (HF), and ammonia (NH3). TB/MW thus corresponds to the density of cohesive energy. The fact that water is an elixir for life is perfectly justified from a thermodynamic point of view. In chemistry, such high densities are usually associated with abnormally high ebullition points.

A phase diagram in the plane represents the domains where a substance may exist as a solid, liquid, or gas. Domain boundaries are marked by coexistence lines. It is there that two phases coexist. Substances undergo first-order transitions at coexistence lines; the system absorbs or releases energy, giving rise to discontinuous changes in volume and density. The sublimation line is the locus of points where a solid coexists with a gas and may extend from zero to the triple-point temperature T3. In the case of water, this triple point is observed at T3 = 0.01°C = 273.16 K and p3 = 611 Pa = 0.006 atm. The melting line is the locus of points from T3 to an infinite temperature. These phases have different symmetries. Full rotational invariance in the liquid phase turns into discrete symmetries in the crystal phase. The condensation line is the locus of points where a gas coexists with a liquid and extends from T3 to a critical point C. Above C, only a single-phase homogenous system exists. In the case of water, this critical point is observed at TC = 373.946°C = 647.096 K and pC = 22.06 MPa = 217.7 atm. This critical point occurs as soon as two phases share the same symmetry group.....MUCH MORE
*Archive.org: The Left Hand of the Electron - Isaac Asimov

Regarding Asimov, though he made his money writing science fiction he was a trained chemist: PhD, Columbia, post doc, taught biochem at Boston Uni's Med school etc.

And he was fascinated by water. See after the jump. 

That's from December 30, 2020's "Hydrogen Storage: A New Form Of Ice" which has this outro:

One of Asimov's riffs on water, "Not as We Know it: The Chemistry of Life" he uses this little paragraph as a jumping-off point:

Water is an amazing substance with a whole set of unusual properties which are ideal for life-as-we-know-it. So well fitted for life is it, in fact, that some people have seen in the nature of water a sure sign of Divine providence. This, however, is a false argument, since life has evolved to fit the watery medium in which it developed. Life fits water, rather than the reverse.

In his book "The Left Hand Of the Electron" Dr. A gathers essays he had written over the years:

The Thalassogens
Subject: common liquids
First Published In: Dec-70, The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction
Collection(s):
  • 1972 The Left Hand of the Electron

Cold Water
Subject: freezing of water
First Published In: Feb-71, The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction
Collection(s):
  • 1972 The Left Hand of the Electron

Hot Water
Subject: boiling points
First Published In: Jan-71, The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction
Collection(s):
  • 1972 The Left Hand of the Electron

If interested, here's the book at Archive.org. I did a quick search and saw 114 hits for 'water'.

So yeah, we pay attention to water. 

"China's finance ministry says fiscal policies will be more 'proactive' in 2026"

Riffing off of Martha Reeves singing Marvin Gaye: Everywhere around the world folks are waiting for stimulus, sweet, sweet stimulus.

From Reuters, December 27/28: 

China's finance ministry on Sunday said fiscal policies will be more proactive next year, reiterating its focus on domestic demand, technological innovation and a social safety net. 
The statement comes as trading partners urge the world's second-biggest economy to reduce its reliance on exports, underscoring the urgency to revive confidence at home where a prolonged property crisis has rippled through the economy, weighing on sentiment.
 
China will boost consumption and actively expand investment in new productive forces and people's overall development, the ministry said in a statement after a two-day meeting at which it set 2026 goals.
 
In addition, the ministry said it will support innovation to foster new growth engines, and improve the social security system by providing better healthcare and education services.
Other tasks for next year include promoting integration between urban and rural areas, and propelling China's transformation into a greener society.
 
China is likely to stick to its annual economic growth target of around 5% in 2026, government advisers and analysts told Reuters, a goal that would require authorities to keep fiscal and monetary spigots open as they seek to snap a deflationary spell....
....MORE 
 
Here's the house organ, China Daily, December 28:
China to pursue more proactive fiscal policy, finance minister says 
And the Vandellas via Genius lyrics:
[Verse 1]
Calling out around the world
Are you ready for a brand new beat?
Summer's here and the time is right
For dancing in the street

They're dancing in Chicago (Dancing in the street)
Down in New Orleans (Dancing in the street)
In New York City (Dancing in the street)

[Pre-Chorus]
All we need is music, sweet music
(Sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet music)
There'll be music everywhere (Everywhere)
There'll be swinging, swaying
And records playing
Dancing in the street, oh.... 
Amazing what stimmies can do. 

Government: "‘We wasted a lot of time’: The next shutdown deadline will be here sooner than you think"

From Politico, December 22:

No tangible progress toward funding the government was made before lawmakers left for the holidays. 

Congress has adjourned for the holidays having made no tangible progress toward funding the government ahead of a shutdown looming less than six weeks away.

The most conspicuous sign that Congress faces real obstacles before the Jan. 30 funding deadline came late Thursday, when Senate leaders gave up on passing a spending package and sent members home for two weeks, despite working for more than a month to appease senators who had objections.

But the impediments to reaching a deal that can pass both chambers are more extensive, starting with the fact that Republicans and Democrats on both ends of the Capitol have yet to start negotiating the details of the nine pending funding bills. The lack of bipartisan offer-trading is raising the likelihood of another short-term punt — or another shutdown.

“We wasted a lot of time because the Senate’s not negotiating yet,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in an interview last week. “When they’re ready to negotiate, we can move fast.”

Cole and his counterpart, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), just reached an agreement over the weekend on overall totals for the remaining spending bills Congress needs to pass. Lawmakers already passed three as part of the package that ended the shutdown last month — funding veterans and agriculture agencies, federal food aid and the Food and Drug Administration, along with Congress itself, through Sept. 30.

For more than a month Cole and Collins had been trying to bridge differences on key numbers while Senate leaders tried to advance a funding package that reflects consensus from only their side of the Capitol. Last week’s heave failed, but senators expect to try again in early January.

“We have different dynamics in our caucuses that we need to deal with,” Collins said this month as she left a meeting with Cole.

Democrats have been growing impatient. “They wasted all that time during the summer,” said Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the House’s top Democratic appropriator, about House Republicans spending the better part of this year crafting partisan funding bills.

Then Democrats had to wait for their GOP counterparts to strike the “majority to majority” deal on funding totals that finally arrived Saturday.

“Democrats are prepared. We’re ready to move. Let’s go,” DeLauro said.

Even if top appropriators can manage to agree on the nine remaining funding bills, other thorny dynamics threaten to complicate final passage in each chamber. The pitfalls include the mismatch between what appropriators want to spend and the demands of House fiscal hawks seeking flat funding for agencies — as well as the fact that Democrats will need to help pass any spending bills in the Senate, as they acutely illustrated with this fall’s record 43-day shutdown.

The totals top Republican appropriators just agreed upon are not public. But Cole said the deal will ensure overall funding would be below the level laid out in the stopgap funding patch enacted last month....

....MUCH MORE 

"The most unbelievable cyber statistic of 2025?"

From Biometric Update, December 26:

It’s look-back season again. Time to dust off old favourites like the World’s Most Surveilled Cities along with some seasonal newcomers like the Best Law of the Year (my vote goes to robot chicken fights).  

Compiling the end-of-year list has become a perennial cross-cultural ritual. Even if they’re factually dubious or arithmetically suspect, the whole point of these mostly pointless tables is that they change. The entertainment is in their revelation. But one ranked list comes out every year – and every year it’s the same list. In fact, it’s scarcely changed for decades. And here it is again. With over 21.5 million appearances, the world’s most used security password for 2025 was (drum roll):  “123456”. The runner up was – once again – “admin” having reportedly been used by more than 21 million accounts last year.

This is simply staggering, and not just because the passwords are so guessable. Most unbelievable is not the list itself but the fact that it doesn’t change. Every year it’s the same ‘winners’, despite billions of dollars’ investment in the tech and acres of column inches and advice against using weak passwords, or passwords at all.

At the close of a year when the audacious heist at the Louvre was assisted by the security system’s password being ‘Password’, the annual Nordpass survey shouldn’t come as a surprise to many.

Subscribers to Biometric Update get to learn of the latest risks to digital security and the leading-edge technology being developed to combat it. We hear daily from cyber-genius thought leaders and biometric tech wizards about how they are designing, developing and deploying countermeasures to hold back the tide of cyber and phishing attacks. With ever more fiendishly inventive scams, hostile state penetration and common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVE) leaving the person in the street aghast, experts harness their intellectual and technological horsepower to protect us year-round.

And yet the 2025 Most Used Password list brings only glad tidings to the most hapless hackers. The Nordpass statistics show how the Hollywood image of an evil genius hunched over a screen running fiendish ‘dictionary attacks’ isn’t even close to our biggest threat – and why a teenager with a first-gen laptop still has a better-than-even chance of hitting a digital jackpot. With text-based passwords like “Demo@123” still at the top of the year’s lists globally, from India, the USA, Germany and Australia, would-be cyber criminals don’t need to be John the Ripper sifting salting protocols in order to succeed. And our continued use of one password across multiple devices and accounts makes their life easier still.....

....About the author

Fraser Sampson, former UK Biometrics & Surveillance Camera Commissioner, is Professor of Governance and National Security at CENTRIC (Centre for Excellence in Terrorism, Resilience, Intelligence & Organised Crime Research) and a non-executive director at Facewatch.

....MUCH MORE 

I was not aware the UK had a camera commissar. 

"SoftBank Nears Deal for Data Center Investment Firm DigitalBridge"

 From Bloomberg, December 28/29:

SoftBank Group Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire DigitalBridge Group Inc., a private equity firm that invests in assets such as data centers, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Japanese conglomerate could announce an agreement as soon as Monday for New York-listed DigitalBridge, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Terms of the transaction, part of SoftBank’s campaign to take advantage of an AI-driven boom in digital infrastructure, couldn’t be learned.

Shares in DigitalBridge rose as much as 54% in premarket New York trading Monday. They were already up 23% this year through Friday, giving the company a market value of about $2.5 billion and an enterprise value of $3.8 billion including debt at the last close, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

A final agreement hasn’t been reached and details, including the timing, could still change, the people said. Representatives for SoftBank and DigitalBridge declined to comment.

SoftBank’s billionaire founder Masayoshi Son is trying to capitalize on soaring demand for the computing capacity that underpins artificial intelligence applications.

DigitalBridge, led by Chief Executive Officer Marc Ganzi, had about $108 billion of assets under management at the end of September, according to its website. Its portfolio includes digital infrastructure operators such as AIMS, AtlasEdge, DataBank, Switch, Vantage Data Centers and Yondr Group....

....MUCH MORE 

 Related:

February 2024 - The Infrastructure Theme Is For Real (PWR) 

June 2024 - Everyone Wants Asia-Pacific Data Centers: BlackRock's GIP Joins Blackstone, Others, Bidding For Australia's AirTrunk

March 2025 - "Money Managers Rush to Invest in The World’s ‘Essential Plumbing’"

And dozens more. If interested, the 'search blog' box often delivers what one desires. 

"Data Center Surge Reaches India as American Tech Giants Invest Billions"

 Following on December 10's "Amazon, Microsoft pledge mega AI investments in India" (AMZN; MSFT).

From the New York Times, December 26: 

Megacities in southern India are attracting enormous investments to help build artificial intelligence infrastructure to serve the world’s most data-hungry country.

Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, was striding across a stage in New Delhi, extolling his company’s $17.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence and the benefits it would bring to his native country’s 1.4 billion people. While he was speaking, Amazon made a rival announcement, promising to throw $35 billion into A.I.-driven projects across India.

A flood of money for data centers, cloud computing and other hardware has come to India. Two months before the near-simultaneous Microsoft-Amazon announcements, Google committed $15 billion to data centers in partnerships with two of India’s biggest conglomerates, the Adani Group and Bharti Airtel.

That $67.5 billion, to be spent over the next five years, is just the crest of a wave. A fourth American tech giant, Meta, is having a plant built near Google’s, as are India’s other biggest industrial houses, Reliance and Tata.

“This is going to be one of the largest single-sector investments that India’s ever seen,” said Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai.

These investments are vast in proportion to everything except for other A.I.-related investments. Trillions of dollars are at stake in this boom worldwide. In India, companies see a market with lots of room to run.

India hosts nearly 20 percent of the world’s data but only 3 percent of its storage. The United States has vastly more data centers than India, but India’s population, already the largest on the planet, is still growing, and its economy is expanding even faster.

“India is the largest consumer of data in the world, but with barely 5 percent of American data capacity,” Mr. Mukherjee said.

The enormous bets on India by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta underscore the seemingly limitless reaches of the A.I. boom. President Trump stunned India with 50 percent tariffs this summer, casting a pall over the friendly and longstanding economic relationship between the countries. Negotiators from Washington and New Delhi are still trying to find some accommodation on trade. Yet artificial intelligence money plows ahead.

India’s economic strengths and weaknesses look like a mismatch for the A.I. investments. The data centers will require cheap land, abundant electricity and water. India’s whole territory is packed with farmland, and much of it suffers from unreliable power grids and scarce water supply. It does need jobs for a huge and semi-idle labor force, but data centers require minimal staffing.

But India doesn’t want to miss out on the A.I. gold rush. It also doesn’t want to rely on data servers overseas. 

Since 2018, India has been weighing laws that would require digital functions to be based on servers in India. For national security’s sake, the government already insists that banks and WhatsApp, which Meta owns, keep their data local. Mr. Mukherjee said the possibility of officials’ widening those demands was motivating foreign companies to install servers within India.

Another reason to keep the data centers closer to the people who will be using them is that data slows the farther it has to travel. Delays of even milliseconds between faraway servers can pile up during complex processing, causing whole systems to lag. Until a few years ago, most of India’s data was stored on servers in Singapore, 1,800 miles away across the Bay of Bengal.

The data centers for Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta will join a growing number of smaller centers spread between India’s biggest urban areas. Most are along the coasts, where they can be connected to undersea cables.

Luring giant plants to Hyderabad, an inland city of 11 million, required a feat of salesmanship on the part of the local government. That job fell to Jayesh Ranjan, a special secretary in charge of tech and investment for the state who devised India’s first data-center policy in 2016.

Hyderabad’s first data centers, which were built before A.I. started demanding more capacity, are already saturated. Now there are four.

Industrial-grade electricity is hard to come by in most of India. But Hyderabad’s data parks are connected to multiple energy sources and flooded with abundant power at wholesale prices. India’s electricity grid is balky, but in the aggregate it now generates more power than it needs and most of it is renewable. American electricity costs an average of 18 cents a kilowatt-hour, but Hyderabad’s data centers pay only 7 cents....

....MORE

Now would be an excellent time to unleash thorium's potential. 

September 2025 - "India May Finally Be Ready for Its Atomic Age"

September 2025 - "This American nuclear company could help India’s thorium dream"

July 2013 - Nuclear: "Bill Gates Is Beginning to Dream the Thorium Dream"

The promise of thorium has been a siren song for the last couple decades, back in 2008 I dropped this comment at the WSJ's Environmental Capital blog:
    • C’mon guys, get with it!
      Global warming is so last year.
      Everybody, from Al Gore to the blogs you link to are reinventing themselves and talking energy.
      Energy production
      Energy cost.
      Energy security.
      It’s all about framing and re-framing.
      Low impact man’s time has come and gone. The eco-soirée has moved on to erudite discussions of thorium between nibbles at the canapés.
      By this winter the only references to carbon among the salon crowd might be Carbonic acid (H2CO3).
      You watch.
Okay, so I was early.

And earlier:

10:09 am May 30, 2007 
Climateer wrote:
I was just told I was a bit cryptic in the comment above.
If you want to know more about thorium you can catch the poet at http://www.corneliastreetcafe.com/
Here’s some awards he’s collected:
* Nobel Prize
* Priestley Medal
* Arthur C. Cope Award in Organic Chemistry
* Inorganic Chemistry Award (American Chemical Society)
* Pimentel Award in Chemical Education
* Award in Pure Chemistry
* Monsanto Award
* National Medal of Science
* National Academy of Sciences
* American Academy of Arts and Sciences Fellow
* American Philosophical Society Fellow
* Foreign Member, Royal Society

September 2021 - "Experimental reactor could hand China the holy grail of nuclear energy"

 This article is a bit hyperbolic but the fact China is getting close to firing it up is a pretty big deal.

I wish India were still pressing ahead. Fifteen years ago I would have bet on thorium reactors tripling India's GDP over a few decades but they decided to stick with coal....

 And many, many more.

However, as noted introducing September 2021's "Experimental reactor could hand China the holy grail of nuclear energy":

 This article is a bit hyperbolic but the fact China is getting close to firing it up is a pretty big deal.

I wish India were still pressing ahead. Fifteen years ago I would have bet on thorium reactors tripling India's GDP over a few decades but they decided to stick with coal....

"China industrial profits plunge at record pace: What’s driving slump"

From Pakistan's The News, December 27:

In November the profit fell 13.1 percent from a year earlier after a 5.5 percent decline in October

China’s industrial sector has witnessed the steepest fall in profits at a record pace over a year, indicating the signs of weakening domestic demand and persistent deflation.

According to statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in November the profit fell 13.1 percent from a year earlier after a 5.5 percent decline in October. However, Bloomberg Economics had predicted a decline of 15 percent.

Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit said the profit numbers align with broad-spectrum cooling in the fourth quarter’s economic activity.

While discussing cautiously optimistic economic outlook, Xu said, “Profitability will improve under 'anti-involution' as firms scale back investment over time, adding that companies could also earn more profits overseas, at the cost of their global peers.”

While talking about sectors, the profits in the automotive industry rose by 7.5 percent due to resilience and acceleration. High-tech manufacturing witnessed the rise in 10 percent profits on a year-on-year basis.

Factors responsible for profit slump

Weak domestic demand

Soft household consumption is considered the primary factor for slowing down the profit surge, thereby outshining gains made from the exports.

Factory-gate deflation

Persistent deflation at factory level continues to squeeze profit levels, making it hard for industrial firms to maintain profitability despite significant output.

Decline in fixed-asset investment

According to data, the significant decline in investment during the second half of 2025 is also responsible for slowing down economic activity.

Rhodium Group think tank suggests that China's economy grew by 2.5 to 3 percent in 2025 driven by a collapse in fixed-asset investment.

Sector-specific decline....

....MORE 

"AI Already Acting As Co-founder And Causing Growth Of Small Firms, Suggests Paper"

From India's OfficeChai, December 19:

Some in tech had predicted that the rise of single-person AI-enabled unicorns, and while that hasn’t quite yet materialized, there seems to be some sort of a thrust in the general direction.

A new working paper titled “AI as “Co-founder”: GenAI for Entrepreneurship” supports this sentiment, presenting evidence that the diffusion of Generative Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally reshaping the entrepreneurial landscape. The research posits that GenAI is effectively acting as a digital co-founder, automating core tasks and lowering the entry barriers for new ventures. To establish a causal link between GenAI diffusion and firm creation, the researchers employed a difference-in-differences framework, exploiting the unexpected November 2022 release of ChatGPT as a singular, global technological shock that sharply reduced start-up costs. Their methodology involved analyzing universal data on over 12 million firm registrations across China from 2021 through 2024, comparing changes in firm entry between hyper-local geo-coded grid cells—at a spatial resolution of roughly 5 square kilometers—that either had high or low pre-existing AI-specific human capital.

The study’s results demonstrated a striking asymmetry in new firm growth by size, validating the hypothesis that AI enables leaner ventures. Geographic grids with stronger AI-specific human capital experienced a pronounced rise in new firm entry following the launch of ChatGPT, a trend driven entirely by small firms. Conversely, the entry rate of large firms actually declined in these same high-AI areas, consistent with a structural shift toward organizational models that require less upfront capital. Further mechanisms explored in the paper revealed that these new firms were created with smaller amounts of capital, fewer shareholders, and smaller founding teams. The effect was strongest among first-time entrepreneurs, indicating that GenAI substitutes for the experience and managerial know-how typically possessed by serial founders. The growth was concentrated in AI-downstream sectors, such as retail, business services, online platforms, and digital-service industries, where GenAI tools can be readily applied for information-processing and customer-facing activities....

....MORE 

OfficeChai home. The current front page is just loaded with stuff you you won't see gathered together anywhere else.

e.g.  Ben Horowitz On Why The Best CEOs Are Decisive

Inspiration Is Perishable, Act On It Immediately: Naval Ravikant 

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Jobs: "The highest paid entry-level engineers in the world are at Hudson River Trading and Jane Street"

From eFinancial Careers, December 19: 

OpenAI might be paying exorbitant fees to poach quants and traders from prop trading firms, but it's a different story when it comes to engineering talent. Levels.fyi has released its annual compensation report which shows that the two best companies for entry-level engineering roles are Hudson River Trading and Jane Street.

Jane Street has historically won in this category but, this year, Hudson River took the crown. It bumped up pay to an eye-watering $400k on average, while Jane Street stayed flat at $350k. 3rd place OpenAI, in comparison, paid just $300k.

Five of the top 7 firms for level-1 engineers were finance firms in one way or another. Quant hedge fund Two Sigma came fourth, New York fintech Ramp came fifth, and Dutch prop trading firm Optiver came sixth; each paid between $255k-265k on average. Rounding out the list was data infrastructure firm Databricks....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at eFinancial Careers:

Citi's most stylish repo trader is now on the beach 

Artificial Intelligence: Large Language Models Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of AI

A quick hit from MIT Technology Review's Hype Correction series:

....01: LLMs are not everything

In some ways, it is the hype around large language models, not AI as a whole, that needs correcting. It has become obvious that LLMs are not the doorway to artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a hypothetical technology that some insist will one day be able to do any (cognitive) task a human can.

Even an AGI evangelist like Ilya Sutskever, chief scientist and cofounder at the AI startup Safe Superintelligence and former chief scientist and cofounder at OpenAI, now highlights the limitations of LLMs, a technology he had a huge hand in creating. LLMs are very good at learning how to do a lot of specific tasks, but they do not seem to learn the principles behind those tasks, Sutskever said in an interview with Dwarkesh Patel in November.

It’s the difference between learning how to solve a thousand different algebra problems and learning how to solve any algebra problem. “The thing which I think is the most fundamental is that these models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people,” Sutskever said.

It’s easy to imagine that LLMs can do anything because their use of language is so compelling. It is astonishing how well this technology can mimic the way people write and speak. And we are hardwired to see intelligence in things that behave in certain ways—whether it’s there or not. In other words, we have built machines with humanlike behavior and cannot resist seeing a humanlike mind behind them.

That’s understandable. LLMs have been part of mainstream life for only a few years. But in that time, marketers have preyed on our shaky sense of what the technology can really do, pumping up expectations and turbocharging the hype. As we live with this technology and come to understand it better, those expectations should fall back down to earth.  

02: AI is not a quick fix to all your problems....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also December 20's "AI: "A brief history of Sam Altman’s hype" (MIT Technology Review's Hype Correction series)". 

The intro to and outro from December 20, 2024's "What is an AI agent? A computer scientist explains the next wave of artificial intelligence tools

We've been saying it (sometimes literally*) for quite a while, chatbots are not the be-all and end-all of artificial intelligence.... 

AI: Chatbots Are Sooo 2023; Here Comes Interactive AI

"ChatBots Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of Artificial Intelligence":

Far from it.
And all the focus on ChatBots and LLMs are more than just a distraction, they are a perverse representation of what AI is doing and will do and could potentially cost you money or opportunity or both....

ChatBots Are For Children: "What’s Ahead for OpenAI? Project Strawberry, Orion, and GPT Next"

IEEE Spectrum - "What Are AI Agents?" 

"First impressions of ChatGPT o1: An AI designed to overthink it"

CoinTelegraph has developed an artisanal, homebrew AI specialty. Here's one of our previous visits:

AI Use Case: Biological Immortality By 2030
This would be a pretty good answer to the question "What is the use case for AI?"

But I don't buy it. AI will be like the nanotech revolution that never was, never that is, in the sense of a nanotech industry. Instead, as with nanotech, AI will be embedded in the processes and protocols of every facet of human existence and we won't even notice it.

 "AI agents are the 'next frontier' and will change our working lives forever"

 Former Google CEO Schmidt On The Ever-Increasing Tempo Of AI

Also:

Where Is Artificial Intelligence Going From Here: One Of The Gurus Speaks

Related, October 2025:

Can AI Identify An AI Bubble?

Google AI says no:

While AI can be a powerful tool for detecting patterns that might indicate a bubble, it cannot definitively determine if a bubble exists
. The complexity of human behavior and unpredictable events means AI models are best used as a component of analysis, not a replacement for human judgment...