Friday, April 4, 2025

Dear Fellow Members Of The Laptopocracy: You Are Not Having A Bad Day

....This is a bad day.

From SciTechDaily:

As the inhabitants of an ancient Middle Eastern city now called Tall el-Hammam went about their daily business one day about 3,600 years ago, they had no idea an unseen icy space rock was speeding toward them at about 38,000 mph (61,000 kph).

Flashing through the atmosphere, the rock exploded in a massive fireball about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) above the ground. The blast was around 1,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The shocked city dwellers who stared at it were blinded instantly. Air temperatures rapidly rose above 3,600 degrees Fahrenheit (2,000 degrees Celsius). Clothing and wood immediately burst into flames. Swords, spears, mudbricks, and pottery began to melt. Almost immediately, the entire city was on fire.

Some seconds later, a massive shockwave smashed into the city. Moving at about 740 mph (1,200 kph), it was more powerful than the worst tornado ever recorded. The deadly winds ripped through the city, demolishing every building. They sheared off the top 40 feet (12 m) of the 4-story palace and blew the jumbled debris into the next valley. None of the 8,000 people or any animals within the city survived – their bodies were torn apart and their bones blasted into small fragments.

About a minute later, 14 miles (22 km) to the west of Tall el-Hammam, winds from the blast hit the biblical city of Jericho. Jericho’s walls came tumbling down and the city burned to the ground.

It all sounds like the climax of an edge-of-your-seat Hollywood disaster movie. How do we know that all of this actually happened near the Dead Sea in Jordan millennia ago?....

....MUCH MORE

So...blinded first, then your meatsack body begins to boil, then you are sandblasted to dust and what's left ends up spread over dozens of square miles along with the dust that used to be family and friends..

That's a bad day.

The whole paper in Nature is pretty amazing.

Originally posted September 27, 2021

Also September 9, 2023

Dear Russia And Germany, Watch Out

And no, drones have not ended the era of the main battle tank.

Taking lessons learned from the war in Ukraine the machines are nastier than ever.

From Nineteen45, April 2:

K2 Black Panther Tanks Will Soon Be in Russia’s Backyard 

Summary and Key Points: South Korea’s K2 Black Panther tank, featuring advanced technology like a hydropneumatic suspension, automatic loading system, and NATO-compatible ammunition, has captured Poland’s attention.

-Poland’s significant purchase of up to 1,000 K2 tanks highlights Warsaw’s strategic shift to modernize its military, replacing Soviet-era tanks and significantly boosting NATO interoperability.

-This ambitious military deal also involves local production and technology transfer, enhancing Poland’s defense industry. Concurrently, North Korea’s arms exports to Russia illustrate a Korean arms rivalry.

-Both Koreas leverage the war in Ukraine to strengthen international partnerships, showcasing their evolving roles in global military markets and geopolitical dynamics.

Here Comes the K2 Black Panther Tank from South Korea 

The K2 Black Panther is South Korea’s primary main battle tank. It is distinct from the earlier K1 design, which is a derivative of the American M1 Abrams main battle tank. Poland is going all-in on the K2 in a massive deal with South Korea.

“The deal, signed 22 July, will see up to 1,000 Hyundai Rotem K2 Black Panther main battle tanks, 672 Hanwha Defense K9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled artillery and 48 Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 Fighting Eagle light fighter ground-attack aircraft acquired in stages that include technology transfer and local production,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank explained.

“Initial batches of 180 K2s, 48 K9s and 12 FA-50s will be standard production versions and deliveries should begin this year,” IISS wrote. “Polish versions will then be developed with production of the K2PL, K9PL and FA-50PL beginning in 2026, 2024 and 2025 respectively. Whilst all FA-50PLs will be built in South Korea, Polish production of the K2PL and K9PL will begin in 2026. Joint development of follow-on tank and howitzer systems is also planned.”

The Design of K2 Black Panther Tank 

One of the K2’s more notable features is its hydropneumatic suspension, which allows for independent control of each of the tank’s 12 road wheels. This affords the tank excellent off-road mobility and the ability to essentially raise or lower either end or side of the tank into a kneeling or a heads-up position....

....MUCH MORE 

Regarding Deutschland in the headline that's a reference to January 2024's "Ukraine’s Leopard 2 tanks are nearly all destroyed or broken"
Poland gives South Korea* a high-five while thinking "Berlin, here we come." (just kidding) 

With this outro:

As noted a year ago the Leopard 2 is not the wunderwaffe it was touted as and could be beaten by 8th century jihadis in Syria.
*Regarding South Korea: "Poland’s Blooming Relationship With South Korea". 

And the outro from ""Saab Signs Contract for Two SIGINT ships for Poland" (plus some other stuff)": 

....Beginning with the South Korea deal. Poland isn't simply buying big iron.  As noted in August's "Watch Out Lithuania: Poland Is Militarizing Faster Than Any Nation In Europe" as part of the agreement Poland has a license to build the tanks:

....Poland will import the first batch of 180 K2PL tanks, with another 800 manufactured in Poland, under the name “Wilk” (“Wolf”)....

These aren't just any tanks. From the introduction to September's "Poland Will Have a Large and Modern Tank Army

One of the odder comments on Russia's war against Ukraine was making the rounds last week, to the effect that Russia buying munitions from North Korea was a sign of weakness.

It is more likely a sign that North Korea's war plans are very similar to Russia's, lots, and I mean lots of artillery, and the shells to go with them. It actually seems natural.

In the same vein, Poland's joint venture with South Korea to secure a whole bunch of tanks seems very smart. These are the tanks Seoul developed to hold back the North Koreans and they are reputed to be among the best in the world....

Which was followed by: "...And Helicopters, Poland Will Have A LOT Of Attack Helicopters":

...Deadly nasty killing machines. 

So the distance from Warsaw to Brussels being 1160 km (721 miles) and with a ferry range of 1,900km the copters would need to be refueled outbound and for a return trip. Unless it's a kamikaze mission.

Wait, what am I saying, they aren't going to attack EU headquarters. 
Right?
Probably just Berlin and back home for dinner. 

Maybe Strasbourg.

There is much more than just buying arms and armaments going on here. Because of the hostility toward Poland's government from Brussels, and the possibility that at some point in the future NATO's Article 5 will be invoked by Poland only to be met with reluctant mobilization on the part of the other NATO members or, worse, silence, Poland wants at minimum to have the capability to slow-down any future attack. Memories are long in that part of the world and everyone remembers what happened to Czechoslovakia in 1938, what with the 'Peace for our time' and all. 

This attitude on the part of the Poles is exactly the same as their reasoning on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, February 2018: "Polish PM: Nord Stream II Would Make Russia Free to act Against Ukraine, So Must Not be Built".

When Germany and the EU decided to go ahead with the pipeline, despite a half-decade of warnings* from Poland, the Poles bought themselves a geopolitical insurance policy, the President Lech Kaczyński LNG facility in Świnoujście, about eight feet from the German border on the Baltic. Which they expanded. And expanded again while offering Germany some of the gas if Germany would just think twice about Nord Stream 2.

The thing to know about insurance policies is you have to pay the premium up front and it can be a very visible cost. Which will only seem prudent should something bad happen.

But there are some things you can't measure in zlotys alone.

"Trump tariffs may drive bad loans in China to pandemic-high levels, S&P says"

From the South China Morning Post, April 3:

Non-performing assets ratio could approach 6.5 per cent seen during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2022 if tariffs hit harder

Banks in China could face more bad loans, potentially hitting 6.4 per cent of total lending next year, according to a forecast by S&P Global Ratings, as higher US tariffs weigh on an economy that is still struggling to shake off the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The warning came in a report on Thursday, after President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on all US trade partners, including a 10 per cent levy on all imports and higher rates for about 60 countries with large trade surpluses against the US. China will face an additional 34 per cent rate, on top of the 20 per cent imposed earlier this year.

If the tariffs hit harder and China’s property sector does not hit its bottom, banks’ non-performing assets (NPA) ratio could approach the peak of 6.5 per cent seen during the Covid lockdown period in 2022, S&P said. As a result, credit losses could rise to 2.7 trillion yuan (US$370.4 billion) next year and exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2027, it added.

“It never rains but it pours,” the report said, referring to the multiple challenges faced by the world’s second-largest economy in recent years, including the pandemic and the property market crisis. “And it now faces additional strains from more US tariffs on its exports.”

Higher-than-expected tariffs could hit export-related sectors and employment, stoking loan delinquencies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and unsecured retail lending at a time when domestic economic conditions were still uncertain, the rating firm said.

Chinese home-appliance makers could be among the hardest hit in what Jefferies analysts called a “nightmare-come-true” scenario. For textile and footwear contract suppliers, bearing the full tariff brunt could wipe out 50 to 67 per cent of their profits from selling to the US, they added.

Smaller companies had less financial flexibility to absorb the costs of additional tariffs or pass them on to consumers, according to S&P....

....MUCH MORE

Capital Markets: "Friday: Tariffs, US Jobs, Powell, and Melting Equities"

The action in the dollar is going to fall somewhere on the interesting—terrifying spectrum. *

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  There appear to be two-forces at work that has helped the US dollar recover. First, as the market continues to debate whether the reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating ploy and in this tug-of-war of sorts, President Trump's declaration that he is open to "phenomenal offers" plays into that view. Still, the fact that Israel got rid of all of its tariffs on the US and still was hit with a 17% levy is notable. Second, there may be some position-adjustment ahead of the US jobs report. So far, the weakness in the US labor market appears in the soft, survey data, not the hard data, like weekly initial jobless claims. The rise in continuing claims is consistent with slowing in employment. A few hours after the jobs report, Fed Chair Powell will speak about the economy. This could be another source of volatility. However, we suspect he will be reluctant to signal much concern about the volatility of the stock market, i.e., no resurrection of the simplistic--stock market falls sharply, and Fed will cut" so-called Fed put.

The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. German factory orders disappointed and BOJ Governor Ueda recognized the unsettled global environments. Emerging market currencies are mixed with Asia-Pacific outperforming central Europe. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at its highest for the year. Few equity markets have escaped the selling pressure and US index futures are off 0.5%-1.0%, which warns of the gap lower opening. Bonds are still the safe haven. European 10-year yields are off 6-10 bp, and the peripheral premiums are widening. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off eight basis points to about 3.95%. Gold, ironically, is trading more like a risk asset and is off 0.75% today, but above yesterday's low (~$3054). May WTI has extended yesterday's dramatic sell-off, spurred by OPEC+ decision to boost sales around three-times more than expected and broader growth concerns. The contract reached about $64.25, its lowest since last September.

USD: The dollar fell sharply and broadly yesterday. The Dollar Index dropped by almost 1.7%, its largest drop since November 2022. It fell from a high Wednesday near 104.30 to a low a near 101.25 but managed to settle above slightly102.00. The sell-off was so sharp that the Dollar Index spent most of the European and North American session below three standard deviations from the 20-day moving average (~112.20)....

....MUCH MORE
*
Related: "Has China Run Out of Dollars? (will Europe?)"

"China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S."

From CNBC, April 4:

China’s finance ministry on Friday said it will impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10 in the wake of duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration earlier this week, according to state news outlet Xinhua.

This breaking news story is being updated.

Also at CNBC:

Dow futures drop more than 800 points after China retaliates with tariffs on U.S. goods: Live updates

Now 900 points.

European shares drop at the end of brutal week after Trump's tariff blow

First up, from Reuters via MSN April 4: 

European shares dipped on Friday, heading for a steep weekly loss, as investors grappled with prospects of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners.

The pan-European STOXX index fell 0.9% at 0710 GMT, taking its losses for the week to 4.4%, the sharpest weekly decline since June 2022. 

Europe was hit with a 20% U.S. import tariff rate, prompting traders to increase their bets on interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank to shore up economic growth.

European banks, sensitive to economic outlook, racked up the most losses among sectors, shedding 3.8%....

....MORE

And from Reuters via Investing.com, April 3:

’Tariff avoiders’ among surprise bright spots dappling Europe markets 

Shares of surprise tariff avoiders like pharmaceuticals and drinks firms and rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate were among the few to post gains in Europe on Thursday, as fears of a global recession sent wider markets tumbling.

The broad STOXX 600 dropped to its lowest in two months and was last down 1.2%, but U.S. index futures fell more, around 3%, as President Donald Trump’s drastic trade tariffs sent investors out of stocks into the safety of bonds and gold. [MKTS/GLOB]

The euro itself roared higher, heading for its biggest one-day rise in almost a decade, up over 2.5% at one point at $1.1147, as investors dumped dollars.

Among the gloom in the stocks world, surprise bright spots appeared, particularly in those sectors where investors had been bracing for high tariffs, but did not see their worst fears materialise.

European spirit makers were expected to see large tariffs after a social media post from Trump last month suggesting as much. After they avoided any particularly special harsh treatment, however, shares rose on Wednesday.

Diageo (LON:DGE) and Davide Campari (LON:0ROY) were up over 2%, rebounding after recent tumbles.

"The scale of tariffs for spirits stocks is less than feared," Citi analysts said, adding that markets had anticipated around 25% tariffs on the sector.

Pharmaceuticals also posted gains. British drugmakers GSK and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) each rose over 1% after Trump spared pharmaceutical products from wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs....

....MUCH MORE

Thursday, April 3, 2025

"US-China decoupling: Washington bans diplomats and staff from romance and sex with Chinese"

 From the South China Morning Post, April 3:

Those who do not receive exemption and are found violating the ban will be subject to immediate expulsion from China, according to report 

The US government has imposed a sweeping ban prohibiting American diplomats, their families and security-cleared contractors in China from engaging in romantic or sexual relationships with Chinese citizens, Associated Press has reported.

The policy applies to staff at the US embassy in Beijing and consulates in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang and Wuhan, as well as the consulate in Hong Kong. US personnel stationed outside China or those already in pre-existing relationships with Chinese citizens might be exempt, the report said, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter.

A less restrictive version of the policy was introduced last summer, prohibiting US personnel from having “romantic and sexual relations” with Chinese citizens working as guards and other support staff at the US embassy and five consulates in China.

The ban, implemented days before US ambassador Nicholas Burns left his post in January.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun declined to comment on the issue on Thursday afternoon, referring reporters to the US government.

“I think you’d better ask the American side about this question,” Guo said....

....MUCH MORE  

Possibly tit-for-tat, so to speak, for February 13's "How Not To Get Seduced By Foreign Spies: China’s Spy Agency":

....Recently, it warned people:

– not to get seduced by “tall, beautiful people”

In any event, Congressman Swalwell hardest hit

"U.S., India Talk Trade as New Tariffs Hit"

Modi's people will figure something out. Indian people have been negotiating deals for five thousand years.

From Foreign Policy, April 2:

South Asia Brief on where bilateral negotiations stand. 

U.S. and Indian officials concluded an initial round of discussions on a bilateral trade deal in New Delhi over the weekend. Talks regarding specific sectors are expected in the next few weeks. The two countries committed to pursuing a deal in February, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.

The time frame is tight, with an agreement on the first phase of a trade agreement targeted for the fall. Trade negotiations are especially urgent for India because they are playing out against Washington’s new reciprocal tariffs, which Trump was expected to unveil on Wednesday.

The levies could hit India hard: The country has a nearly $50 billion trade deficit with the United States in its favor. New Delhi’s tariff rates are among the world’s highest; on average, it currently charges more than 10 percent more on U.S. imports than the United States charges on Indian imports. Trump has repeatedly singled out India as a tariff offender.

The U.S.-India trade deal is intended to reduce both tariff and nontariff barriers, meaning that reaching an agreement could help blunt the effects of any new U.S. duties on India’s economy....

....MORE

ICYMI: Japan's Magaquake Warning—Worst-Case Scenario Revised

From Tokyo's NHK, April 1:

Japan's mega-quake death toll estimated at about 300,000 in worst-case scenario 

A government panel has revised its damage estimate for an anticipated mega-quake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's Pacific coast. It predicts that an earthquake of up to magnitude 9 will claim about 298,000 lives. Seismologists say there is a roughly 80 percent chance of such a quake occurring in the next 30 years. What does the worst-case scenario look like?

The panel now estimates that the seismic intensity would reach the maximum of 7 on the Japanese scale in 10 prefectures, and lower 6 or above in 24 prefectures.

It also says tsunamis at least 10 meters high could hit Tokyo and 12 other prefectures from the Kanto through Kyushu regions. Some areas could be hit by waves higher than 30 meters.

Bracing for the worst


The panel predicts a worst-case death toll of 298,000 if the earthquake occurs late at night in winter. That's slightly down from the previous figure published a decade ago. The highest number of deaths is expected to be caused by tsunami....

....MUCH MORE including graphs, maps, analysis, pretty much everything a risk manager needs.

"Asian markets extend losses amid Trump tariff uncertainty"

From the Washington Post, April 3: 

President Donald Trump suggested he might be open to doing deals over tariffs, raising hopes in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. But China is preparing to retaliate.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Stock markets in Asia fell sharply when they opened on Friday, continuing the steep declines recorded in the United States, amid fears of a full-blown global trade war and an economic recession sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz.

China, one of the hardest hit by this week’s tariffs, has vowed to take “firm countermeasures” to retaliate, although Beijing has not yet provided any detail.

Analysts say the escalation diminishes chances of negotiations between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, but other regional leaders seized on Trump’s suggestion he might be open to cutting deals, despite his previous insistence that he was not interested in discussing exemptions to his tariffs.

Amid the ongoing uncertainty, shares in Australia, Japan and South Korea opened lower on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei-225 fell by more than 2 percent and the Topix by almost 3 percent when trading opened in Tokyo, with automakers including Toyota and Honda particularly badly hit, each down more than 5 percent Friday morning, after Trump introduced a 25 percent tariff on all foreign-made cars and car parts.

Australia’s ASX-200 declined almost 2 percent in early trading Friday and South Korea’s KOSPI lost 1.15 percent, although it quickly recovered. Trading in China and Hong Kong was closed on Friday for the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday.

In the U.S. on Thursday, stocks closed down sharply, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling close to 6 percent for the day and the S&P 500 notching its biggest one-day drop since summer of 2020, closing down 4.8 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 4 percent.

On a day he branded “Liberation Day,” Trump on Wednesday announced a 10 percent tariff that would apply to imports from every country, and a separate set of what he called “reciprocal” tariffs that impose a higher country-specific rate.

These included a new tariff of 34 percent on Chinese goods, on top of the 20 percent levy already imposed as Trump accused Beijing of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl and its precursors into the U.S. It is also in addition to existing tariffs on goods including some appliances, machinery and clothing that were already as high as 45 percent.

“Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism will lead nowhere,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Thursday. “The U.S. needs to correct its wrongdoings and resolve trade disputes with countries, including China, through consultation with equality, respect and mutual benefit.”

Trump also closed the “de minimis” loophole that allowed items being shipped or brought into the United States that are worth less than $800 to circumvent import taxes, a move that will hit customers of Chinese e-commerce sites like Shein and Temu particularly hard.

Trump also slapped duties of 24 and 26 percent on Japan and South Korea, respectively — both are key U.S. security allies and major trading partners — and 32 percent on Taiwan, although he exempted its advanced semiconductors from the levies.

Trump also targeted many of the countries that had benefited from companies’ efforts to diversify supply chains away from China: Cambodia was stung with a 49 percent tariff, Vietnam with 46 percent, and Thailand, 36 percent....

....MUCH MORE

"Asia Bears Brunt of Trump Tariffs, Needs to Ease, Economists Say"

From Bloomberg, April 3:

Asia is bearing the brunt of new US tariffs which will drag on regional growth through weaker business investment and sentiment, requiring central banks to step in with more interest-rate cuts, economists reckon.

“The impact on ASEAN is more pronounced this time,” said Selena Ling, head of research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Given a narrower tariff gap between China and previous popular destinations such as Vietnam and Thailand, China’s prior strategy of routing exports through ASEAN may now be less effective. As a result, the trade dynamic may shift again.”

The Trump administration’s tariffs come at a time when Asian economies are already grappling with tepid growth, with sticky inflation keeping some central banks on high alert. While Australia and New Zealand are among countries that got off relatively lightly with a 10% levy, as small, open economies they are particularly reliant on global trade to underpin prosperity.

Money markets are now pricing four more rate cuts this year by Australia’s central bank, up from three previously, which would take its cash rate to 3.1%.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iTK_aZbgiJ9w/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/-1x-1.png

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have cut growth forecasts for Asia and predict an easier monetary policy stance in India, South Korea and several Southeast Asian economies including Indonesia and Malaysia.

Read More: Trump Derails China+1 Strategy, Leaving Companies No Escape

There will be a “hard-hitting impact” on economic growth for the region, OCBC’s Ling said, singling out Vietnam as the country set to see the biggest impact, followed by Thailand. She anticipates Indonesia and India will be “more insulated” and the Philippines the least impacted. Ling also revised her central bank forecasts, adding 50-basis points of cuts each for the five countries....

....MUCH MORE

Big If True: Kazakhstan Announced The Discovery Of A Huge Rare Earth Deposit

From Eurasianet, April 3:

Kazakhstan makes bombshell announcement in advance of Central Asia-European Union summit
Astana stokes competition for region’s rare earths.

On the eve of the first-ever Central Asia-European Union summit, Kazakhstan announced the discovery of vast deposits of rare earths, a big nugget of information clearly designed to attract foreign investment.

The two-day summit kicked off on April 3 in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, with the leaders of Central Asian states, along with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in attendance. 

The EU’s primary objective is to deepen its trade & investment relations with the five Central Asian states, capitalizing on the growing interest of regional leaders in diversifying their options via the development of the Middle Corridor trade route. Access to Central Asia’s abundant mineral resources has also rapidly emerged as a point of interest for both the United States and EU.

“Reaffirming our commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape, we have decided to upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership,” a draft EU statement declares, according to a version seen by RFE/RL reporters.

The Kazakh announcement on April 2 about the discovery of more than 20 million metric tons of metal deposits is sure to be a major topic of discussion at the summit. If verified, the discovery would give Kazakhstan the world’s third largest reserves of rare earth metals, behind only China and Brazil. The newly discovered deposits contain neodymium, cerium, lanthanum and yttrium, elements used in the production of a wide array of advanced technological devices, including medical equipment, car batteries, catalytic converters, lasers and optics....

....MUCH MORE

It's a big country, they have space for a lot of resources. Here's a September 2022 post with some additional back-links:
"In His First Trip Abroad Since The Start Of The Pandemic, China's Xi Will Visit Producer Of Half The World's Uranium"

Priorities. The Xi-man is not playing around.

From XeroHedge:

In his first overseas trip since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the country responsible for roughly half of the world's uranium production.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Uranium%20production.png?itok=QNvnVwpf

On September 14, Xi will visit Kazakhstan, the SCMP reported citing a Monday announcement at a briefing by the Kazakh foreign ministry. It follows months of speculation about the location of Xi’s first trip abroad since he went to Myanmar in January 2020. Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy has curtailed travel inside and out of the country, and Xi and other senior figures have not left China since the start of the pandemic.

Of the 25 Politburo members, only foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi has travelled abroad. Meanwhile, the country’s No 3 official, Li Zhanshu, will go to Russia on Wednesday in a sign that China’s top officials are resuming international travel. Li, head of the legislature, will also visit Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea.

As reported previously, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has said Xi will visit Bali for the Group of 20 summit in November - where Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy will also be present.

Xi will meet Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for talks the host government said were “aimed at further deepening the eternal comprehensive strategic partnership and developing political, trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation”.

The visit could be followed by a trip to Uzbekistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, according to the SCO’s official Telegram channel. In a post on Sunday, the SCO said that “the leaders of all states confirmed their full-time participation in the summit” in Samarkand, to be held on September 15 and 16.

More importantly, in Uzbekistan, Xi would be expected to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin for the first time since the pair announced a “no limits” partnership on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Just three weeks later, Russian forces invaded Ukraine, leading to much speculation about how much Xi and other Chinese leaders knew about the operation in advance.

The pair have been in telephone contact since – notably on Xi’s 69th birthday on June 15. At the time, Chinese state media quoted Xi as saying that “China is willing to continue to support the Russian side on issues related to core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security, to work closely on strategic cooperation between the two countries”.

Russia is one of eight member states of the SCO, along with China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. There are four observer states in the process of acceding to the forum – Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia – while Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Türkiye are dialogue partners.....

....MUCH MORE

There is another smaller group whose membership overlaps with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: 

Get To Know The Eurasian Economic Union

Membership in the EAEU was the overt reason Russia moved to help Kazakhstan put down the coup attempt in early January. It seems so long ago but it's been less than 80 days.

Well the EAEU and the fact Kazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer, with output larger than the next four biggest - combined.

And the fact that, as seen in 2014's "Market Differentiation: "Kazakh leader may drop the 'stan' in Kazakhstan"" it is located in a very interesting neighborhood:

One of these is not like the others:

stans_map.bmp
From Reuters...MORE

That post was followed, in May 2014, after the coup in Ukraine, by:
"Getting the Band Back Together: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan to Formalize Trade Bloc (Kyrgyzstan, Armenia hope to join by year end)"

And then in October 2014 by: "Back In the U.S.S.R: Russia Completes Ratification of Eurasian Economic Union".

Why all this history?  So that when the talk at next week's salon turns to Eurasia our readers can say: I was just reading about that in "Meanwhile In Kazakhstan: "EAEU and China will develop a draft international financial system" (March 14) or these two from Russia Briefing:
March 23
Kazakhstan-Eurasian Economic Union Trade Up 29% In January
Kazakhstan’s bilateral trade with other member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia reached US$1.7 billion in January 2022, which is 29% higher than the same period last year, according to Kazakhstan’s Statistics Committee.....MUCH MORE

And March 22: "Russia And Iran To Begin Banking & Finance Cooperation"

And then, visualizing the map, think about all the countries we've been posting on this month, Russia, China, India, Afghanistan, Iran and all the rest and maybe say to ones self:

"What the hell is going on?"

Unfortunately, when the U.S. does Kazakhstan it seems to be for personal gain:  

Hunter Biden's Excellent Kazakhstan Adventure

Bill Clinton Linked To Kazakhstan Uranium Scandal

Random Commentary On The Tariffs (Roubini, Summers, El-Erian, the usual)

From Business Insider, April 3:

Here's what the smartest people in markets and economics are saying about Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs 

  • President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday.
  • Many commentators have questioned the tariffs and highlighted their potential economic consequences.
  • One said Trump was unlikely to U-turn on the tariffs, so it was time to "sell the dip" not buy it.

President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday — and people have been reacting as global markets take a hammering.

Here is what big names in business and economics have been saying:

Business Roundtable
Joshua Bolten, CEO of the association that represents more than 200 CEOs, said in a statement the tariffs "run the risk of causing major harm to American manufacturers, workers, families and exporters. Damage to the US economy will increase the longer the tariffs are in place and may be exacerbated by retaliatory measures."

He said the Business Roundtable "supports President Trump's goal of securing better and fairer trade deals with our trading partners" but called on him to introduce "additional reasonable exemptions" and a "transparent, predictable exclusion process."

Larry Summers
"Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much," the former Treasury Secretary wrote on X. "The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now closer to $30 trillion."

Summers also said the tariffs were the most "expensive" and "masochistic" the US had imposed in decades.

Mohamed El-Erian
"The price action in global financial markets in the immediate aftermath of the US tariff announcement points to major worries about global economic growth," the former Pimco CEO and chief economic advisor at Allianz said on X. 
 
Mariana Mazzucato
"These tariffs will cause inflation in the United States; they will cause lower consumer power of US workers. The estimates are between $1,700 to $5,000 per family in terms of the costs of these tariffs," the economics professor at University College London told ITV's "Peston" program. 
 
Nouriel Roubini
The professor emeritus of the NYU Stern School of Business said the "Liberation Day" label was "Orwellian doublespeak."

"Whatever the consequences of these tariffs will be — ie lower growth and higher inflation and how much of it depending on the eventual size of these tariffs post-negotiations that will be ugly and long-drawn. There is absolutely no "liberation" at all in them: not for US consumers, workers and businesses, let alone for the rest of the world," he said on X.

Paul Krugman
"I guess it's just possible that when we get details about the Trump tariffs they will be lower than what he just announced, but based on what he said, he's gone full-on crazy," said Paul Krugman, Nobel-winning economist and former MIT and Princeton University professor wrote on Substack.

"If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them," Krugman added....

....MORE

"Trump tariffs: List of global responses and countermeasures"

From Reuters, April 3:

Governments around the world pledged counter measures on the U.S. after President Donald Trump unveiled on Wednesday a new baseline 10% tariff on goods from all countries plus reciprocal tariffs on those that his administration says have high barriers to U.S. imports.
Here is what some governments said about what they would - and would not - do in response.
 
EUROPEAN UNION
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is finalising a package of measures in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and is "now preparing for further countermeasures to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail". Trump targeted the EU with a 20% reciprocal tariff.

EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said he would talk to his U.S. counterparts on Friday and would devote "adequate" time to further negotiations on the tariffs. "But we won't stand idly by, should we be unable to reach a fair deal", he said.
 
CHINA
China's commerce ministry said Beijing "firmly opposes" the reciprocal tariffs and "will take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests," after Trump imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on the country.

JAPAN
Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto called the reciprocal tariffs "extremely regrettable" and said Tokyo would urge the U.S. to exempt Japan from tariff measures.

Japan would consider its response, he said, in a "bold and speedy manner." Tokyo faces a 24% reciprocal tariff.

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER ROBERT HABECK
"Donald Trump buckles under pressure, corrects his announcements under pressure, but the logical consequence is that he must also feel the pressure, and this pressure must now be exerted from Germany, from Europe."....
....MUCH MORE (but not all the 180 countries and two uninhabited Antarctic islands)

For some reason Habeck's comment reminds me of a haiku. From February 2008:

Asian Markets Fall Like Cherry Blossoms in Gentle Spring Rain

Auspicious update, below.

Stocks closed generally mournful and reflective.

Currency devaluation reflects silently on still and glassy water.

Traditional Japanese view of the cherry blossoms (sakura) with reflecting water and a shrine (the Jefferson Memorial) in Washington, D.C..
Traditional Japanese view of the cherry blossoms (sakura) with reflecting water and a shrine (the Jefferson Memorial) in Washington, D.C..


Invest in Kirin

Mindfulness overrated

Sensei insensate

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is down 1.739 to 101.952. Who needs a Mar-a-Lago Accord?

Capital Markets: "The Day After"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: Little would one know from looking at the US economic outperformance and the record-high household net worth, but the US President said that global trade has “looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered” the US economy. Rather than some sophisticated analysis to measure trade and non-trade barriers as the President Trump suggested, the so-called "kind reciprocity," appears to be a simple function of US imports as a percentage of the overall bilateral trade deficit. The 10% minimum is effective April 5 and the reciprocity levy on April 9. Many are still holding out the possibility that concessions by other countries will bring some relief. Yet, look at Israel, which removed all tariffs on US goods earlier this week and was still slapped with a 17% reciprocal tariff.

The dollar has been sold aggressively, equities has dropped sharply, and interest rates have fallen. All the G10 currencies are higher against the greenback. The least is the roughly 0.60% gain by the Australian dollar. The Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the leaders, up around 1.9%-2.2%. Most emerging market currencies are stronger, and the Chinese yuan is a notable exception. The offshore yuan was under pressure even before the PBOC validated the weakness with a sharply high dollar fix. The Thai baht is also weaker. Thailand was hit was a 36% reciprocal tariff, a little more than China and India. Equity markets are a sea of red. In the Asia Pacific region, New Zealand was a rare exception with its market eking out a 0.15% gain. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off around 1.6%, and US index futures are off 2.5% to 3.5%. Japan and Antipodean 10-year yields dropped 10-15 bp, and European benchmark 10-year rates are 5-7 bp lower. The 10-year US 10-year US Treasury yield is off eight basis points to 4.05%. It has not traded below 4% since last October. Gold reached a record near $3168 before profit-taking kicked-in. May WTI gapped lower after reaching almost $72.30 yesterday. It has approached Monday's low near $68.80.

USD:  The Dollar Index has been crushed. It gapped lower and has been sold to nearly 102.10, with the lows set in the European morning. It is off nearly 1.6% today. The 2023 low was near 99.60 and the 2024 low was a little above 100.00. The February goods trade balance was reported last week at almost $149 bln. It was wider than expected even if slightly narrower than the $155.6 bln recorded in January. The overall trade balance will be released today. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a $123.5 bln deficit after $131.4 bln in January. That would put the two-month shortfall at about $255 bln compared with ~$136 bln in the first two months of last year. Some of this reflects the effort by businesses and households to beat the tariffs. Some of the goods will sit in inventories, which later will be drawn down, but probably not before price increases. The distortion will underscore the importance of the final sales to private domestic purchasers as an underlying measure of growth, which excludes government, inventory, and trade when assessing Q1 25 growth. The market may be more sensitive to ISM services (small tick down is expected, while prices paid by increase slightly). Weekly initial jobless claims are also on tap. So far, the government layoffs and reports of private sector layoffs has not yet been picked up by the weekly jobless claims. Confidence is high that they are coming, even if the timing is a bit elusive. We suspect it will be seen later in this quarter....

....MUCH MORE

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

"Wall Street Games Out What Trump Tariffs Mean for World Markets"

World equity markets, cash and futures, are trading down 2% to 4%.

From Bloomberg, April 4 Updated on April 2, 2025 at 4:29 PM PDT:

Wall Street traders were left reeling after Donald Trump made good on his threat to disrupt the modern trading order at the climax of ‘Liberation Day.’

Billed as the biggest shake-up of cross-border commerce in decades, the president unveiled sweeping tariffs Wednesday with a minimum 10% on all exporters to the US. Among the most notable: the European Union faces a 20% levy, Japan a 24% tariff while China will be hit with an even higher

rate.

Stocks plunged in after-hour trading, haven assets rose and oil dropped on demand fears, as fresh volatility hits world markets.

Strategists and money managers are now poring over the fine print of the upcoming import taxes. With still-protracted trade negotiations ahead, amid already deteriorating US economic data, the bearish case remains intact for risk assets in the near-term.

Read more: EU Eyes Emergency Plans to Shield Economy From Trump Tariffs

One bullish view flips that script altogether, on the basis that greater clarity on commerce policy will eventiually spur dip-buyers to rebuild exposure to beaten-up corners of stock and credit markets.

Here’s how strategists and investors are reacting to the convention-defying trade measures:

Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services:

“This looks like it will net out to be worse than the 20% plan. Considering all of the US products manufactured in Asia, these tariff rates of ~20% to ~34% are steep. I see Taiwan is 32%, which will restrain the semiconductor space. That should slow trade and raise prices, squeezing profit margins. This will further slow a decelerating economy as it creates friction and distortion in global trade. I think we need to expect retaliation — which will likely lead to further escalation.”

Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co.:

“There was not the kind of last-minute relief that some investors had been hoping for recently. So, it looks like the Trump Administration is not worried about the near-term impact these tariff policies will have on the markets.

This means the focus on earnings guidance over the coming weeks will be intense. If earnings estimates continue to decline, it will create even stronger headwinds for the stock market.”

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management:

“If there is going to be a silver-lining - and this remains to be seen - then hopefully these tariff rates are only the beginning of a negotiation which will bring rates down across the board.”

Steve Chiavarone, head of multi-asset group at Federated Hermes:

“If today’s announcement marks the most draconian levels of tariffs — and the news flow from here is about how countries are negotiating reductions to these rates — that could be good for markets. This may create enough of a sell-off over the next day or so that it creates a buying opportunity. Worst-case scenario today would’ve been at a low rate with threats of escalation. I’d rather, at this point, have higher rates with the potential to deescalate.”

Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management:

“We have been positioned into ‘Liberation Day’ via owning high-quality credit and have been buying duration in the intermediate sector to hedge if the economic hard data slows. We still like this position heading into payrolls on Friday. There is a stagflationary impulse with tariffs, which will force the Fed to be behind the curve.

The economy and the market is grappling with many different cross currents with downside risks to growth : 1) Tariffs (which are a tax on consumers and/or corporates) 2) Cutting government spending via DOGE 3) Uncertainty. I am most concerned with the uncertainty aspect, which is affecting businesses and consumers. If the next few months or quarters are spent in trade negotiations, that uncertainty remains high. I worry that some of the damage has been done already, so I worry about the growth implications.”

Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle....

....MUCH MORE

"Tesla stock pops after report Musk will step back from government role 'in the coming weeks'" (TSLA)

I think that's enough Tesla for one day.

here's the story at Yahoo Finance.

The stock is up $14.48 at $282.94.

So far today: 

Michael Bloomberg: "America Is Headed for a Grim Fiscal Reckoning"

One of the few 'men of the left' to even broach the subject. 

From Bloomberg, April 2:

Congress should be alarmed by the CBO’s new debt projections. Instead, it’s aiming for bigger budget deficits.

Amid all the blaring headlines coming out of Washington, here’s a piece of news that is getting far too little attention: The US is on course for fiscal breakdown. That’s the unambiguous message from the Congressional Budget Office’s newly updated long-term projections. Unless Congress changes course, there’ll be a reckoning, and it will be grim.

As the CBO details, deficit spending is more out of control than ever. Both parties share the blame, as do both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And all should remember that investors’ appetite for US government debt isn’t limitless.

The federal government is currently spending roughly $7 trillion and collecting only $5 trillion in taxes annually. The resulting deficit is a little over 6% of gross domestic product, a disturbingly high number for an economy around full employment.

The CBO expects public borrowing to remain at this elevated level or higher for decades. Assuming no recessions, public debt will rise to 100% of GDP this year and 118% by 2035 — and it just keeps rising from there.

A responsible Congress would make deficit reduction its overriding priority. Instead, Republicans are discussing ways to borrow more — and not just a little more. New tax cuts are under consideration. And many want to extend provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which would otherwise expire at the end of this year.

Extending the law in full would increase the national debt by roughly $5 trillion over the next decade and $40 trillion over 30 years. The debt ratio in 30 years would soar to more than 200% of GDP.

Higher tariff revenues won’t come close to balancing the books. In fact, the impact on overall revenue is likely to be negative, because tariffs depress commercial activity and job creation....

....MUCH MORE

"Donald Trump tells cabinet Elon Musk will be stepping down from duties 'soon'"

From the Daily Mirror, April 2:

Donald Trump made the comments about Elon Musk's future to his cabinet - we'll be bringing you the very latest updates, pictures and video on this breaking news story....

....MORE

Rabobank: "T-Day"

From Rabobank's Michael Every via ZeroHedge, April 2:

"I have also to announce to Congress that during the night and the early hours of this morning the first of the series of tariffs in force upon the European Continent has taken place. In this case the liberating assault fell upon the coast of France. An immense armada of upwards of 4,000 tariffs, together with several thousand smaller tariffs, crossed the Channel. Massed airborne tariffs have been successfully effected behind the enemy lines, and tariff landings on the beaches are proceeding at various points at the present time... The Americans are sustained by about 11,000 first line tariffs, which can be drawn upon as may be needed for the purposes of the battle. I cannot, of course, commit myself to any particular details. Reports are coming in in rapid succession. So far, the Commanders who are engaged report that everything is proceeding according to plan. And what a plan! This vast operation is undoubtedly the most complicated and difficult that has ever taken place. It involves tides, wind, waves, visibility, both from the air and the sea standpoint, and the combined employment of land, air and sea tariffs in the highest degree of intimacy and in contact with conditions which could not and cannot be fully foreseen.”

Apologies to Winston Churchill for misusing his D-Day speech: “We shall tariff on the beaches, we shall tariff on the landing grounds, we shall tariff in the fields and in the streets, we shall tariff in the hills; we shall never surrender,” would have been snappier, but historically, the above is the correct one for today.

Because it’s T-day, or “Liberation Day”, or Make America Wealthy Again (MAWA) Day. That’s all we know so far. One rumor is we may get a 20% universal tariff, which would say a lot about ‘state’ and not so much about ‘craft’; or a targeted scheme; that may or may not then be negotiated down. We all still have to wait and see. (Of course tomorrow we start 25% US auto tariffs, on which please see our latest report.)

Ahead of that last-second US decision, last-minute countermoves are being made. Israel (where not much work was needed) and Vietnam (where more was) have both cut all their tariffs on US goods in the hope of a better outcome, and India is reportedly considering the same. Europe (and Canada and Mexico) are instead preparing to fight back, the former even floating escalation into new areas like services and tech that will surely guarantee a furious US response.

The Wall Street Journal hopes tariff clarity today will calm markets, and that’s the White House view too. However, then we all have to wait and see what happens re: counter-tariffs, which seem inevitable --Europe is talking in suitably Churchillian terms again-- and then what the US does in the trade space in response, and outside it to those who don’t see trade is now connected to things like US security umbrellas. In short, we need to quote Winnie again: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Yet while D-Day was a very brave and uncertain exercise, the underlying dynamic of US and Soviet military production vs. German and Japanese made the ultimate outcome of WW2 inevitable, just as the ideological split between the US and the Soviets would always then split the world in a different way afterwards. You can’t focus on just one front, no matter how dramatic, but always need to see the entire theatre of operations....

....MUCH MORE

"Stablecoin giant Circle files for IPO"

We don't have much interest in IPO shares, you can't get much of the ones you want, there's usually an opportunity to purchase the stock at a better risk-adjusted valuation somewhere down the road, etc.

We do however treasure the information, corporate, industry, and macro, contained in the offering documents.

From PitchBook, April 1:

Circle, the company behind the popular stablecoin USDC, has filed to go public on the New York Stock Exchange under “CRCL,” according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday.

Circle’s long-rumored IPO will be closely watched by the crypto industry as it hopes for a favorable listing environment.

“For VCs, strong demand for Circle’s listing could serve as a proof point that there is a viable exit path for crypto investments via traditional public markets—a shift that might encourage additional capital inflows into crypto startups,” said Robert Le, senior analyst at PitchBook. The company has raised $1.2 billion in total venture funding, according to PitchBook data.

The company had $155.7 million in net income on $1.7 billion in revenue in 2024. In 2023, Circle had $267.6 million in net income on $1.5 billion in revenue. Nearly all of its revenue (at least for the last three years) has come from its stablecoin-related reserves....

....MUCH MORE

"Nvidia thinks AI can solve electrical grid problems caused by AI"

From TechCrunch, March 20:

Nvidia announced Thursday it’s partnering with EPRI, a power industry R&D organization, to use AI to solve problems facing the electrical grid. Perhaps ironically, the issues are largely caused by rising power demand from AI itself.

The Open Power AI Consortium, which includes a number of electrical utilities and tech companies, says it will use what are known as domain-specific AI models to devise new ways to tackle problems that the power industry is predicted to face in the coming years. The models will be open sourced and available to researchers across academia and industry.

The power industry is facing surging demand from data centers in the United States and elsewhere as AI ramps up the need for computing power. Electricity demand is expected to grow by 4% annually in the coming years, according to the International Energy Agency, nearly double over 2023 figures. 

In addition to Nvidia and EPRI, the consortium includes PG&E, Con Edison, Constellation Energy, Duke Energy, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and ENOWA, NEOM’s energy and water company. On the tech side, Microsoft and Oracle are both members.

In an attempt to stay ahead of the trend, tech companies have been racing to secure generating capacity as power has transformed from a simple line item to a competitive advantage.

Over the last year or so, tech companies have been consistently inking new contracts. They’ve largely been spread across renewable energy projects, spurred mostly by solar’s low cost, modularity, and the speed at which it can be deployed.

Microsoft, for example, recently added 475 megawatts of solar power to its sizable renewable portfolio. Last year, it became an anchor investor in a $9 billion renewable development project run by Acadia, and earlier in the year it said it was working with Brookfield asset management to deploy 10.5 gigawatts of renewable power in the U.S. and Europe, all of which is expected to come online by 2030.

But even though new power sources may be the most obvious answer to losing power shortages, they aren’t the only one. 

One recent study found that by curtailing use when demand on the grid peaks, including shifting tasks that aren’t time sensitive to periods when demand is low, an additional 76 GB of capacity could be unlocked in the U.S. It’s a not insignificant amount, making up approximately 10% of peak demand in the U.S....

....MUCH MORE

"Tesla stock drops as Q1 deliveries miss Wall Street estimates" (TSLA)

From Yahoo Finance, April 2:

Tesla's first quarter delivery total was its lowest tally in nearly three years.

Tesla (TSLA) reported first quarter global deliveries that widely missed estimates, as demand issues clearly hit the EV-maker.

For the quarter, Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries vs. 390,342 estimated per Bloomberg consensus, making it the worst quarter for deliveries since the second quarter of 2022.

"While the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1, the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well," Tesla said in a statement. The refreshed Model Y went on sale globally in March, with some analysts citing the changeover as a reason for depressed demand for its top selling vehicle.

Tesla shares dropped nearly 5% in pre-market trading.

Tesla also said it produced 362,615 units globally for the quarter and deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products.

Tesla sales have been stalling across most of its global territories. Earlier this week, Tesla registration data in key European regions fell in March, another sign that sales are continuing to slide in one of its key markets....

....MUCH MORE

The stock is down $14.10 in early regular trade, $254.36 last.