"Trump to Repeal Landmark Climate Finding in Huge Regulatory Rollback"

From the Wall Street Journal, February 9:

Move would reverse legal determination that greenhouse gases threaten public health 

The Trump administration is planning this week to repeal the Obama-era scientific finding that serves as the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas regulation, according to U.S. officials, in the most far-reaching rollback of U.S. climate policy to date.

The reversal targets the 2009 “endangerment finding,” which concluded that six greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health and welfare. The finding provided the legal underpinning for the Environmental Protection Agency’s climate rules, which limited emissions from power plants and tightened fuel-economy standards for vehicles under the Clean Air Act.

“This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said in an interview. 

The final rule, set to be made public later this week, removes the regulatory requirements to measure, report, certify and comply with federal greenhouse-gas emission standards for motor vehicles, and repeals associated compliance programs, credit provisions and reporting obligations for industries, according to administration officials.

It wouldn’t apply to rules governing emissions from power plants and other stationary sources such as oil-and-gas facilities, the officials said. But repealing the finding could open up the door to rolling back regulations that affect those facilities.

The move is likely to be seen as a victory for the fossil-fuel industry, which for years has pushed back against federal climate regulations. Since taking office, President Trump has sought to repeal rules that his allies in the oil-and-gas industry have cited as overly burdensome. Trump has framed fossil fuels as vital to economic and national security, and he has argued that expanded reliance on them will help lower energy prices.

The decision to repeal the endangerment finding might also create fresh uncertainty for companies with global operations, which could find themselves caught between lower environmental standards at home and a higher baseline for emissions rules abroad. A void at the federal level might prompt states to implement their own regulations, and create new legal exposure for companies.

Environmental groups have said they would challenge a rollback in the courts, and it could be years before litigation is resolved. The administration could decline to enforce rules and fines while a legal process unfolds. Several unsuccessful attempts to revise or repeal the “endangerment finding” have been made in recent years—including in the courts.

The Environmental Defense Fund, a nonprofit advocacy group, has said that rolling back the endangerment finding would “eliminate some of our most vital tools to protect people from the pollution that causes climate change.” The group said the administration was trying to steer Americans toward dirtier, more dangerous and more destructive air.

On Inauguration Day last year, Trump signed an executive order directing the EPA to submit an assessment on whether the endangerment finding—which the Obama and Biden administrations used to set greenhouse gas emission limits on vehicles, power plants and large industrial facilities—should be kept in place. The EPA announced a proposal to rescind the finding last July.

Officials said the rollback would equate to more than $1 trillion in regulation cuts, though they didn’t provide details on how they came up with the number. They said that rescinding the finding would result in an average per-vehicle cost savings of more than $2,400. Public health and environmental groups have said federal climate regulations help prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also:

May 2009 - UPDATE: OMB on the Cost of EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gasses

May 2009 - White House: CO2 rules to seriously impact economy

December 2009 - From the Endangerment Finding to the Tailoring rule.
Monday, December 7, 2009
01:15 P.M. EST "U.S. EPA to make 'significant climate announcement'"

From Reuters:The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Monday it would make a "significant climate announcement" at 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT).

The EPA has been expected to issue a final ruling that greenhouse gases endanger human health. That finding would allow the agency to issue rules to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, even if Congress fails to pass legislation to cut U.S. emissions of the heat-trapping gases that scientists say cause global warming.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson told Reuters last month the endangerment finding was being considered by the Office of Management and Budget and that the agency was hoping for an expedited review....

The EPA's Tailoring Rule which is downstream from the Endangerment Finding affects, one way or another, around 20% of GDP. 

February 2012 - EPA Chief Jackson Signs Tailoring Rule, Probably Illegal. Coincidentally D.C. Court of Appeals Hears Arguments Tomorrow

This is a pretty big deal affecting approximately 20% of GDP.
The question is whether the EPA or any Executive branch agency has the power to ignore the actual wording of the Clean Air Act to "tailor" the rules. Tomorrow and Wednesday a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear two full days of oral arguments on this and three other issues.

But, the Appeals Court didn't listen to moi:

U.S. Court of Appeals Upholds EPA's Tailoring Rule

The court sees no problem granting power to the bureaucrats that was never intended and wasn't in the law.
I can see part of the argument for the auto emissions and the Mass v EPA re-hash but the Tailoring rule is just makin' stuff up.
This is going to the Supremes but for now You just keep me hangin' on.

July 3, 2022 - Background On The Supreme Court's EPA/CO2 Ruling: The Administrative State 

March 2025 -  Carbon Dioxide Regulation: "EPA to Reconsider Legal Basis of US Climate Change Rules" 

July 24, 2025 - "EPA drafts rule to strike down landmark climate finding"

July 29, 2025 - "EPA proposing to repeal climate ‘endangerment finding’ Tuesday" 
If this action survives court challenges it is a very big deal.

And many more, it's a pretty big deal. 

Inflation: Ahead of Tomorrow's CPI Report, The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast

Tomorrow's report is for the month of January. 

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, February 10:

Inflation, month-over-month percent change 

Month                  CPI    Core CPI      PCE    Core PCE    Updated
February 2026     0.20      0.20         0.22       0.23          02/10
January 2026     0.13      0.22         0.18       0.23          02/10
December 2025                               0.27       0.24          02/10 

Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released. 

....MUCH MORE, year-over-year, quarterly, methodology. 

Somalia Rolls Out Voter Registration/Voter I.D.

First up, Radio Dalsan (FM 91.5 - Mogadishu), November 15, 2025:

Somalia Takes Crucial Step Toward One-Person-One-Vote Elections Amid Political Tensions

MOGADISHU – In a move laden with both symbolic and practical significance, Somali electoral authorities commenced the distribution of biometric voter cards in the capital on Saturday, initiating a delicate pilot project for a one-person-one-vote electoral system not fully realized in over half a century.

The launch by the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) represents the most tangible step to date in the Federal Government's protracted campaign to replace Somalia's clan-based indirect voting model with a system of direct universal suffrage. The initial phase targets seven districts in the Banaadir region, the administrative zone encompassing the nation's capital, Mogadishu.

The technical rollout saw officials begin distributing encoded voter ID cards from 42 designated centers across the city. In statements to the press, NIEC Chairman Abdikarim Ahmed Hassan outlined a streamlined process, noting that pre-registered individuals—numbering over 900,000 in Banaadir alone—are receiving SMS directives to specific collection points.

"This is a procedural cornerstone," stated a senior NIEC official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The integrity of the voter register and the secure distribution of credentials are foundational to any credible electoral event."

This meticulous logistical exercise is designed to build confidence in a process that has repeatedly faltered in the past. The districts of Shibis, Bondhere, Hamar-Jajab, Shangaani, Waaberi, Hamar-Weyne, and Abdiasis are serving as the first test cases for a system the federal government hopes to eventually deploy nationwide.

The ambition to hold a direct vote represents a pivotal shift for Somalia. The country has not conducted a full one-person-one-vote national election since 1969. The subsequent collapse of the state in 1991 gave way to a complex power-sharing model where members of parliament were selected by clan elders, a system intended to ensure equitable representation but often criticized for fostering corruption and disenfranchising the general populace.

"For the Federal Government, this is about legacy and legitimacy," explains Dr. Safia Abdi, a political analyst specializing in Horn of Africa governance. "Transitioning to a direct vote is framed as the ultimate exit from decades of transitional politics and a testament to restored state functionality. It is a powerful narrative, both domestically and for international partners funding this peacebuilding process."

Despite the visible progress in Mogadishu, the initiative faces formidable political headwinds that threaten its national viability. The federal member states of Jubbaland and Puntland, along with the opposition National Consultative Council (NCC), have mounted sustained criticism against the process.

Their grievances are multifaceted. They allege a lack of genuine consultation, question the neutrality of the NIEC, and raise concerns over the feasibility of securing elections in regions still contested by Al-Shabaab militants. This opposition is not merely rhetorical; without the buy-in of these powerful sub-national actors, organizing elections in their territories would be practically and legally fraught.

"The Mogadishu pilot is proceeding, but it exists in a political vacuum," cautions a Western diplomat based in the capital. "The real test is not logistical; it is political. Can Mogadishu negotiate a pre-election deal that brings the powerful regional states and the opposition back into the fold? Without that, this risks being a successful election in the capital that deepens the country's political fractures."

The distribution of voter cards in Mogadishu is a definitive milestone, demonstrating a level of administrative capacity once thought impossible for the Somali state. It is a testament to the determination of certain institutions and the profound public desire for a direct democratic voice....

....MORE 

From Hiiraan Online, April 15, 2025:

Somalia launches voter registration ahead of 2026 one-person, one-vote elections

Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia’s National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC) launched voter registration on Tuesday in Mogadishu, marking a historic step toward the country’s first one-person, one-vote elections since 1967, scheduled for 2026.

The registration began in Shangani district, where hundreds of residents lined up to receive voter ID cards. Senior government officials, including the mayor of Mogadishu, were among the first to register.... 

From Dawan Africa, December 13:

Somalia to Use New Voter Card in Future Elections says  President 

Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, announced today that all upcoming national elections will be conducted using the new voter identification card currently being issued to citizens.

The President made the remarks in Warta Nabadda District in the Banaadir region, where he received his own voter card as part of the ongoing registration process. The cards will be used in the Banaadir local council elections scheduled for 25 December.

“Future elections will be conducted using the same voter card that is being issued now,” the  President said, noting that the government and the electoral commission are working to build an integrated electoral framework that can be implemented nationwide.

He emphasized the importance of establishing a unified, transparent, and modern electoral system across the country as Somalia stabilizes....

....MORE 

It's not just cards. 

From the World Bank blog, September 17, 2025:

Federal Republic of Somalia launches mass registration drive for its Digital ID  

This year’s International Identification Day on September 16 was particularly memorable for some of us. I, Daniel, had spent it in Mogadishu seeing the outstanding work of Somalia's National Identification and Registration Authority (NIRA) in the Federal Republic of Somalia. NIRA was celebrating its own milestone of launching the mass registration campaign for the long anticipated foundational digital ID. I heard firsthand stories of how obtaining an ID is changing people’s lives in Somalia, reinforcing the importance of the World Bank’s support to this initiative.

Take the case of Miss Jijo, a domestic worker in her early twenties. She has been working in Mogadishu to support her family back in Bakool since she was a teenager. She had never possessed any form of personal identification, until now. When asked why she registered for the foundational ID, she said:

I had never owned any kind of identification. For a long time, I didn’t really need it, and most documents like passports or birth certificates cost money I couldn’t afford. I used to send all my earnings back to my family, but recently I received a raise and decided to start saving a little for myself. To open a bank account, I needed an ID. The Somali ID was the first one accessible to me—it’s free, and it gives me a way to build some security for my future.

The launch of Somalia’s mass registration 
On August 18, 2025, NIRA launched the pilot of its foundational ID mass registration campaign in the two districts of Shangani and Boondheer. This campaign is preparing to scale up with a bold objective: to register all 3.5 million residents of Mogadishu, extend coverage across the entirety of Banadir region, and ultimately reach 15 million nationwide by the end of 2029....

....MUCH MORE 

Finally, from the Kulan Post, September 19:

Somalia to Enforce National ID Requirement for Citizenship Recognition 

Futurecasting: "Goldman Sachs revamps Nvidia stock forecast ahead of earnings" (NVDA)

note: image is Paulette Goddard, not GS analyst.

From TheStreet, February 8:

The investment banks updated its projections for earnings on Feb. 25. 

Nvidia shareholders are eagerly anticipating the AI-chip giant’s quarterly earnings results on February 25. The stakes are particularly high, given mounting competition from AMD and Broadcom, yet Goldman Sachs thinks Nvidia will deliver a $2 billion revenue surprise.

Analysts at the 157-year-old investment bank, regarded as one of the best on Wall Street, believe the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue will come in at $67.3 billion. It also expects Nvidia to outpace estimates on the bottom line.

“We expect Nvidia to deliver a ~$2bn revenue beat in 4Q, and we stand 8% above the Street for 1Q revenue,” wrote the analysts in a research note shared with TheStreet. “Our 4Q and 1Q EPS estimates are 5% and 9% above the Street.”

The forecast is encouraging for investors, including me (I’ve owned Nvidia since 2017, when chip demand surged on cryptocurrency mining). Nvidia’s share price has fallen 13% from its peak last fall.

Still, Goldman Sachs raised concerns that investors may already have priced in a strong quarterly result, shifting the focus from recent performance to Nvidia’s guidance for 2026 and 2027.

Nvidia’s bar has been set high 
In 2022, the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT uncorked a flurry of AI chatbot development, kick-starting a massive surge in demand for Nvidia’s high-powered, next-gen graphics processing units, or GPUs. It was a move few saw coming, and many investors chased the stock higher as the company delivered earnings beats and higher guidance quarter after quarter.

Now, most portfolios boast Nvidia, leaving far less money on the sidelines to drive prices higher.

“We believe upside to Nvidia’s CY26 estimates is largely priced into the stock at current levels, and stock price outperformance will hinge on revenue visibility into CY27,” wrote Goldman Sachs.

It may take more than just higher revenue and earnings last quarter to convince investors to buy more. They’ll need to see real conviction that demand is locked in for this year, and that the launch of its latest chip, Vera Rubin, goes off without a hitch.

Goldman Sachs’ Nvidia stock price target models 35% upside 
Several catalysts could drive Nvidia shares higher, and Goldman Sachs thinks they justify a $250 stock price target, which is 35% above the Feb. 6 closing price. 

Nvidia catalysts for 2026....

....MUCH MORE 

The stock is changing hands at $189.40  down $0.63 (-0.33%)

"Zuckerberg Set to Join California Billionaires With Miami Home"

From Bloomberg, February 9:

Billionaire Meta Platforms Inc. founder Mark Zuckerberg is planning to buy a property in the Miami area, according to a person familiar with the matter, joining a roster of ultra-wealthy individuals expanding their footprints in South Florida.

Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are looking at purchasing a property on Indian Creek, a man-made island in Biscayne Bay known as Billionaires Bunker, the person said. Residents of the ultra-secure enclave include Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, Jeff Bezos, Carl Icahn and Tom Brady.

With a net worth of about $240 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Zuckerberg owns two homes in California — in Palo Alto and near Lake Tahoe — and others in Hawaii and Washington, DC. It was unclear whether Zuckerberg’s plans to purchase in Florida would represent a change in residence or an addition to his real estate portfolio.

The potential purchase comes as California debates a proposed one-time wealth tax on billionaires that would apply to unrealized gains, a measure that has stirred concern among investors and business leaders across the state. Several billionaires, including Peter Thiel and David Sacks, have left California in the face of the proposal.

A Meta spokesperson declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported on Zuckerberg’s purchase of a Florida home.

South Florida has continued to attract wealthy technology executives from California. In recent weeks, Google’s co-founders have both made purchases in the area. Larry Page bought three homes in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood for a combined total of nearly $190 million, while Sergey Brin reportedly is purchasing a roughly $50 million home on Biscayne Bay.

Indian Creek, which has a large golf course in the middle of the island, has become one of the most exclusive enclaves in South Florida with tight security limiting access to residents and invited guests.

Zuckerberg has grown closer to President Donald Trump in his second term, and has visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach — about 70 miles north of Miami — on multiple occasions.

The union-backed ballot measure in California, which still has to gather enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot, calls for a one-time 5% tax on those with more than $1 billion in net worth to cover funding shortfalls for health care, education and food assistance....

....MORE 

Previously:

November 17, 2025 - "Norway's Wealth Tax Unchains a Capital Exodus  

December 28, 2025 - "A Wealth Tax Floated in California Has Billionaires Thinking of Leaving"

January 9, 2026 -  "Google Guys Say Bye to California"

January 13 - Half The Wealth California Was Going To Tax Has Already Left The State

February 9 - "Dozens Rally in SF for Billionaire Rights March"

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate For Q4 GDP Growth Now Down To 3.7%

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, February 10:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 3.7 percent on February 10, down from 4.2 percent on February 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.1 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.4 percent and 6.7 percent.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2025: Q4
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)

Construction: Dodge Momentum Index Falls In January, Data Centers Remain Strong

First up, from SteelMarketUpdate, February 6:

Dodge: Nonres slips in January, data centers remain a bright spot 

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) fell 6.2% in January to 272.7, retreating from December’s downwardly revised reading of 291.0, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.

The decline signaled a moderation in nonresidential planning activity after a strong finish in 2025. Commercial planning also declined, down 7.2% to a reading of 358.2 for the month, while institutional planning eased 4.4% to 198.6 vs. December.

“Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network.

And while data center projects remain a driver, Martin added that “after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern.”....

....MUCH MORE 

And at Dodge Construction Network, February 6:

Dodge Momentum Index Declines 6% in January 

Nonresidential Planning Levels Off; Data Centers Continue to Support Strong Levels

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.3% in January to 272.7 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised December reading of 291.0. Over the month, commercial planning fell 7.2% and institutional planning momentum slowed by 4.4%.  

“Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors,” said Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Data center projects continue to lead the way, but after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern.” 

On the commercial side, planning momentum slowed across all commercial sectors apart from retail stores. Within institutional planning, education, healthcare and public building planning slowed in January – while recreational and religious building projects continued to expand.  

Year-over-year, the DMI was up 29% when compared to January 2025. The commercial segment was up 26% (+17% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 34% over the same period.  

A total of 35 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout January. The largest commercial projects included the $500 million IEP Data Center (Project Hummingbird) in Monongahela Township, Pennsylvania, the $400 million Mountain Road Technology Park Data Center in Glen Allen, Virginia, and the $350 million Bitfarm Data Center in Nesquehoning, Pennsylvania. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $250 million USACE Barracks in Fort Hood, Texas, the $175 million UEPH Barracks at Joint Base Myer-Henderson in Arlington, Virginia, and the $148 million Eurofins Lancaster Biopharmaceutical Laboratory and Office Building in Lancaster, Pennsylvania....

....MUCH MORE 

"The challenge for the liberal establishment in the social media era is simple: persuade or perish. If you can’t control the public conversation, you must participate in it."

From Conspicuous Cognition, November 30, 2025:

Let's Not Bring Back The Gatekeepers 

A consensus view holds that social media benefits something called “populism”, an amorphous political force involving anger towards “elites” and “the establishment” on behalf of the more virtuous masses. The evidence for this view consists mainly of the suspicious correlation between social media’s emergence and the worldwide rise of populism, and the undeniable fact that populists seem to perform uniquely well on social media platforms.

Because the establishment in modern liberal democracies is overwhelmingly small-l liberal (universalist, pluralist, procedural), such populist movements are typically illiberal, especially on the populist right (MAGA, Reform UK, Rassemblement National, Alternative für Deutschland, etc). So, social media’s support for populism goes hand in hand with its threat to a reigning liberal order in the West that many thought or at least hoped marked the end of history.

Why does social media have these consequences? And if, like me, you are a liberal who opposes populism, what can be done about it?

This essay has three parts.

Part 1 argues that the main reason social media benefits populism is that it destroys elite gatekeeping, providing a mass media platform for popular ideas historically stigmatised and marginalised by establishment elites.

Part 2 then outlines several reasons why we should nevertheless resist moves for more elite gatekeeping on social media. Not only are such efforts likely to make things worse, but the decline of elite gatekeeping has had many beneficial consequences, and the negative consequences, although real, are often overstated.

Finally, Part 3 argues that many of these negative consequences are not inevitable either. A large part of the blame for them lies in the fact that establishment institutions have failed to adapt to the new pressures and responsibilities of the social media age. Instead, they have clung to a set of habits and norms—most fundamentally, an aversion to engaging with illiberal ideas to avoid “platforming” and “normalising” them—adapted to a world that no longer exists.

Put simply: Once established institutions lost the privilege to control the public conversation, they acquired an obligation to participate within it, which, so far, they have mostly failed to do....

....MUCH MORE, he's just clearing his throat. 

If interested see also Luttwak's 2016 update to 1968's "Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook"

....Other additions bringing this work into the twenty-first century include Luttwak’s observations about how coup plotters in the age of the internet must now take control of more than the central television station to control public propaganda.... 

—Times Literary Supplement, review 

Capital Markets: "Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking"

From Marc to Market:

After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended through the local session and the European morning. The very long-end of the Japanese yield curve also extended its counter-intuitive rally, with the 30- and 40-year yields lower for the 5-6th consecutive session. While the dollar appeared to react strongly to China’s warnings about US Treasury exposure, the bond market appears to have largely ignored it. The US 10-year yield has eased below 4.20%, the previous cap, which has closed below only once since mid-January. 

The busy week for US data begins today with the import/export prices, the Q4 Employment Cost Index, and December retail sales. Strong auto sales and heavy holiday-discounting likely underpinned consumption. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker estimates that the US economy grew by more than 4% in Q4, for the second consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures have a cut fully discounted at the first meeting Warsh will chair if the confirmation hearings are timely and not disrupted by the ongoing investigation of the Powell for misleading Congress over cost overruns of the HQ renovations....

....MUCH MORE 

"Alphabet plans tech’s first 100-year bond since dot-com era" (GOOG)

Ah, the Lindy Effect raises its elderly head.*

From Bloomberg via The Mercury-News, February 9:

Alphabet Inc. plans to sell a very rare 100-year bond as part of its mega debt issue, in the first sale of such long-dated debt by a technology firm since the late 1990s 

Alphabet Inc. plans to sell a very rare 100-year bond as part of its mega debt issue, in the first sale of such long-dated debt by a technology firm since the late 1990s.

The 100-year bond will be denominated in sterling, along with four other tranches in the currency, according to a person familiar with the matter. The deal, which is Alphabet’s debut sterling sale, could be priced as early as tomorrow, the person added, asking not to be identified.

It marks the first sale with such an extreme maturity by a technology firm since Motorola sold this type of debt in 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The market for 100-year bonds is dominated by governments and institutions like universities. For corporates, potential acquisitions, outdated business models and technological obsolescence make such deals a rarity.

Still, given the sheer volume of debt that tech firms need to raise to stay ahead in the race to build artificial intelligence capabilities, even ultra-rare deals are making a comeback.

“They want to tap every kind of investor possible from the structured finance investor to the super long-dated investor,” said Gordon Kerr, European macro strategist at KBRA. The main buyer of the 100-year bond would be insurance companies and pension funds, and “the guy who underwrites it is probably not going to be the guy who’s there when it gets repaid,” he said.

Strong demand from UK pension funds and insurers has made the sterling market a go-to venue for issuers seeking longer-dated funding.

Still, excluding government issuers, only Electricite de France SA, the University of Oxford and the charitable foundation Wellcome Trust Ltd have issued 100-year bonds in the currency before, based on data compiled by Bloomberg....

....MUCH MORE 

*Via arXiv.org:

 

The Lindy Effect
Toby Ord (University of Oxford)

The Lindy effect is a statistical tendency for things with longer pasts behind them to have longer futures ahead. It has been experimentally confirmed to apply to some categories, but not others, raising questions about when it is applicable and why. I shed some light on these questions by examining the mathematical properties required for the effect and generating mechanisms that can produce them. While the Lindy effect is often thought to require a declining hazard rate, I show that it arises very naturally even in cases with constant (or increasing) hazard rates — so long as there is a probability distribution over the size of that rate. One implication is that even things which are becoming less robust over time can display the Lindy effect. 

One book has been in print for three years; another for three hundred. Which should we expect to go out of print first?

The Lindy effect is a statistical regularity where for many kinds of entity: the longer they have been around so far, the longer they are likely to last. This was first clearly posed by Benoît Mandelbrot (1982, p. 342) in his book, The Fractal Geometry of Nature: ‘However long a person’s past collected works, it will on the average continue for an equal additional amount. When it eventually stops, it breaks off at precisely half of its promise.’

Mandelbrot called this effect ‘Lindy’s Law’ in honour of an anecdote by Albert Goldman (1964) about how the future career length of a comedian might be predicted from their past exposure....

....MUCH MORE (20 page PDF) 

And at The New Republic, June 13, 1964:

According to a law established and
promulgated by bald-headed, cigar-
chomping know-it-alls who foregather
every night at Lindy's, where always
punctuating their talk with the same
expression - a long, quizzically inflected
"Fun-ny?" - they conduct post-mor-
tems on recent show biz "action," the
life expectancy of a television come-
dian is proportional to the total amount
of his exposure on the medium.
If, pathetically deluded by hubris, he
undertakes a regular weekly or even
monthly program, his chances of sur-
vival beyond the first season are slight;
but if he adopts the conservation of
resources policy favored by these sen-
escent philosophers of "the Business,"
and confines himself to "specials" and
"guest shots," he may last to the age
of Ed Wynn....

"Goldman Sachs taps Anthropic’s Claude to automate accounting, compliance roles" (GS)

The junior bankers will be up next. Just as with attorneys, there is a lot of boilerplate stuff done by young'uns that really doesn't need to be touched by human hands.

From CNBC, February 6:

• Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive, high-volume back-office work.
• The bank expects efficiency gains rather than near-term job cuts, using AI to speed processes and limit future head count growth.
• Success beyond coding surprised executives, reinforcing that AI can handle complex, rules-based work like accounting and compliance.

Goldman Sachs has been working with the artificial intelligence startup Anthropic to create AI agents to automate a growing number of roles within the bank, the firm’s tech chief told CNBC exclusively.

The bank has, for the past six months, been working with embedded Anthropic engineers to co-develop autonomous agents in at least two specific areas: accounting for trades and transactions, and client vetting and onboarding, according to Marco Argenti, Goldman’s chief information officer.

The firm is “in the early stages” of developing agents based on Anthropic’s Claude model that will collapse the amount of time these essential functions take, Argenti said. He expects to launch the agents “soon,” though he declined to provide a specific date.

“Think of it as a digital co-worker for many of the professions within the firm that are scaled, are complex and very process intensive,” he said.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said in October that his bank was embarking on a multiyear plan to reorganize itself around generative AI, the technology that has made waves since the arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022. Even as investment banks like Goldman are experiencing surging revenue from trading and advisory activities, it will seek to “constrain headcount growth” amid the overhaul, Solomon said....

....MUCH MORE

Can the dream of turning compliance into a profit center be far behind? 

Related, July 2025:

"Goldman Sachs launches AI tool — fueling fears that ‘rise of the machines’ could hit jobs"

As noted some years ago:

"Commerzbank Replacing Human Research Analysts With Artificial Intelligence"

Sorry, that's a bridge too far, it's time to smash the looms 'puters.
(metaphor party mix)

Chips: "Cerebras Raises $1 Billion in Funding at $23 Billion Value"

Big money, big chips.

From Bloomberg, February 4:

AI chip provider Cerebras Systems Inc. has raised about $1 billion in a new funding round, bolstering the company’s efforts to compete with Nvidia Corp.

The financing values the firm at $23 billion, including the money raised, cementing it as one of the most valuable closely held firms ahead of an expected IPO. The funding was led by Tiger Global Management, with participation from other investors, including Benchmark, Fidelity Management & Research Co., and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Cerebras is part of a growing crop of companies vying to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the market for AI chips. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Feldman claims his hardware runs AI models multiple times faster than Nvidia systems. He also offers remote computing services to customers such as Meta Platforms Inc., International Business Machines Corp. and Mistral AI.

Last month, OpenAI reached a multiyear deal to use hardware from Cerebras for 750 megawatts’ worth of computing power, in order to get quicker response times when running AI models. The infrastructure will be built in multiple stages “through 2028” and hosted by Cerebras. The deal is worth more than $10 billion, people familiar with the matter said at the time....

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Most recently, January 15:

Chips As Big As Your Head: Cerebras Does Deal With OpenAI For $10 Billion+ In Computing Power

That's our usual description of Cerebras. Where Nvidia uses smaller chips with ultrafast connections, Cerebras users the whole silicon wafer and eliminates the need for many of the connections completely.

Here's an August 2019 post: Artificial Intelligence: The World's Largest Chip Is As Big As Your Head and Contains 1.2 Trillion Transistors 

And a picture from 2020's "Cerebras’ Giant Chip Will Smash Deep Learning’s Speed Barrier"
Computers using Cerebras’s chip will train these AI systems in hours instead of weeks

The world’s largest chip, the Wafer Scale Engine, is more than 50 times the size of the largest GPU. 

 

U.N. "FAO Food Price Index falls for fifth consecutive month in January 2026, driven by lower dairy, meat and sugar prices"

From the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, February 6:

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 123.9 points in January 2026, down 0.5 points (0.4 percent) from December. Declines in the price indices for dairy products, meat and sugar more than offset increases in cereals and vegetable oil, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline of the index. The FFPI stood 0.8 points (0.6 percent) below its level one year ago and as much as 36.4 points (22.7 percent) down from the peak reached in March 2022.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 107.5 points in January, up marginally by 0.2 points (0.2 percent) from December but remaining 4.4 points (3.9 percent) below its level a year earlier. World wheat prices were broadly stable in January, declining by just 0.4 percent from December. Upward pressure stemming from strong export sales by Australia and Canada, along with weather concerns affecting dormant crops in the Russian Federation and the United States of America, was offset by an overall comfortable global supply situation. Expectations of good harvests in Argentina and Australia, together with high global stock levels, continued to exert downward pressure on prices. International maize prices also continued their downward trend, easing by 0.2 percent from December. Although weather-related concerns over planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil, combined with strong ethanol demand in the United States of America, provided some price support, they did not offset the generally bearish market sentiment driven by ample global supplies. Among other coarse grains, world barley prices recorded a modest increase, supported by robust demand for Argentinian supplies, while sorghum prices mirrored movements in the wheat market, easing slightly. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.8 percent in January 2026, reflecting firmer demand, especially for fragrant varieties.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 168.6 points in January, up 3.4 points (2.1 percent) from December and standing 10.2 percent above its level a year earlier. The increase reflected higher world prices of palm, soy and sunflower oils, which more than offset lower rapeseed oil quotations. International palm oil prices rose for the second consecutive month, underpinned by seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia and firm global import demand driven by improved price competitiveness. Meanwhile, world soyoil prices rebounded on tightening export availabilities in South America and expectations of robust demand from the biofuel sector in the United States of America. Regarding global sunflower oil prices, after declining for two successive months in late 2025, they also recovered, driven by continued supply tightness in the Black Sea region, where farmer selling remained limited. By contrast, rapeseed oil prices edged lower, reflecting ample availability in the European Union following large recent import arrivals.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.8 points in January, down 0.5 points (0.4 percent) from December, but still 7.1 points (6.1 percent) above its level a year earlier. The decline mainly reflected lower international pig meat prices, while quotations for bovine and ovine meats remained broadly stable. By contrast, world poultry meat prices increased. Pig meat prices dropped largely due to softer quotations in the European Union amid subdued international demand and ample supplies, including the clearance of backlogs associated with temporary abattoir closures during the end-of-year holidays. Despite relatively tight supply conditions, world ovine meat prices remained largely stable, as seasonal demand softened following high end-year purchases. Bovine meat prices were also broadly stable, amid shifts in Brazilian exports to other destinations following the rapid exhaustion of the United States of America tariff-free quota and the subsequent application of the 26.4 percent out-of-quota tariff. Shipments were increasingly redirected toward China, where importers accelerated purchases to secure volumes ahead of the announced beef safeguard quota, offsetting potential downward pressure on Brazilian prices. Meanwhile, poultry meat quotations rose, mainly reflecting higher prices in Brazil underpinned by strong international demand.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 121.8 points in January, falling by 6.4 points (5.0 percent) from December and standing 21.3 points (14.9 percent) below its level a year ago. This marked the seventh consecutive monthly decline of the index, driven largely by lower world cheese and butter prices, which more than offset modest increases in the quotations of milk powders. International cheese prices registered the sharpest drop in January, reflecting heightened global competition. Ample supplies in Europe and the United States of America exerted downward pressure on quotations, outweighing firmer prices in New Zealand. World butter prices also continued to fall, reflecting seasonally higher milkfat availability, accumulated inventories in Europe, and ample exportable supplies from other major producing regions. By contrast, world prices of milk powders firmed, with skim milk powder recording a more pronounced increase, supported by renewed, price-sensitive import demand following several months of declines, particularly from the Near East, North Africa and parts of Asia. Whole milk powder prices rose only modestly, as demand remained below historical levels, limiting the extent of the increase.... 

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"Interlune digs into the development of an excavator for helium-3 and construction projects on the moon"

Helum-3, it's where the action is will be.*

From GeekWire, February 4:

Interlune is leveraging a $150,000 NASA contract to develop develop lunar trenching and excavation technology — and although the primary goal is to extract valuable helium-3 from moon dirt, the project also signals the company’s broader play for lunar infrastructure.

Interlune’s work on the Small Business Technology Transfer Phase 1 contract, done in partnership with the Colorado School of Mines, demonstrates that the Seattle-based startup’s business model isn’t limited to helium-3. In the years ahead, the technologies pioneered by Interlune for resource extraction can also be used for building roads, base camps and other construction projects on the moon.

For example, the excavator that’s the focus of the NASA funding — known as the Scalable Implement for Lunar Trenching, or SILT — will support Interlune’ plan to sift through tons of lunar soil. But it will also support NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to establish a sustainable lunar presence in the 2030s....

....MUCH MORE
*Previously:

March 2018 - News You Can Use: "Learn How to Build a Nuclear Fusor"

November 2019 -  "The race to mine the moon is taking off — even though no one’s sure if it’s possible"

March 2024 - "This company intends to be the first to mine the moon" 

May 2024 - "Mining helium-3 on the Moon has been talked about forever—now a company will try"

July 2024 -  As L'Institut Polytechnique de Paris points out in their Challenges of Extraterrestrial Mining series  regarding another element (May 2022): 

Helium‑3 from the lunar surface for nuclear fusion?

"GE Vernova Is Getting Cash Today for Deliveries in 2030" (GEV)

Sounds like a business to be in.

From Al Root at Barron's, February 9:

GE Vernova is enjoying the fruits of an energy supercycle.

On Monday, Canadian electricity producer Maxim Power announced a sales reservation agreement with GE Vernova “to hold a manufacturing slot for a 7HA.02 gas turbine and generator package.” That requires Maxim to provide a nonrefundable deposit payable in 2026. Pricing for the turbine will be negotiated later.

Reservations and deposits are the normal course of business for GE Vernova. Still, the company is rapidly selling out its capacity through the end of the decade.

“By the time we get to 100 gigawatts [in backlog], which we’re now projecting by the end of the year, that 100 gigawatts directionally will have both 2029 and 2030 largely sold out based on where we see it today,” said CEO Scott Strazik on Jan. 28. “But sitting here today on January 28, there are still slots available for 2029.”

They may not be available for long. GE Vernova ended 2025 with 83 gigawatts of gas power generation in its backlog. GE Vernova is raising its annual production capacity to 20 gigawatts this year.

Accelerating demand growth for electricity, driven by power-hungry AI data centers, has led to the boom. The impact of a tightening market is evident everywhere. Earlier this month, Xcel and GE Vernova signed a “landmark Strategic Alliance Agreement,” which included the purchase of five F-class power generation turbines....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Barron's, February 8, an interview with the CEO:

Scott Strazik on How GE Vernova Is Riding the AI Power Surge 

The stock traded to a new all-time-high this morning, $806.11, $805.66 last, up $26.31 (3.38%), up 23% year-to-date and 109% over the last twelve months.

Here's the action since GEV was spun out of the old GE via TradingView:

 

"Dozens Rally in SF for Billionaire Rights March"

AI-generated (scraped) news from Arabateknik, February 8: 

# Dozens Rally in SF for Billionaire Rights March

In a bold and controversial display amid California's escalating budget woes, a small but vocal group rallied in San Francisco's upscale Pacific Heights neighborhood on February 7, 2026, for the "March for Billionaires." Organized by Derik Kauffman, the event protested a proposed Billionaire Tax Act targeting the state's ultrarich, drawing about a dozen sincere participants and dozens of satirical counterprotesters waving puppets and mocking signs.[1][2]

March for Billionaires: A Protest Against the Proposed Tax

The March for Billionaires kicked off at Jackson Street and Scott Street, proceeding down Fillmore Street with speeches celebrating entrepreneurs and innovators. Organizer Derik Kauffman emphasized the rally's sincerity, framing it as a stand against a potential 5% one-time tax on billionaires' net worth—excluding pensions, real estate, and retirement accounts—to fund healthcare and food-assistance programs hit by federal cuts.[1][2] Kauffman highlighted contributions from figures like those behind Amazon deliveries, Airbnb, Google Search, Dyson vacuums, biotech firms like Moderna, Chobani yogurt, tennis star Serena Williams, and broadband chip designers, arguing these "risk-takers build our economy."[2]

Supporters of the march warned that the tax could drive billionaires and their businesses out of California, costing jobs and revenue. Governor Gavin Newsom has echoed these concerns, opposing the measure backed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, which needs 875,000 signatures by June 24 for the November ballot.[1]

Counterprotesters Turn Out in Force with Satirical Flair

While the pro-billionaire crowd numbered around a dozen, the event magnetized dozens of humorous counterprotesters who mocked the proceedings. Razelle Swimmer brandished a puppet of the Muppets' Swedish Chef adorned with "Eat the Rich" and knives, declaring billionaires don't deserve extra protections and that their potential exodus wouldn't matter if they refuse higher taxes.[1] Another participant donned a gold crown, waved a "Let them eat cake" sign, and shouted "Keep the poors away from me," amplifying the satirical tone amid California's homelessness and healthcare crises.[1]

The stark contrast underscored deep divisions over wealth inequality in the Golden State, where proponents of the Billionaire Tax Act argue it ensures the ultrarich pay their fair share to aid the majority.[1]

California's Billionaire Tax Debate Heats Up...

....MUCH MORE 

France's Prime Minister Lecornu sets out agenda after budget battle, Focuses on Energy and Defence

From Reuters, February 8:

Less than a week after surviving a five-month-long battle over France's 2026 budget, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu set out his agenda over the weekend, prioritising energy and defence. 

Budget wrangling consumed French politics for nearly two years and cost two prime ministers before Lecornu was appointed in September.

"France has a budget that aims to reduce the deficit to 5% without raising taxes. Few believed it would happen in the autumn," Lecornu said. 

Despite rising popularity and polls showing neither President Emmanuel Macron's centrists nor conservatives could defeat the far-right National Rally in the 2027 presidential election, Lecornu repeated he had no interest in running.

He added that a minor cabinet reshuffle would take place ahead of March local elections. 

Here are Lecornu's priorities for the coming months. 

ENERGY

The prime minister said the government's next "multi‑year energy programme" would be signed by decree by the end of next week, after more than two years of delays. 

He confirmed that state-owned EDF will build six new nuclear reactors, with an option for eight others, while investment in renewable energy - including offshore wind, solar and geothermal power — would remain "ambitious".

 

"Next, we will need to consider incentives to speed up electrification. The goal is to ensure that 60% of our consumption in 2030 is electric." 

DEFENCE

"Increasing the defence budget (57 billion euros or $67.35 billion), which will double between 2017 and 2027, is essential ... we must continue," Lecornu said....

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "Dramatic Victory for Takaichi, Beijing Cautions on US Treasuries, and Starmer's Woes Persist"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

There are three important developments. First, Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide victory that secured a 2/3 “super majority” that is understood as a powerful mandate and provides an opportunity to change the constitution.  While JGBs were sold and Japanese equities bought, after some initial volatility, as many anticipated, the yen has defied expectations and strengthened. Second, Chinese officials have recently moved to discourage financial institutions from buying more Treasuries. Apparently, it was justified on risk-management grounds rather than geopolitics. And it may be begun in recent weeks rather than the past couple of days. Third, UK Prime Minister Starmer’s chief of staff resigned over the Mandelson appointment, but it is not clear that it has taken off the pressure from Starmer. 

The US dollar is lower against all the G10 currencies, led by the Australian and New Zealand dollars, though the Australia reported disappointing household spending figures. While the daily momentum indicators seem to have favored the greenback, the price action before the weekend called it into question. The reaction of American investors to the move by Beijing may set the tone ahead of the heavy schedule of economic reports due in the coming days....

....MUCH MORE    

"China is pumping cash to fill a US$456 billion liquidity shortfall"

It's repo, not stimulus but so far the Chinese equity markets seem to be in party mode. 

The CSI 300 is up 60.49 (+1.30%) at 4,704.09 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1.85%.

From Bloomberg via Singapore's Business Times, February 9:

Some of the liquidity pressure the PBOC must offset stems from household behaviour 

THE People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is boosting the supply of money available to banks to ensure they can meet the surge in demand for cash during the Chinese New Year holidays.

The central bank injected a total of 600 billion yuan (S$110 billion) via a 14-day repurchase agreements late last week, ending a two-month hiatus for such operations. Industrial Securities forecasts the PBOC to add as much as 3.5 trillion yuan of funds via similar tools before the holidays kick off on Sunday (Feb 8).

The injections would address a roughly 3.2 trillion yuan liquidity gap identified by Bloomberg calculations. Withdrawals related to holiday spending, heavy government bond issuance and surging corporate demand for the yuan are all expected to drain funds from the banking system.

For the PBOC, keeping the financial plumbing well-greased is essential to ward off a seasonal cash crunch and maintain economic momentum against mounting headwinds. Before the latest move, the PBOC doubled its bond purchases in January and added a record one trillion yuan of medium to long-term funds into the banking system.

“The central bank has ample room to roll over liquidity,” said Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities....

....MUCH MORE 

"Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 jumps after PM Takaichi’s ruling party wins a super majority in election"

Lifted in toto from the Associated Press, February 8/9: 

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 share index jumped 4.5% on Monday after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s governing party secured a two-thirds supermajority in a parliamentary election.

Takaichi is expected to pursue market-friendly policies. She told public broadcaster NHK later that she is ready to pursue policies to make Japan strong and prosperous.

Markets across Asia also advanced, with South Korea’s Kospi surging 4.5% and other benchmarks gaining more than 1%.

The gains came after the U.S. stock market roared back on Friday as technology stocks recovered much of their losses from earlier in the week and bitcoin halted its plunge.

The S&P 500 rallied 2% for its best day since May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,206 points, or 2.5%, and topped the 50,000 level for the first time, while the Nasdaq composite leaped 2.2%.

"Japan markets set for renewed 'Takaichi trade' after landslide election win"

From Reuters via MSN, February 8:

Japan's volatile financial markets must now contend with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi firmly in the driver's seat after her decisive victory on Sunday, which hands her an electoral mandate to reflate the economy.

The question for investors is whether Takaichi's electoral momentum will prompt her to expand her stimulus ambitions or if it lends her the political leeway to proceed more cautiously.

Since she began her rise to become the nation's first female premier in October, the "Takaichi trade" has pushed domestic shares to record highs while causing a precipitous selloff in Japanese government bonds and the yen.

Voters braved heavy snowfalls in Tokyo and other parts of Japan to deliver what exit polls indicated to be the most decisive win for Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party since 1996.

"The stock market is a true believer in Takaichi, so the big win is going to be good news for equities when the markets open on Monday," said Chris Scicluna, the head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe.

Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the late premier Shinzo Abe, has pledged a proactive fiscal policy funded largely through bond issuance.

She came to office at a low point in power and popularity for her Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-World War Two period, forcing her to bargain with opposition parties with even more liberal fiscal platforms.

"The administration's foundation will become much more stable, making it easier for expectations to build around advancing economic policy," said Kota Suzuki, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management. "Because there will no longer be a need to actively seek the opposition's cooperation, there will be less pressure for giveaway-style fiscal expansion."

With polls already indicating a decisive LDP win, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Index set an all-time high of 54,782.83 on Tuesday. Big winners of late include sectors like defence, artificial intelligence and chips that have been singled out by Takaichi for targeted investment.

But prospects for more government outlays have unsettled investors already concerned about Japan's debt burden, the largest in the developed world. Those worries came to a head on January 20, when rates across the JGB yield curve shot to multi-decade or even record highs after Takaichi called for the snap election and embraced suspending the sales tax on food....

....MUCH MORE 

That's the reason we went to Nikkei Asia for Saturday's "What Japan's Sunday election means for control of parliament". 

"Global Capital’s Break With the US Is Long Overdue"

The writer, Sony Kapoor is one of those economists famous-for-being-famous.

Not that there is anything wrong with that.

He has parlayed his brand/branding into some sweet gigs, I'll post his World Economic Forum mini-bio after the jump. 

From Bloomberg, February 5:

Trump’s policies have accelerated an overdue shift, as US market advantages fade and investors reassess their heavy exposure to American assets. 

The US today accounts for roughly two-thirds of global listed equity benchmarks, about half of private capital assets and around 40% of global bond markets. Yet it represents only about 4% of the world’s population, 10% of global growth, 13% of global trade and roughly 15% of global GDP on a purchasing-power-parity basis.

This extreme concentration of financial capital is not merely striking. It is economically inefficient, financially risky, and ultimately unsustainable.

Contrary to standard economic theory, global savings have flowed “uphill” from younger, faster-growing economies into a slowing and aging one. The result has been inflated US asset prices, rising correlations across global portfolios, and persistent capital scarcity in parts of the world where investment would raise productivity most. As Herbert Stein, the former chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers, once observed: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

It was only a matter of time before economic gravity, rising concentration risk, concerns about AI-driven asset-price excesses and the most basic investment tenet — diversification — triggered a rebalancing away from the United States.

Today, capital flows, relative market performance and institutional portfolio decisions show that the rebalancing is well underway and speeding up. And as I said in a series of speeches to investors in early 2025, “this rebalancing will boost growth and increase the resilience of the global economy.”

US policy under President Donald Trump has helped catalyze this acceleration. Tariff uncertainty, a transactional approach to alliances, renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, persistent fiscal slippage, saber-rattling over Greenland’s sovereignty and repeated challenges to domestic institutional guardrails have increased uncertainty around American policymaking.

But rising political risk alone does not explain the rebalancing. The deeper drivers are the exhaustion, and in some cases reversal, of the forces that powered an era of exceptional US financial outperformance, and the hypersaturation of investor portfolios with American assets.

Fading US Tailwinds
Since the global financial crisis, US equities have delivered exceptionally strong returns, several times faster than real economic growth. That apparent defiance of gravity drove foreign investors to more than triple their exposure to US equities in the past decade, to more than $20 trillion, most of it unhedged. This drove rising valuations and a stronger dollar, which further amplified gains, particularly for international investors.

But this era rested on a rare combination of factors, which have now run their course.

One was a four-decade secular decline in interest rates, which lifted asset valuations, especially for long-duration equities. A second was the near-halving of corporate tax rates, directly boosting post-tax profits. A third was quantitative easing, which inflated asset prices, particularly in the US. A fourth driver was the redistribution of income away from labor toward capital reflected in the rising share of profits in American GDP.

Research from the Federal Reserve suggests that lower interest rates and lower corporate taxes alone accounted for nearly half of US profit growth over the past three decades, and explained much of the expansion in valuation multiples.

As these tailwinds fade, profit growth and equity returns are likely to be materially lower than in the recent past, a point reinforced by the latest economic and investment outlooks.

At the same time, concentration risk has surged. In the last three years, just seven companies accounted for 55% of total S&P 500 returns. The top 10 stocks now make up 40% of the index, while the median US-listed company is now worth less than 2% of a large-cap peer. This is not broad-based growth, but a narrow and increasingly fragile bet.

The currency tailwind has also turned. A roughly 10% decline in the dollar has transformed what was once a powerful boost to returns for foreign investors into a growing drag.

As expected returns fall and risks rise, the logic of reallocation becomes irresistible for institutional investors bound by fiduciary duty to maximize risk-adjusted returns.

For decades, US Treasuries formed the bedrock of the global financial system, serving as the reference “risk-free” asset against which everything else was priced. That status allowed US governments and companies to borrow cheaply and at scale.

That assumption is now being reassessed....

....MUCH MORE 

Regarding the U.S. economy's place in the world, been there done that.

The intro to and outro from December 2012's WSJ Essay: "Why Innovation Won't Save Us":

I am an optimist who takes a perverse pleasure from dystopian, depressing or downright Bates Motel scenarios.
See:
Rosenberg
Edwards
Evans-Pritchard
The last three Drs. Doom...

*****

...We only have one sample of U.S. market history, only one time the U.S. rose to economic dominance, only one period of invention like the one described above.

Anyone who uses past performance as anything more than past performance is either a mental defective or a charlatan.

Also:

"Industrial Revolution Comparisons Aren't Comforting"

 First posted February 19, 2017.

Partly because of Eddington's Arrow of Time, at least in the mundane everyday experience, we only have one economic history dataset to work with. Because of this I used to argue with people who said this time will be like the last time but found that approach neither satisfying nor enlightening. I don't argue anymore, I just observe, like a kid watching a bug and wonder where the almost metaphysical certitude would be coming from, because, truth be told, nobody knows how this all works out.
Which I think is the point of this mini-essay....

Regarding the dollar, who knows where it should trade. April 2025:

Okay, You Tell Me: Should The Dollar Be Higher Or Lower? (DXY)

Here's the U.S. Dollar Index over the last 57 years (constituents changed with introduction of the euro):

TradingView 

99.691 up 0.104 last

DXY last I saw February 6, 2025:  97.68 up 0.05 (+0.05%)

And Professor Sony Kapoor via the WEF:

Sony Kapoor is an influential macroeconomist, investment expert, geopolitics adviser, sustainability enthusiast and development advocate with a 25-year track record of successfully tackling policy, geopolitical, investment, and sustainability challenges. His portfolio career uniquely spans investment banking, economic policymaking, strategy consulting, geopolitical advisory, interdisciplinary research, investment committees, C-Suite and Board roles, and the non-profit sector across five continents.

Currently, he is Chairman, World Benchmarking Alliance in the Netherlands, CEO, Nordic Institute for Finance, Technology and Sustainability in Norway, Trustee, Friends of Europe in Belgium, Commissioner for the Lancet Commission on Global Governance for Health in London, and was, until recently, the Interdisciplinary Professor of Climate, Finance, and Geoeconomics at the European University Institute in Italy. Mr Kapoor has also been a senior/strategy adviser to six G-20s, the EU, the UN, IMF, World Bank, many European & Emerging Market governments, large institutional investors and several corporates ranging from large MNCs to promising startups.

His successes in helping diffuse the Euro crisis, promoting global financial reform, accelerating climate action, and scaling up development finance have led to recognition as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum, a European Young Leader by the Friends of Europe, a Fellow by the Royal Society of Arts and Commerce, and the awards of a Presidential Fellowship by the Open Society Foundations, and a Gold Medal for Outstanding Public Discourse by The HIST at Trinity College Dublin.

Mr Kapoor is known for his insightful keynote speeches, influential reports & incisive agenda-setting advisory work. He has been invited to write for publications including The Economist, Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg and has been a frequent on Camera expert for the BBC, Bloomberg TV, France 24. His multifaceted advice on Geopolitics, Economics, Investment, Technology & Sustainability is in high demand by CEOs, corporate boards, government cabinets, investment committees and international organizations delivered through, advisory roles, high-level consultancies & invitations to deliver Keynotes & Seminars.