Friday, April 10, 2026

Capital Markets: "G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks"

To quote analyst James Morrison: "The future's uncertain and the end is always near."

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly consolidative. Equities were higher in the Asia Pacific region, with a few exceptions, and in Europe. Bond yields are firmer. Both WTI and Brent crude oil are trading with a slightly firmer bias but well within this week’s ranges. 

US and Iranian officials will meet in Pakistan tomorrow. The ceasefire apparently seen some violations and the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open as it was before the war. Yet market participants seem hopeful. At the same time, reports suggest Ukraine and Russia may be near a tentative agreement to stop hostilities. Meanwhile, reports suggest the Federal Reserve Powell and Treasury Secretary Bessent met with the large banks to discuss new risks generated by AI. Hungary goes to the polls this weekend and Prime Minister Orban is lagging in the polls. He is liked by the Trump administration (though its support may have cost him) and Russia and China. Still, the Hungarian forint is second strongest emerging market currency this week (~3.6%), lagging behind the Russian ruble’s 3.7% appreciation....

....MUCH MORE

In addition to discussing the upcoming CPI report Mr. Chandler points this out:

•    The dollar drew closer to the next important support area against the offshore yuan near CNH6.80 yesterday. It reached CNH6.8200 on Wednesday, a three-year low and consolidated above it yesterday. Since Wednesday’s low, the greenback has not been above CNH6.8420. Today, it has not been above CNH6.8345. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at CNY6.8654 (CNY6.8649 yesterday, a three-year low). The low fix in 2023 was around CNY6.7130.  

Which itself makes imports from China more expensive. 

Thursday, April 9, 2026

"Strait of Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels on Thursday, data shows"

From the Iran International liveblog for Thursday April 9:

Strait of Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels on Thursday, data shows

A total of six ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to data compiled by the global ship tracking firm MarineTraffic, CBS reported.

They included two oil, chemical or liquefied gas tankers, three cargo ships, and one bunkering vessel supplying fuel to other ships.

The figure compares with five cargo ships on Wednesday, with no oil, chemical or liquefied gas tankers recorded that day. On Tuesday, when a ceasefire was announced, 11 ships transited the strait, including nine tankers.

MarineTraffic data also showed that since February 28, at least 212 oil, chemical or liquefied gas tankers have crossed the strait, accounting for about 58% of all vessels passing through.

Top of the liveblog

"UBS has a stark message for investors on Nvidia stock" (NVDA)

From TheStreet, April 9:

One number from inside UBS is going to make a lot of investors do a double take 

Key Points

  • The model behind this call is not a hype-driven analyst note. It has been around for decades
  • Nvidia's performance inside this framework is unlike almost anything the model has seen before
  • The number UBS arrived at is so large that even the analyst presenting it expects to be disbelieved 

Most Wall Street analysts cover Nvidia with spreadsheets built on earnings estimates and price-to-earnings ratios. UBS has a different tool entirely, and what it is saying about Nvidia is striking.

UBS HOLT, the firm’s proprietary cash flow-based valuation framework, says Nvidia’s share price should be 400% higher than where it currently trades. That would put the company’s market capitalization at $22 trillion, compared with $4.46 trillion on April 8....

....MUCH MORE 

Though NVDA is up 86% over the last year the stock is actually down 5% in the last six months:

 

As a guess, and this is just a guess, the stock needs to close a bit higher, say $185 - 190 to get any meaningful lift-off to new all-time highs.

The ATH was $212.19 on Oct 29, 2026 followed a few days later with a double-top, $211.34 on Nov 3.

$183.73 last, up $1.65 (+0.91%) 

"Jeff Bezos Is Quietly Building an A.I. Dream Team at Project Prometheus"

From Observer, April 7:

Kyle Kosic, an OpenAI alum and founding member of Elon Musk's xAI, joins Project Prometheus as Bezos’s latest A.I. recruit. 

Jeff Bezos has been keeping a low profile since stepping in as co-CEO of Project Prometheus, the code name for his secretive A.I. startup, last year. But behind the scenes, he’s been busy. The company has been raising fresh capital, pursuing acquisitions and aggressively recruiting top talent across Silicon Valley. One of its newest hires is Kyle Kosic, recruited to join Bezos’s initiative after stints at OpenAI and xAI, according to the Financial Times. Kosic joins a fast-growing team filled with alumni from major tech companies. Like many of Project Prometheus’s recruits, he specializes in A.I. infrastructure. Such skills will be crucial as the company aims to transform engineering and manufacturing through automation powered by A.I.

Project Prometheus gives Bezos’s first operational position since stepping down as Amazon’s CEO in 2021. Although he remains the founder of Blue Origin, he’s no longer its chief executive. At Project Prometheus, however, he shares leadership duties with co-founder Vikram Bajaj, a former Google X researcher who also co-founded the life sciences venture Verily and the investment firm Foresite Capital. Since launching in 2025, Project Prometheus has expanded rapidly, filling offices in San Francisco, London and Zurich. 

Investors have taken notice. The startup raised $6.2 billion last year and now seeks another $6 billion to develop A.I. systems that move beyond large language models (LLMs) toward physical applications in real-world industries. Bezos and Bajaj are also reportedly in talks to raise a separate $100 million fund to acquire manufacturing companies in sectors such as semiconductors, defense and aerospace that could benefit from A.I. automation....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

November 17, 2025 - "Jeff Bezos Creates A.I. Start-Up Where He Will Be Co-Chief Executive" 

March 19, 2026 - "Jeff Bezos aims to raise $100 billion to buy, revamp manufacturing firms with AI, WSJ reports"
The Journal says the big money is in the Middle East and Singapore. It reads as though the new venture is separate from Project Prometheus.

"How serious will the jet fuel crisis in Europe become?"

From EuroNews, April 7:

 Jet fuel prices have increased by 95% since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February. Higher fares, fuel surcharges and reductions in capacity or limiting of unprofitable routes will be the new normal, energy analysts warn.

Recent air travel restrictions at several Italian airports due to concerns over fuel shortages linked to the Middle East conflict are raising the alarm that the trend could spread to other airports in the European Union.

Jet fuel prices have increased by 95% since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February. The war has culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy trade route handling around 20% of global crude oil exports, placing significant strain on global energy markets.

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has severely constrained supplies, with jet fuel—one of the most impacted refined products—facing worsening shortages in April and May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. 

While Asia is already feeling the impact of such a price increase — with several flights cancelled due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern imports — Europe could be next.  

Scandinavian airline SAS said it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April.

"The situation is challenging. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken out over 20% of the typical global seaborne jet fuel supply," George Shaw, senior insight analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler, told Euronews.

At least 42% of the total seaborne imports into the EU-27 and the United Kingdom passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Shaw added.

Securing supply and domestic refining....

....MUCH MORE 

Quanta Services Breaks Out To A New All-Time High (PWR)

Yesterday GE Vernova did the same before pulling back. To repeat our investing thesis:

"There might be something to this electricity stuff"

I really dislike the 140 page books written to justify taking a position in a name. As an extremely wealthy man once said to me: "Look, what I want to know is: What's the upside, what's the downside, what's the time frame?" 

So today, no news, just a dawning realization by the market that whether or not the AI buildout will continue, the electrical grid must be updated.

From MarketBeat, April 1:

Quanta Services Investor Day: CEO Pegs $2.4T TAM, Targets $21.60-$26.75 EPS by 2030

Key Points

  • Management said Quanta’s addressable market has expanded to about $2.4 trillion, positioning the company beyond utility infrastructure into large-load technology and generation work while emphasizing its ~85% self‑perform model and expanded supply‑chain investments (a stated $500M–$700M program and doubled transformer capacity) to drive execution certainty.
  • Through 2030 Quanta targets an organic revenue CAGR of 7%–10% (to $44B–$49B), an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10%–11%, ROIC of 12%–15%, and adjusted EPS of $21.60–$26.75 (a 15%–20% CAGR from 2025), with expected FCF conversion of 55%–60% and $10B–$12B of free cash flow over the period.
  • Executives highlighted workforce and safety as foundational, noting over $100M annual spend on workforce development, apprenticeship enrollments up >120%, deployment of AEDs (>$40M invested) credited with >50 lives saved, and veterans comprising over 20% of pre‑apprentice students....

....MUCH MORE 

Here's the Investor Day slide deck (87 page PDF) 

Possibly also of interest February 19, 2026: "Quanta Services Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - February 19, 2026 (PWR)

As noted over two years ago (January 2024): "There’s a Shortage of Electrical Wires, Transformers. That’s Good for These Stocks."

Over the next twenty years the entire U.S. electrical grid will have to be replaced.

Fifteen years ago when President Obama and Vice President Biden were talking Recovery Summer and "shovel ready jobs" the go-to stock for transmission infrastructure was Quanta Services (PWR). Unfortunately The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 ended up shoveling money to political constituencies other than the grid.*

PWR is still the contractor that utilities think of first when stringing lines but here's a slightly different approach. From Barron's, January 7....

And March 25, 2026:
Grid: "Wait times for Hitachi Energy transformers hit more than 30 months" - UPDATED
UPDATE - More On Electrical Transformer Shortages, This One's Big: "Micron's $24 billion Singapore fab could need 500 transformers...."

With this outro:

For what it's worth both GE Vernova and Quanta Services manufacture transformers. 

If interested see also:

May 20 2025: "Elon Musk says AI could run into power capacity issues by middle of next year"

*****

.....Previously on electrical transformers: 

March 2025 -  "This Essential Element of the Power Grid Is in Critically Short Supply" 
Elon Musk has been prophesying this for the last couple years. And here we are....

In between those two posts are dozens more, if interested the 'search blog' box is upper left.

PWR $588.37 up $12.13 (+2.11%)

  • Day's Range 577.40 - 592.29 (all-time-high)
  • 52 Week Range 240.81 - 592.29
  • Here's the 5-year chart from TradingView:

     

    Up 528% over the sixty months. For shorter holding periods the stock is up 142% in the last twelve months and is up 39% year-to-date.

    "US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate" (blame the shutdown)

    From Reuters, April 9:

    U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter amid downgrades to business investment, including inventory accumulation, but corporate profits increased ​sharply, government data showed on Thursday.
     
    Gross domestic product increased at a downwardly ‌revised 0.5% annualized rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth ​quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%.
     
    Economists polled by ​Reuters had forecast GDP growth would be unrevised at a 0.7% ⁠rate. Revisions to the fourth quarter's growth pace reflected downgrades to business spending ​on intellectual products as well as inventories.
     
    Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more ​than two-thirds of the economy, was revised down to a 1.9% pace from the previously reported 2.0% rate.
    Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the ​third quarter's 4.4% growth pace....
    ....MUCH MORE 
     
    And at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 9: 
     
    GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025 
    Q4 2025 (3rd)
    +0.5%
    Q3 2025
    +4.4%

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. At the state level, real GDP ranged from a 3.8 percent increase in North Dakota to a 8.3 percent decrease in the District of Columbia....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    "Shipping Avoids Hormuz Lanes as Iran Pushes Vessels Toward Controlled Corridors"

    From gCaptain, April 9: 

    The Trump administration has insisted the Strait of Hormuz is open following the ceasefire, but early shipping data suggests otherwise. Vessel movements remain extremely limited, with no meaningful return to normal traffic and energy shipments notably absent as shipowners await clarity on how transits will be conducted.

    Analysis from EOS Risk Group’s Head of Advisory, Martin Kelly, indicates that Iran’s latest directives—issued hours after a U.S.–Iran ceasefire—are already reshaping how vessels transit one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.

    According to Kelly, Iranian authorities have instructed commercial vessels to avoid traditional Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) lanes and instead use alternative corridors near Larak Island that have become a hallmark of the crisis so far, citing the risk of sea mines deployed during the conflict. Inbound traffic is reportedly being routed north of the island, with outbound vessels directed south, effectively shifting traffic closer to Iranian territorial waters....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Inflation: Personal Income and Expenditures, April 9 2026 (PCE Price Index UP 0.4% Monthly; UP 2.8% Year-over-Year)

    With a February 28 cut-off the numbers don't include Iran war effects. 

    From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Apr. 9:

    Personal Income and Outlays, February 2026

    Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $18.3 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent).

    This report for February 2026, originally scheduled for March 27, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.

    Disposable Personal Income, Outlays, and Saving

    Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $106.5 billion in February. Personal saving was $931.5 billion in February, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 4.0 percent.

    The decrease in current-dollar personal income in February primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income and personal current transfer receipts.

    The $103.2 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in February reflected increases of $58.7 billion in spending on goods and $44.5 billion in spending on services.

    Changes in Monthly Consumer Spending February 2026

    Real PCE increased $17.3 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February.

    From the preceding month, the PCE price index for February increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4 percent.

    From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Capital Markets: "Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm"

    From Marc to Market:

    It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Trump has suggested that perhaps the US participates in the toll collection for the Strait of Hormuz. 

    Equities have seen yesterday’s surge pared. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer. The greenback has been largely confined to narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Most are a little firmer, but not the Australian and Canadian dollars and Japanese yen. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat. Drawing very little attention, the PBOC set the dollar’s fix at a new three-year low for the third consecutive session....

    ....MUCH MORE  

    Wednesday, April 8, 2026

    "NASA's Artemis II just released the first photo of the far side"

    As the kids say IYKYK.

    "A pause with opposing terms: What Washington wanted, what Tehran demanded"

    From Iran International, April 8:

    The details are still incomplete, but the positions Tehran and Washington have publicly tied to the ceasefire suggest not a shared settlement so much as a temporary halt layered over unresolved hostilities.

    The precise texts are still only partly visible. The White House never publicly confirmed the full contents of the US 15-point proposal, saying only that some reporting had “elements of truth” but was “not entirely factual,” while Iranian state and semi-official media published a far more detailed public account of Tehran’s own terms.

    Still, enough has emerged to show how far apart the two sides remain.

    Public reporting on the US proposal described a plan centered on rolling back Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, curbing support for allied armed groups and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

    Iran’s 10-point plan pointed in the opposite direction. It sought recognition of enrichment, sweeping sanctions relief, compensation, continued influence over Hormuz, US military withdrawal from the region and an end to attacks on Iran and its allies.

    That distinction matters because a ceasefire can stop the shooting without answering the political question of what comes next.

    On the American side, the administration’s stated war aims remained consistent through March and April: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capability, sever support for what Washington calls terrorist proxies, and ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.

    Tehran’s public plan, by contrast, treated the ceasefire as the start of an arrangement that would preserve core elements of Iranian power rather than dismantle them.

    In March, that divide was already visible. Time, citing reporting from Israeli Channel 12 and other outlets, said the US proposal called for dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities, ending uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, decommissioning Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, limiting missile activity, ending support for proxy groups and keeping Hormuz open.

    Iran rejected the proposal and, even before its fuller 10-point plan appeared publicly, made clear it was seeking a permanent end to the war rather than a simple pause.

    Enrichment: rollback versus recognition

    No issue illustrates the contradiction more clearly than uranium enrichment.

    The publicly reported US plan sought to end enrichment inside Iran and dismantle the country’s main nuclear facilities. Tehran’s published plan did the reverse.

    Iranian media versions of the 10-point framework explicitly demanded acceptance of enrichment, and some outlets reported that the phrase appeared in the Farsi version even though it was omitted from some English versions shared publicly by Iranian media.

    That is not a minor drafting dispute. It is a disagreement over first principles. Washington’s reported position was that Iran’s nuclear program should be rolled back at its core. Tehran’s position was that enrichment should survive in principle, with any later discussion focused on scope rather than existence.

    So long as those remain the baseline positions, the ceasefire may limit violence while leaving one of the central causes of the conflict unresolved.

    Allied militias: disarmament versus protection

    The same gap runs through the issue of Iran’s regional allies.

    The Trump administration said one of its central objectives was to sever Iran’s support for proxies. Reporting on the 15-point proposal likewise said Washington wanted Tehran to stop financing and arming those groups.

    Iran’s public plan moved the other way. It called for an end to attacks not only on Iran but on its allies, and its 10-point version included a halt to war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

    That contradiction was not theoretical. It surfaced almost immediately after the ceasefire announcement.

    AP reported that Israel backed the US ceasefire with Iran but said it would continue operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, directly undercutting mediation claims that Lebanon was covered....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Photonics: "How Nvidia learned to embrace the light in its quest for scale" (NVDA)

    From The Register, April 5:

    The GPU king's move to optical scale-up was inevitable 

    If you thought Nvidia's GB200 rack systems were big, CEO Jensen Huang is just getting started. At GTC last month, the world's most valuable company revealed plans to use photonic interconnects to pack more than a thousand GPUs into a single mammoth system by 2028.

    The company isn't waiting to secure supply chains either. Over the past month, the GPU giant has invested billions in companies specializing in optics and interconnects, like Marvell, Coherent, and Lumentum, in preparation for the widespread deployment of these systems.

    "For everyone who is in our ecosystem, we need a lot more capacity," Huang said during his GTC keynote speech. "We need a lot more capacity for copper; we need a lot more capacity for optics; we need a lot more capacity for CPO; and that's why we've been working with all of you to lay the foundation for this level of growth."

    However, Nvidia's journey to this point began much earlier. In fact, by the time OpenAI revealed ChatGPT to the world in late 2022, Nvidia already knew it had a problem.

    At the time, the GPU giant's most potent systems only featured eight GPUs, and the models driving the AI boom required thousands to train. Nvidia needed a bigger box, or at least a faster network that could effectively distribute work across dozens of chips.

    We caught our first glimpse of this with Nvidia's Grace Hopper superchips in 2023, but it wasn’t until early 2024 that the full picture came into view. Unveiled at GTC that year, the Grace Blackwell NVL72, a monstrous 120 kilowatt machine, uses a copper backplane containing miles of cables to make 36 nodes and 72 GPUs behave like one enormous AI accelerator.

    Copper was the natural choice for this, Gilad Shainer, senior VP of networking at Nvidia, told El Reg

    "Copper is the best connectivity, if you can use it," he said. "It's very cost effective, very cheap, and consumes zero power. It's very reliable. There are no active components."

    But copper isn't perfect. At 1.8 TB/s, the cables could only stretch a few feet before the signal degraded as GPUs communicated with one another. If you ever wondered why the NVL72's NVSwitches are all in the center of the rack, it's because the runs were that short. Copper's limited reach also meant Nvidia had to cram as many GPUs into a single rack as possible.

    Two years later, Nvidia is rapidly approaching the limits of copper and will need to embrace optics if it wants to assemble an even bigger GPU system.

    The pluggable problem 
    When Huang first showed off the NVL72 rack, codenamed Oberon, the only commercially viable way to connect two accelerators optically would have been to use pluggable optics.

    These modules are about the size of a pack of gum and contain all the lasers, retimers, and digital signal processing required to turn electrical signals into light and back again.

    Pluggables are nothing new in datacenter networks, but using them for scale-up compute fabrics, like Nvidia's NVLink, presents certain problems.

    To reach the 1.8 TB/s of bandwidth, each Blackwell GPU would have required eighteen 800 Gbps pluggables: nine for the accelerator, and another nine for the switch. On their own, these pluggables don't use that much power – around 10-15 watts – but multiplied across 72 GPUs, that adds up pretty quickly.

    As Huang noted in his 2024 GTC keynote speech, optics would have required an additional 20,000 watts of power. 

    However, a lot has changed since the Oberon rack was first revealed. Advancements in co-packaged optics (CPO), which integrates optical engines directly alongside the switch ASIC, have helped drive down power consumption.

    In 2025, Nvidia became one of the first AI infrastructure providers to embrace CPO by integrating it directly into its Spectrum Ethernet and Quantum InfiniBand switches. (Broadcom-based Micas Networks was making similar moves.)

    This dramatically reduced the number of pluggables required to build an AI training cluster. However, it was only more recently that the company began discussing the use of optics and CPO for its NVSwitch fabrics.

    NVLink goes optical 
    After pooh-poohing optical interconnects as too power-hungry two years earlier, Huang revisited the topic at GTC this spring by unveiling the Vera Rubin NVL576 and Rosa Feynman NVL1152, two multi-rack systems that would use photonics to expand their compute domains by a factor of eight....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Most recently - March 31: Photonics: "Nvidia Invests $2 Billion in Marvell, Announces Partnership" (MRVL; NVDA)

    And back in the dark ages (see what I did there?):

    November 6, 2015 - "NVIDIA: “Expensive and Worth It,” Says MKM Partners" (NVDA)  

    We don't do much individual stock stuff on the blog but this one is special.
    We use it as an example of what Silicon Valley used to be, when high tech meant high technology and not a new app for some (still) mundane task.

    Simply put, NVIDIA makes some of the fastest computer chips in the world.
    They are used in gaming systems that require graphics that don't  make you (literally) puke. Right now automakers use their chips for graphic displays.

    The future: Robocars? May 2015: "Nvidia Wants to Be the Brains Of Your Autonomous Car (NVID)":

    Among the fastest processors in the business are the one's originally developed for video games and known as Graphics Processing Units or GPU's. Since Nvidia released their Tesla hardware in 2008 hobbyists (and others) have used GPU's to build personal supercomputers.
    Here's Nvidias Build your Own page.
    Or have your tech guy build one for you.

    In addition Nvidia has very fast connectors they call NVLink.
    Using a hybrid combination of IBM Central Processing Units (CPU's) and Nvidia's GPU's, all hooked together with NVIDIA's NVLink, Oak Ridge National Laboratory is building what will be the world's fastest supercomputer when it debuts in 2018.

    As your kid plays Grand Theft Auto.... 

    Apparently "Death to America" didn't mean what it sounded like.

    Huh.

    The Embassy of the Islamic Republic to South Africa is of course directly contradicting the  Ayatollah-once-removed:

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Death To America Is Not Just A Slogan, It's Policy

    Pretty snappy tagline from the old boy.

    "Climateer Investing, it's not just a blog, it's a lifestyle." I should hire this guy.

    Possibly related: 

      

    "Anthropic says its most powerful AI cyber model is too dangerous to release publicly...."

    From VentureBeat, April 7:

    Anthropic on Tuesday announced Project Glasswing, a sweeping cybersecurity initiative that pairs an unreleased frontier AI model — Claude Mythos Preview — with a coalition of twelve major technology and finance companies in an effort to find and patch software vulnerabilities across the world's most critical infrastructure before adversaries can exploit them.

    The launch partners include Amazon Web Services, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Palo Alto Networks. Anthropic says it has also extended access to more than 40 additional organizations that build or maintain critical software, and is committing up to $100 million in usage credits for Claude Mythos Preview across the effort, along with $4 million in direct donations to open-source security organizations.

    The announcement arrives at a moment of extraordinary momentum — and extraordinary scrutiny — for the San Francisco-based AI startup. Anthropic disclosed on Sunday that its annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $30 billion, up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025, and the number of business customers each spending over $1 million annually now exceeds 1,000, doubling in less than two months. The company simultaneously announced a multi-gigawatt compute deal with Google and Broadcom. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic had poached a senior Microsoft executive, Eric Boyd, to lead its infrastructure expansion.

    But Glasswing is something categorically different from a revenue milestone or a compute deal. It’s Anthropic's most ambitious attempt to translate frontier AI capabilities — capabilities the company itself describes as dangerous — into a defensive advantage before those same capabilities proliferate to hostile actors.

    Why Anthropic built a model it considers too dangerous to release publicly....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Capital Markets: "Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits"

    From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

    Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about 13% lower. The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 and emerging market currencies that are trading. The ceasefire is overwhelming other developments including the central banks in New Zealand and India standing pat. 

    Global investors have responded to the news, and that may leave North American participants in an awkward position. They will be greeted with large moves and may be reluctant to substantially extend the moves without seeing further developments....

    ....MUCH MORE  

    "First ships pass through Strait of Hormuz since ceasefire — monitor"

    From Agence France-Presse via the Times of Israel's liveblog, April 8:

    Two ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Iran agreed to reopen the waterway as part of a ceasefire deal, maritime monitor Marine Traffic says.

    “The Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth crossed the Strait at 08:44 UTC, while the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach transited earlier at 06:59 UTC, shortly after departing Bandar Abbas at 05:28 UTC,” MarineTraffic says on X.

    Liveblog home - https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-08-2026/

    Tuesday, April 7, 2026

    "Iran’s supreme leader ‘unconscious and receiving treatment in Qom’"

    It looks like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is running Iran but see after the jump for an interesting observation regarding the army (Artesh) vs. the IRGC.

    From the Times O'London, April 6:

    A diplomatic memo reveals the location of Mojtaba Khamenei. He was wounded in the same US-Israeli airstrike that killed his father 

    Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is incapacitated and receiving medical treatment in the holy city of Qom, according to an intelligence assessment which suggests he is not capable of running the country. 

    A diplomatic memo understood to be based on American and Israeli intelligence and shared with Gulf allies suggests that Khamenei, the son of the killed long-time leader Ali Khamenei, is unconscious and being treated for a “severe” medical condition. 

    The memo, seen by The Times, reveals the supreme leader’s location for the first time. The central city, 87 miles south of Tehran, is considered sacred in Shia Islam. 

    Mojtaba Khamenei is being treated in Qom in a severe condition, unable to be involved in any decision making by the regime,” it reads.

    Iran war latest: follow live 

    According to the memo, the elder Khamenei’s body is being prepared for burial in Qom, the seat of Shia clerical power, known as the religious capital of the country. 

    It states that intelligence agencies identified the preparation of “laying the groundworks needed to build a large mausoleum in Qom” for “more than one grave”, suggesting that other family members — and possibly Mojtaba himself — could be buried alongside the late supreme leader.

    Information on the younger Khamenei’s location is thought to have been known by US and Israeli spy agencies for some time but has not previously been made public.

    The US National Security Agency, which is responsible for processing global intelligence on behalf of the Department of War, has been contacted about the memo, as has Iran’s representation in Washington, which is based at the Pakistani embassy.....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Though the report doesn't come out and say it, that sounds like the new supreme leader is in a coma. Which may make the following more important than it would otherwise be. It appears the Israelis have been deliberately sparing the upper ranks of the army and civilian government while killing the hard-core IRGC and Mullocracy:

    Meaning that should the hard-core lose their grip on power, there will be some folks left to negotiate a peace.

    You always want to leave someone you can negotiate with. 

    With Attacks Halted, Iran Agrees To Re-Open Strait of Hormuz, Begin Talks April 10

    Two from Singapore's Straits Times, April 8: 

    Trump agrees to suspend attacks on Iran for 2 weeks; Tehran says talks will begin on April 10 

    Follow our live coverage here.

    WASHINGTON - US President Donald Trump on April 7 said he was suspending the bombing of Iran for two weeks but that Tehran must reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, barely an hour before his apocalyptic deadline to destroy the country was set to expire.

    After more than five weeks of blistering attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, Mr Trump said he had accepted a proposal mediated by Pakistan to extend his deadline but he again pushed on the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway vital for the world’s oil.

    Mr Trump said he had spoken to Pakistan’s leaders who “requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran”.

    “And subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

    “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East,” he added.

    He said Iran had sent a 10-point plan to the US that he called “workable” for negotiations.

    The Islamic republic said in a statement released alongside a list of the 10 points published by state media that the plan would require “continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions”.

    Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US, Iran and their allies had agreed to a ceasefire “everywhere”, including in Lebanon, following mediation by his government to stop weeks of fighting....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    And the Straits Times liveblog:

    Live

    • Iran says safe transit through Strait of Hormuz possible for 2 weeks ‘if attacks halted’ 
    • Tehran says talks with US will begin on Friday in Islamabad. 
    • Asia stocks soar after US, Iran ceasefire announcement

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate Falls Further Following Latest Update

    From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, April 7: 

    1.3%
    Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q1
    Updated: April 07, 2026 

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.3 percent on April 7, down from 1.6 percent on April 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and 5.5 percent. 

    https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Project/Atlanta/FRBA/Images/cqer/research/gdpnow/gdpnow-forecast-evolution.webp?w=1996&hash=4ED8555B4DFE79F8F63BD5413CD0A415 

    As noted exiting from the last update

    ...And even more troubling, as we've observed over the years, the Atlanta Fed's model tends to run hot until it converges with the first (flash) actual GDP report.

    Hmmm... 

    International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol Interview: 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked

    From/via ZeroHedge, April 7:

    International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock "is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined" because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

    Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

    The newspaper asked Birol, "How quickly can Gulf production recover?"

    He responded:

    "We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover."

    Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:

    Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?

    Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.

    Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?

    Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility....

    ....MORE 

    "US stock futures turn negative, oil flips positive after Iranian media reports explosions on Kharg Island"

    From Sherwood News, April 7:

    Stocks returned to negative territory in premarket trading and oil futures jumped after Iranian state-sponsored media said that explosions were heard on Kharg Island.

    The Mehr News agency, which reported this at 6:25 a.m ET, did not comment on the source of these explosions....

    ....MUCH MORE

    And at the Associated Press: 

    Iran calls for human chains to protect power plants as Trump’s deadline nears 

    Monday, April 6, 2026

    Australian (Nvidia-Backed) Data Center Builder Firmus Raises $505 Million

     From Bloomberg, April 6:

    Data center builder Firmus Technologies Pty raised $505 million in an investment round led by Coatue Management LLC, part of a global push to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure.

    The deal values the Australian startup at $5.5 billion, Firmus said Monday. Nvidia Corp., the top maker of AI accelerator chips, also participated in the round.

    The cash will go toward rapidly deploying AI hardware based on forthcoming Nvidia computer technology in the Asia-Pacific region. Firmus, which has data center projects in Australia and Singapore, has raised $1.35 billion in the last six months, including this latest transaction.

    Firmus is leading an effort called Southgate, a plan to build data center capacity in Australia that runs on renewable energy, starting with a site in Tasmania. That facility will house computers based on 36,000 Nvidia accelerator chips after its first two rounds of technology deployments. The powerful processors help develop and run AI models by bombarding them with data.

    Nvidia, often in partnership with venture capital investors, has invested billions of dollars in AI companies. It’s aiming to help cultivate an industry that has already fueled explosive sales growth and turned Nvidia into the world’s most valuable business.

    As with the Firmus funding, Nvidia is backing companies that also buy its products. Some investors have expressed concern about the circular nature of these deals, something Nvidia has pushed back on.

    Read More: A Guide to the Circular Deals Underpinning the AI Boom

    Coatue, which has more than $70 billion in assets under management, has made its own push into AI technology. The New York-based investment firm has backed computing infrastructure as well as service providers like OpenAI and Anthropic PBC....

    ....MORE (sovereign AI) 

    If interested see also:

    December 2023 - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Says AI to See ‘Major Second Wave (NVDA)

    AI to See ‘Major Second Wave,’ NVIDIA CEO Says in Fireside Chat With iliad Group Exec
    NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang says sovereign AI a growing need for countries to reflect unique cultural, linguistic, industrial characteristics
    European startups will get a massive boost from a new generation of AI infrastructure, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang said Friday in a fireside chat with iliad Group Deputy CEO Aude Durand — and it’s coming just in time.

    February 2024 - "Nvidia chief sees rise of ‘sovereign AI’ infrastructure across nations, driving demand for company’s advanced chips"

    This is the sort of thing we were referring to in January 20's "Advanced Micro Devices to Build 2 New Supercomputers in Germany (AMD)": "Taking a page out of Nvidia's playbook."

    Nvidia wants every language to have its own large language model. And they want every country to have an Nvidia powered supercomputer (or five) to train and run the LLM on....

    ....Bi-lingual Canada is good but multi-lingual India is Mr. Huang's dream country.

    PM Modi's people should ask for two free supercomputers upfront as part of a five 'puter order.

    And side dishes. Maybe a billion dollars worth of gaming chips.

    March 2024 - Here's Nvidia's "Sovereign AI" Pitch (NVDA)

    ***** 

    ....This is terrible. I now have Jensen Huang speaking in Dr. Martin Luther King's cadences as he repurposes the penultimate paragraph of "I have a Dream":

    Let AI ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia.
    Let AI ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee.
    Let AI ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi.
    From every mountainside, let AI ring. 

    I may have to go lie down.

    ...Every, town, every village, every hamlet, every wide spot in the road, should have their own (NVDA-powered) supercomputer.

    June 16, 2024
    France's "Mistral AI warns of lack of data centres and training capacity in Europe" 

    October 4, 2024
    "Parlez-vous AI? Francophone scholars warn against English language dominating AI" 

    November 6, 2024
    Singapore: "Chinese Group Accused of Hacking Singtel in Telecom Attacks"

    ....Our last couple mentions of Singtel were in reference to Nvidia's roll-out of the Blackwell chip for their sovereign AI program:

    December 2024 - Canada commits $1.4B to sovereign compute infrastructure as it joins the AI arms race

    January 2025 - "Jensen Huang Wants to Make AI the New World Infrastructure" (NVDA)

    This sovereign AI you speak of, I have heard of it.  

    I have heard wondrous tales of immense wealth,

    Of amazing deeds performed as if by magic.
    Yes I have heard of all of this...*

    And many more. 

    Memory: "Samsung flags eightfold jump in Q1 profit as AI chip demand drives up prices"

    From Reuters, April 7:

    • Samsung estimates 57.2 trillion won in Q1 operating profit vs 6.7 trillion won year earlier
    • Analysts estimate 40.6 trillion won in Q1 operating profit
    • Chipmakers struggle to keep ​up with demand from AI data centres

    SEOUL, April 7 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), on Tuesday projected a record-high first-quarter profit, up more than eightfold from a year earlier and well above expectations as booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure ​caused supply bottlenecks and drove chip prices higher.

    The world's largest memory chipmaker ​estimated an operating profit of 57.2 trillion won ($37.92 billion) for the ⁠January to March period, compared with an LSEG SmartEstimate of 40.6 trillion ​won and a more than eight-fold jump from 6.69 trillion won a year earlier. 

    The ​preliminary results nearly triple Samsung's previous record quarterly operating profit of 20 trillion won, reached in the fourth quarter last year....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    If interested see also: 

    January 3 - "AI data centers are swallowing the world's memory and storage supply, setting the stage for a pricing apocalypse that could last a decade" 

    January 5 - "Memory chipmakers rise as global supply shortage whets investor appetite"

    January 7 -  Memory: "Samsung bulls bet record earnings will extend US$350b rally" (005930:Korea)

    January 12 - Chips: "While you pay through the nose for memory, Samsung expects to triple its profits in Q4"

    January 28 - Memory: Samsung’s profit triples, beating estimates...

    January 30 - Memory: "Do It Now: Industry Insiders Urge Consumers To Front-Run PC, TV, Smartphone Purchases As 'Memory Crunch' Will Intensify"

    February 24 - Chips: "Samsung, SK Hynix Drive Korea Benchmark’s Breakthrough Past 6000"

    February 27 - Inflation: "Smartphone market set for biggest-ever decline in 2026 on memory price surge, IDC says"

    March 2 - Memory: "The inflation spark that could become a deflation shock?" 

    March 2 - “'Entry-Level PC Segment Will Disappear by 2028,' Says Gartner, as Soaring Memory Costs Start to Cripple Manufacturers"

    March 3 - Thanks for the Memories: "South Korea’s Kospi plunges 12% amid broader declines in Asia markets as Iran conflict rages" 
    The index, which has been driven by the memory chip makers, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. et al., up over 145% from March 2025 to the February 25, 2026 peak is now down 10% on the day, March 4th.

    March 18 - Memory: Shortage Could Last Five Years, It's The Wafers

    "Economists Once Dismissed the A.I. Job Threat, but Not Anymore"

    From the New York Times, April 3:

    Artificial intelligence hasn’t disrupted the labor market, economists say, but they are increasingly convinced that it will — and that policymakers are unprepared. 

    Among tech evangelists in Silicon Valley, it has become conventional wisdom that artificial intelligence will rapidly reshape the labor market, for better or worse. Economists, however, have often discussed A.I.’s impact with a skepticism bordering on dismissiveness.

    Rising unemployment among young college graduates? The result of high interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty. Dire predictions of widespread job losses? A failure to understand the lessons of past technological revolutions. Even the layoffs that companies themselves blamed on artificial intelligence were often chalked up to “A.I.-washing” from executives looking for something to blame other than their own mismanagement.

    Recently, however, the message from economists has undergone a subtle change. Most still do not see much evidence that A.I. is disrupting the job market. But they are starting to take seriously the possibility that it could someday soon. If it does, they are worried that policymakers are not ready to respond.

    “I don’t think A.I. has hit the labor market yet, and I don’t think it’s radically changed corporate productivity yet, either, but I think it’s coming,” said Daniel Rock, a University of Pennsylvania economist who has studied the economic impact of artificial intelligence.

    In a working paper published this week, a team of researchers surveyed economists about their outlook over the next five and 25 years. Most expect the economy to grow a bit more quickly as A.I. improves, but not to diverge substantially from historical patterns. If the technology improves rapidly — a possibility they consider unlikely but plausible — they envision a far more drastic scenario with faster growth but also greater inequality and the disappearance of millions of jobs.

    “Economists are certainly taking A.I. seriously,” said Ezra Karger, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago who was one of the study’s authors.

    Economists’ expectations for the future looked relatively similar to those of A.I. industry insiders, who were also surveyed for the study. Both groups agree the future is uncertain: A.I. could either wipe out whole categories of jobs or cause few job losses. Its effects could be concentrated among entry-level white-collar workers or spread to more experienced workers and those in blue-collar jobs. The changes could upend the economy within years or take decades to play out.

    Given the potential scale of the disruption, economists say it is time to start considering the policies that could help workers displaced or otherwise harmed by the changing economy — something that societies often failed to accomplish in past technological transitions.

    “There’s enough conversation around this that we certainly should, as a country, be talking about what sorts of policies make sense in a world where the way employment and careers work now changes a lot in the next two to five years,” said Robert Seamans, an economist at New York University.


    A Paradigm Shift
    When OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public in November 2022, Alex Imas, an economist at the University of Chicago, did not necessarily see it as an economic game changer, he said. The technology was powerful but limited, prone to mistakes and incapable of producing work with the quality and consistency necessary for most professional applications.

    “I knew it was important, but I was definitely on the more skeptical side when it first came out,” Mr. Imas recalled.

    For Mr. Imas, the real shift came in late 2024, when OpenAI released a model capable of “reasoning,” meaning it could work through a question step by step before producing an answer. That ability greatly expanded the type of problems the model could tackle, and made it more reliable at solving them.

    “It was just a paradigm shift for me,” Mr. Imas said. “And then I started thinking, ‘This is potentially an industrial revolution-scale event, if not more.’”

    For other economists, the shift came just in the past few months, with the release of Claude Code — a tool from the A.I. company Anthropic that writes computer code from users’ prompts — and the widespread rollout of A.I. “agents,” autonomous systems capable of performing tasks directly.

    Molly Kinder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies A.I., said that as she experimented with the new tools, she had a realization: She no longer needed anyone to do the kind of basic research that she ordinarily hired college students and recent graduates to perform — and that she had performed herself early in her career.

    “I really don’t know anything a college student can bring to my team that Claude can’t do,” she said. More senior jobs — ones that require interacting with clients and investors, or making strategic decisions — may be safe for now, she said. But “if you can do your job locked in a closet with a computer, ultimately you’re going to be in trouble.”

    Everywhere but the Statistics
    Technological advancement alone will not reshape the economy. For that to happen, companies need to adopt the tools and figure out how to use them productively.

    History shows that the process almost always takes longer than the inventors expect. Legal and regulatory hurdles slow things down. Companies have to retrain workers or hire new ones. Corporate leaders have to develop new processes and overcome resistance from reluctant managers and cautious information technology departments.

    “These conversations have been, in my opinion, overly focused on what the technology can do,” said Martha Gimbel, the executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale University. “There’s plenty of technology that could have changed things and didn’t.”

    Many hospitals kept patients’ health records on paper for decades after the technology existed to digitize them, Ms. Gimbel noted. Videoconferencing tools have existed for years, but it took a pandemic to force companies to embrace them.

    There are signs that A.I. could flow through the economy more quickly than past innovations. Already, nearly one in five companies reports having used A.I. in the last two weeks, according to data from the Census Bureau, and in some industries the rate is twice as high. Workers report using A.I. at even higher rates, suggesting many may be experimenting with the tools on their own initiative.

    And while A.I. has not yet had a big impact on aggregate statistics, some economists argue its effects are visible beneath the surface. In a paper published last year, researchers at Stanford University found that employment was declining for entry-level workers in jobs that were highly exposed to A.I.

    Technological advancements “sometimes take decades” to appear in the economy in the form of increased productivity, said Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the authors of the Stanford paper. “I don’t think it’s going to be decades this time.”

    ‘How Painful Is It Going to Be?’....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Earlier today at Yahoo Finance:

    Goldman Sachs' blunt warning to laid-off tech workers: It will take time and earnings loss to find a new job