Friday, July 11, 2025

There's a Potato Shortage In Russia

From The Telegraph, July 7:

The Russian potato shortage that shows Putin’s economy is on the brink
Surging food prices and labour shortages are fuelling inflation and making Moscow vulnerable
When the last leader of the Soviet Union visited Chequers for lunch with prime minister Margaret Thatcher in 1984, one topic of discussion was potatoes.

Raisa Gorbachev, the wife of Soviet leader Mikhail, claimed Russia had 300 ways of cooking the humble spud, prompting Michael Jopling, Britain’s agriculture minister, to express disbelief.

She later posted a Russian cookbook to Jopling with the clarification: “In fact, there are 500, rather than 300, recipes to cook potatoes.”

For Vladimir Putin, Russians’ appetite for the vegetable has become problematic, however. Shortages have pushed up prices by 167pc over the past year, the biggest rise of any food.

“It turns out that we don’t have enough potatoes,” Putin admitted during a televised meeting in May, adding: “I spoke with [Belarusian leader] Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko. He said, ‘We’ve already sold everything to Russia.’”

Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made Russia the world’s most sanctioned country, eagle-eyed economists have watched closely for signs of economic damage which have proved remarkably elusive.

But now surging food prices and labour shortages are keeping inflation high, driving big cracks in the economy.

“We’re basically already on the brink of falling into a recession,” economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov told a conference recently.

Could Russia’s well-oiled war machine be running out of steam?

The strain is definitely starting to show, says Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“Slowing economic growth coupled with high inflation leaves Russia close to stagflation,” says Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia’s central bank.

It means Putin is vulnerable. Further falls in oil prices or a tightening of sanctions can now inflict far greater harm than they did previously, Prokopenko warns. “None the less, we are not quite there yet,” she cautions.

Another economist at a European bank, who didn’t want to be named, said the waters were still muddied when it came to Russia’s economy.

“The momentum is much slower than it used to be. If we look at the deficit, it has been widening. That suggests that despite the fiscal support, which is most likely aimed at military-related areas, the Russian economy is clearly not as robust as it used to be,” they said.

In other words, Putin’s war economy is likely at capacity: “The potential to draw more people into the army and military production has been used. There is a limit to how many shifts people can work in factories, producing munitions and military uniforms.”

As a result, inflation was running high at 9.9pc in May, fuelled by billions of roubles ploughed into the war effort, worker shortages and other price pressures. To quell it, interest rates are at 20pc, even after a one percentage point cut in June....
....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "US Tariffs Unsettle the Markets while the UK's May GDP Unexpectedly Contracted"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US 35% tariff on Canada and President Trump's threat to have a 15%-20% universal tariff rather than 10% provides today's disruption. A tariff letter for the EU is awaited but seeing how the US treated Canada and Brazil (with whom the US has a trade surplus) warns of the risk to Europe. That said, the full details of the tariff threat on Canada, given the free-trade deal, have not been reported yet. The dollar is firmer against the G10 currencies. The backing up of US rates arguably helped push the yen to the bottom of the leaders' board with a 0.5%-0.6% loss. The Canadian dollar is at a new low for the month and is off about 0.35%. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in May, the second consecutive month. Sterling is off around 0.25%. Most emerging market currencies are lower. The Chinese yuan is a notable exception after the PBOC set the dollar's fix at its lowest level since last November. 

Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region advanced. South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India were exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day advance and is nursing a 0.85% loss, which if sustained, would be the largest in nearly a month. US index futures are off 0.5%-0.6%. Benchmark 10-year interest rates are up 2-3 bp in Europe, even UK Gilts, and are mostly 8-10 bp higher on the week. The 10-year Gilt yield is up about 3 bp this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up a little more than three basis points today, and around 4.38%, is nearly flat on the week. Gold is higher for the third consecutive session. It stalled near the week's high set Tuesday near $3345. News that Saudi output was greater than expected may be helping keep August WTI pinned near yesterday's low (~$66.45)....

....MUCH MORE  

Thursday, July 10, 2025

"China coup? Rumours of Xi Jinping’s decline are premature"

Note the 'may'. I don't know for a fact but there are observations that point in that direction....

And from the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter, July 10: 

Despite speculation about leadership challenges, evidence
suggests Xi Jinping holds firm control over China’s political system. 

In recent weeks, a flurry of reports has predicted the imminent downfall of China’s President Xi Jinping. Similar rumours have surfaced repeatedly over his 13-year rule – and each time have proven false. While scepticism about Xi’s invincibility is warranted, history suggests that today’s chatter will likely also turn out to be unfounded.

To be sure, something strange is happening in Beijing. Since Xi began his third term in 2022, several of his hand-picked appointees have been removed, prompting speculation about a power struggle in the Chinese Communist Party. Most of the activity has occurred in the military, leading some to conclude that Xi is losing control of the armed forces. But not all analysts agree with this assessment. Some see the intrigue as evidence of Xi’s further consolidation of power or even as infighting among his subordinates that has no effect on him.

Despite the noise, no one has credibly explained how a leader who dominates every significant CCP organisation could be toppled. All seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee are either long-time Xi allies or have served him loyally for over a decade. More than half of the broader Politburo’s 24 members are his protégés, and nearly all the others had direct ties to him prior to their appointments. The factions rumoured to be plotting against Xi lack meaningful representation in the bodies that appoint and remove senior officials. The notion that these sidelined groups have somehow outmanoeuvred a political operator as shrewd and relentless as Xi strains credulity.

Nor has Xi made a recent blunder so catastrophic that it would convince his allies that his continued rule is a liability to the Party. His Covid-19 strategy collapsed in 2022, resulting in a year of widespread lockdowns that stalled economic activity, threatened social stability, and saddled provincial governments with dangerous levels of debt. But that was three years ago. Instead of punishing Xi, the Party awarded him a precedent-breaking third term and allowed him to further consolidate his control.

For all the turbulence of Xi’s tenure, the CCP generally views him as a success. Xi has presided over China’s rise as a global power and reasserted the Party’s control of society more comprehensively than any leader since Mao. Though his handling of the economy and of US-China relations has drawn some criticism, few believe removing him would erase US tariffs or improve China’s global standing. If anything, Xi is credited with forcing Washington back to the negotiating table in the latest trade standoff....

....MUCH MORE 

"Shares of China’s Solar Firms Jump Amid Moves to End Price War"

From Asia Financial, July 10:

Shares of solar panel-makers have soared this week since Beijing said it would end severe discounting that has troubled them for months; polysilicon has also soared. 

Stocks of big Chinese solar manufacturers rose sharply again on Thursday, on news that Beijing wants to cool severe price cutting that has troubled the sector this year.

Massive overcapacity among panel makers and price discounts undertaken to sell stock have sparked price wars and fears that more cuts could entrench deflation and undermine the broader economy.

The prices of some components fell by nearly 30% in the year to May, according to one estimate.

Shares of top manufacturer JA Solar rose nearly 10% and have gained 20% since July 1, when the top leaders of the world’s second biggest economy vowed measures to halt the price wars in the solar and other industries.

That step was followed by an industry ministry pledge on July 3 to curb price wars and phase out outdated capacity in the solar industry.

Prices in the solar industry have fallen nearly 30% between May 2024 and May 2025, the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) assessment for high-efficiency tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules shows.

Stock prices of peers Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar and Trina Solar have risen more than 10% this month. The companies did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

Last week Longi told state media it would commercialise high-efficiency products sooner to overcome the low-price dilemma.

Polysilicon sees big rise...

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Asia Financial:

July 4 -  Beijing Moves to Prop up Solar Panelmakers Hit Hard by Price War

"The end of drone supremacy"

That was quick.

From Politico.eu, July 9:

Offensive drones have had a brief window of domination. But it was only a matter of time before effective counter-drone capabilities emerged.  

Mark T. Kimmitt is a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and has also served as the U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs.

In May, Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems acknowledged the use of high-power laser systems in combat. Part of the company’s previously undisclosed Iron Lite program, it’s already credited with intercepting “scores of enemy threats.”

Most crucially, its high effectiveness, far lower cost and scalability, combined with dozens of other counter-drone and defensive programs under development around the world, ends the argument over whether the drone has been a revolution in modern warfare: It has not. And the brief era of drone supremacy has ended.

"Pentagon to become largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials; shares surge 40%"

We, of course, downplayed MP in April 18's ""The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions" (LYC.ax; MP)":

...Although MP Materials is getting the attention in the U.S., Australia's Lynas has a better mix of the various rare earths.... 

Who needs the Memento mori guy when you have the stock market to remind you "you are not the boss of the universe"*

From CNBC, July 10:

  • The Defense Department will buy $400 million of preferred stock in MP Materials.
  • MP Materials owns the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S. at Mountain Pass, California.
  • It will build a second magnet manufacturing facility in the U.S. with the support of the Pentagon. 

The Defense Department will become the largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials

after agreeing to buy $400 million of its preferred stock, the company said Thursday.

MP Materials owns the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S. at Mountain Pass, California, about 60 miles outside Las Vegas. Proceeds from the Pentagon investment will be used to expand MP’s rare earths processing capacity and magnet production.

Shares of MP Materials jumped more than 40% premarket on the news.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in April that the Trump administration was considering making direct equity investments in critical mineral companies to break U.S. dependence on China.

“This initiative marks a decisive action by the Trump administration to accelerate American supply chain independence,” MP Materials CEO James Litinsky said in a statement.

The Pentagon is buying a newly created class of preferred shares convertible into MP Materials’ common stock, in addition to a warrant that allows the U.S. to buy additional common stock.

The convertible shares and the exercise of the common stock warrant would equal about a 15% stake in MP Materials as of July 9, nearly twice the 8.61% held by Litinsky and the 8.27% held by BlackRock Fund Advisors, according to FactSet data....

....MUCH MORE 
*"Remember that you will die," a shorter version of "Respice post te! Hominem te esse memento! Memento mori!" i.e. Dude, look behind you, you're just a guy, remember-you'll die.

—Supposedly the words a slave whispered to a returning Roman general during his triumphal return.
Cambridge classicist Mary Beard makes a strong case against the simplistic popular conception in her book "The Roman Triumph".
From Friends of Classics Reviews:

...Balancing the enemy captives and bringing up the rear of the triumphal procession were the victorious general’s troops, chanting the mysterious “io triumpe”.

Less mysterious were the rude chants that the triumphing troops were licensed to direct at their general. Suetonius gives us a sample of what Caesar’s troops contributed: “Romans, watch your wives, the bald adulterer’s back home. You fucked away in Gaul the gold you borrowed here in Rome”.

Traditionally these chants have been seen as “apotropaic”, designed to ward off envy and the evil eye in the moment when the successful general was most vulnerable. This is consistent with what is perhaps the best-known aspect of the traditional picture of the triumph, the slave who supposedly stood behind the general in his chariot to remind him that he was not a god, by repeating the words “Look behind. Remember that you are a man”. In the film Quo Vadis? the slave’s words receive an unintended comic twist when they are delivered to a triumphing Marcus Vinicius as he ogles a pretty girl in the crowd (nothing wrong with Marcus Vinicius!).

Beard points out that the slave and his cautionary words have been cobbled together out of bits and pieces of evidence from different contexts and periods and that no single text gives us the whole picture. She is similarly sceptical about the modern theory that the triumphing general impersonated the god Jupiter Best and Greatest, dressed in the clothes of his cult statue and with his face similarly painted red.

The impersonation of the god, the admonitory slave and the apotropaic songs all make a tempting package, but the evidence for the triumphator’s impersonation of Jupiter is very slender. What we can say is that Roman authors of the late Republic and early Empire were particularly concerned with the line between the human and the divine, and with the problematic concept of the divine human. Eventually, the emperor would be hailed as a god and receive divine honours, but this would be a slow and difficult process....

"Marc Andreessen Predicts 'Biggest Industry In The History Of The Planet'"

Mr. A. is enthusiastic. He's always enthusiastic.

From ZeroHedge, June 4: 

Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen predicts that humanoid robotics will become the most lucrative market in history, surpassing the internet’s economic impact. In an interview with Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale at a forum hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute, Andreessen urged the United States to lead the development of robot factories, positioning the nation to drive what he called the next Industrial Revolution.

You’ve likely seen Elon Musk’s Tesla Optimus robot,” Andreessen told the audience, referencing the humanoid robot being developed at Musk’s electric vehicle company. “These humanoid robots—this general-purpose robotics trend—will take off in the next decade, and it will happen at an enormous scale.”....

**

....Andreessen, co-founder of the tech investment firm Andreessen Horowitz (A16Z), envisioned a future with “billions, perhaps tens of billions” of robots performing tasks from industrial production to healthcare. “I think there’s a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest industry in the history of the planet,” he said. ARK Investment Management LLC’s Big Ideas 2025 report supports this vision, forecasting a transformative robotics industry that boosts productivity across sectors. It highlights specialized robots, such as household appliances, slashing time spent on daily tasks. The report projects generalizable robotics could generate over $26 trillion in global revenue, split evenly between $13 trillion in household robotics and $13 trillion in manufacturing robotics. 

The global Smart Robots Market is expected to grow from a valuation of USD 33.83 billion in 2024 to $135.83 billion by 2034, reflecting a robust CAGR of 26.5%, according to a new report by The Research Insights. Fueled by the integration of artificial intelligence and advanced sensor technologies, smart robots are expanding into diverse applications. Global demand for enhanced productivity and safety across organizations, coupled with the synergy of cognitive systems and sensor technology, is driving rapid adoption and propelling the market’s worldwide growth.

However, competition is intensifying. China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative aims to deploy millions of robots, while Japan and South Korea advance their own automation ecosystems.

We don’t need to bring back old manufacturing jobs,” Andreessen said, dismissing labor-intensive assembly lines. Instead, he championed what Musk calls “alien dreadnought factories”—highly automated, state-of-the-art facilities producing robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles at unprecedented scale.

Andreessen described a future of transformative economic growth, with thousands of new industrial categories emerging nationwide. “Coastal tech investments will yield massive returns, but we’ll create tens or hundreds of millions of jobs in rural areas,” he said, emphasizing advanced manufacturing’s potential to revitalize America’s heartland.

This shift, he argued, would enable the U.S. to lead the “third or fourth Industrial Revolution,” setting global standards for robotics and automation while fostering widespread prosperity.

“We shouldn’t be screwing screws by hand on rubber mats for 10 hours,” the billionaire said. “We should be designing and building the future.” Andreessen warned that if the U.S. fails to rapidly scale robot factories, China could seize the lead. “We have to do this because if we don’t, China will, and we don’t want to live in that world,” he said.

Last month, Musk declared that the company’s Optimus humanoid robot, now capable of learning tasks from human instructions, will be “the biggest product of all time.” Musk argued Tesla’s unique combination of AI, manufacturing scale, and robotics expertise positions it as the only company poised to produce intelligent humanoid robots at scale. “This is a super big deal,” he added, predicting Optimus’s impact could outstrip the next biggest product by a factor of ten....

....MUCH MORE 

As a board member and éminence grise of Facebook Mr. Andreessen was captain of the cheerleading squad pushing Zuckerberg's metaverse adventures:

"Meta’s $36 Billion Metaverse World Has Less Than 1000 Users" (META)

Possibly related:
Real Estate (Virtual): Metaverse Property Values Collapse 89% On Realization That "Virtual" "Real" Estate Is Gibberish and Stupid
The last time I looked Bankman-Fried's FTX auditors were still anchor tenants in their virtual building.... 

"Microsoft’s Own Metaverse Is Coming, and It Will Have PowerPoint" (also Excel!!!) (MSFT; EVIL)

 "Meanings of the metaverse: The Andreessen solution" 

EU Spends €387,000 (£332,500) For ‘Global Gateway’ Metaverse, Throws Gala Party For ‘Global Gateway’ Metaverse—6 People Show Up
The metaverse may not be the opportunity that Marc Andreessen has pitched it as....

Andreessen Horowitz-Backed Mecha Fight Club, An NFT Robot Cockfighting Game, Put On Ice As Maker Pivots To AI    

"Facebook and the CIA (FB; META)"

"Marc Andreessen Has a Pretty Creepy Relationship With Zuck" (FB)

See also:
Nov. 29, 2016
Marc Andreessen Speaks: "Flying cars are closer than you think"
And speaks, and speaks...
You know how he is....

May, 2015 
Marc Andreessen In the New Yorker:
13,000+ words.
Oct. 2014 
New York Magazine's Million Word Interview With Mark Andreessen
It's not really a million words but man-o-mandingo the guy likes to talk. 

So, a grain of salt, at minimum. 

"A $500 billion wall of money will lift the stock market in the second half, says JPMorgan"

I'm not sure I would attribute NVDA's $4 Trillion market cap to retail collectively deciding "Say, if we all pool our money..."

On the other hand the inflows are large enough—at the margin, which is where price change happens—to lift the broader market.

From MarketWatch, July 10: 

‘Boycotting’ of U.S. equities by foreign buyers won’t last 

Retail investors have been a driving force for markets this year.

https://images.mktw.net/im-81343447?width=700&size=1.6666666666666667&pixel_ratio=1.5

Cumulative net buying by retail investors this year has surpassed previous records.

That cohort is going to keep driving the market higher, says our call of the day from JPMorgan, which predicts that retail investors will lead a $500 billion wall of money flowing into U.S. stocks in the latter half of this year, driving gains of up to 10%.

A team of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimate $360 billion of retail equity fund buying is left to come this year from an expected $630 billion total. 

Those investors took profits in May and June after they heavily bought the dip in March and April.

In other words, the pause in retail buying this year has been about cashing in on gains following a V-shaped recovery for U.S. stocks, rather than a behavioral shift. “Instead, we believe that retail investors will resume their equity buying and start propagating the equity market from July onward,” they said.

As for other potential buyers, the strategists said hedge funds built up more bullish exposure after reducing risk earlier in the year, and are unlikely to buy much more. Equity funds using computerized or quantitative models to take positions in individual stocks, reduced some exposure in May and June and could increase that later in the year, said JPMorgan....

....MUCH MORE 

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Flashpoint: "China Warns US, SE Asia: We’ll Hit Back on Supply Chain Deals"

This is directed at Vietnam but countries like Thailand have also been put on notice by their norther neighbor.

From Asia Financial, July 8:

Beijing warns it will retaliate against nations that strike deals with the US that cut China out of supply chains. It also urged the US not to restore tariffs on its goods next month 

Concern is rising in Beijing about the Trump Administration’s tariff deals, both with China and its neighbours in Southeast Asia.

China is particularly worried about aspects of the framework deal the US signed with Vietnam that would impose a 40% tariff on Chinese goods shipped to the US via ports in Hanoi, which could face a 40% tariff from next month.

Beijing threatened on Tuesday to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the United States to cut China out of supply chains. It also warned the US not to escalate trade tensions by restoring tariffs on its goods next month.

Washington and Beijing agreed to a trade framework in June that restored a fragile truce, but with many details still unclear, traders and investors on both sides of the Pacific are watching to see if it will unravel or lead to a lasting detente.

On Monday, President Donald Trump began notifying trade partners of sharply higher US tariffs from August 1, after he delayed all but 10% of his April duties on most countries to give them time to strike deals with the world’s largest economy.

China, initially singled out with tariffs exceeding 100%, has until August 12 to reach an agreement with the White House to keep Trump from reinstating additional import curbs imposed during tit-for-tat tariff exchanges in April and May.

Call for dialogue 
“One conclusion is abundantly clear: dialogue and cooperation are the only correct path,” the official People’s Daily said in a commentary, referring to the exchanges in the current round of China-US trade tension.

The article was signed “Zhong Sheng”, or “Voice of China”, a term the paper uses to express views on foreign policy....

....MUCH MORE 

Some other stories that point to what the points of contention are: 

CNBC, July 3 -  What the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal tells us about the future of tariffs

...Under the agreement, the U.S. will apply a 20% duty on Vietnamese imports — sharply below the 46% rate Trump had imposed in early April. U.S. imports to Vietnam will meanwhile not be subject to tariffs.

Trump also said that Vietnam had agreed to a 40% duty on any products that originally came from another country, but were sent to Vietnam for final shipment to the U.S. China has reportedly repeatedly relied on this practice, known as transshipping, to avoid trade barriers....

 Reuters BreakingViews July 3 - US-Vietnam tariffs bode ill or worse for China

The Guardian, July 6 - Is Trump tariff deal really a win for Vietnam – or a way of punishing China? 

MoneyControl, July 8 - Trump’s Vietnam tariff deal signals Asia’s vulnerability to US-China rivalry

South China Sea Flashpoint: Vietnam In The Spratleys

From Pekingology, July 1: 

Vietnam's Massive Reclamation in the Spratly Islands
Satellite photos from South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI) show Vietnam’s expansion and militarization of Spratly features. 

The following article was first published yesterday Monday, June 30 by the South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI), which describes itself as “an international research network and not affiliated with any institution, mainly funded by social donation and non-profit investment.” It is s perhaps the only China-based thinktank publicly and routinely utilizing satellite maps to deliver observations and analysis.

Its director is Hu Bo, research professor & director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies, Peking University.

The article includes multiple satellite photos to illusrate recent island-building by Vietnam in the South China Sea, which a Hawaii-based professor opined in Nikkei Asia last year that “Vietnam's land reclamation helps balance power in South China Sea” and “Hanoi's strategic moves offer hope against China's aggressive island building”....

....MUCH MORE 

"Microsoft Stock Spikes To Record High On AI Outlook" (MSFT)

Ah, Mister Softee, we meet again. 

The stock closed at $503.51 after earlier setting the ATH at $506.78. Currently trading down sixty cents in early after-hours action.

From Investor's Business Daily, July 9: 

Microsoft (MSFT) stock on Wednesday rose to a record high after a Wall Street analyst turned positive on the software giant based on its artificial intelligence business.

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz upgraded Microsoft stock to outperform, or buy, from perform, or neutral. He also set a price target of 600 on the stock.

In afternoon trades on the stock market today, Microsoft stock advanced nearly 1% to 501.27. Earlier in the session, it hit an all-time high of 506.78.

Investor attention to Microsoft's AI revenue stream is increasing as its Azure cloud infrastructure business remains strong, Schwartz said in a client note.

Microsoft is positioned as "one of the long-term AI winners in software," he said. In addition to Azure, Microsoft offers Copilot AI assistants for its software applications.

"In our view, investors are underestimating the potential for Microsoft's AI business to drive durable consumption growth for Azure and scale fast in the agentic AI era," Schwartz said....

....MORE 

Getting a bit of that 1999 vibe:

"I was dreaming when I wrote this, forgive me if it goes astray..."

Giving me a chance to reprise an oldie but goodie:
 
On Friday March 10,2000 the Nasdaq closed at 5048.62, it's all-time high.
On the following Monday the Naz was down 141 points. Tuesday, 200.
The index had begun a 30-month decline to it's September 24, 2002 intra-day low of 1,169.04,
down 77%.

This became one of my favorite songs:

The Day the NASDAQ Died
Humble Pie (sung to the tune of American Pie)

A long, long week ago
I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.
But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt
I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died 
 
So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July 

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
Q COM at 150 or above?
'Cos your plumber told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? 

Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found
I never worried on the whole way up
Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died 

I started singin'
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July 

Now for ten days, we've been on our own
And E-trade won't pick up the phone
But that's not how it used to be
When investors snapped up EMC
With cash they borrowed easily
And a quote that flashed up permanently green
Oh, and just as things were turning 'round
Joel Klein slapped Mister Softee down
The courtroom was adjourned
A guilty verdict was returned
And while Gilder read a book on quarks
Buffet smirked and Greenspan barked
The bulls were eaten by the sharks
The day, the NASDAQ died 

I started singin' ...
Manic panic, it's just like the Titanic
Unsinkable and now under the Atlantic
We're at four thou and falling fast
All at once the bottom-fishers pounced
But that just caused a dead-cat bounce
'Cos Mister Softee, from the sidelines, preannounced
Now the graph-lines showed complete collapse
While the margin calls were coming fast
We all were forced to sell
Our Apple, E-Bay and Intel
Then the bear funds moved to take the field
And the long bond shed a point of yield
Was Glass-Steagall ever really repealed?
The day, the NASDAQ day 

We started singing...
Oh, and suddenly we're underwater
Millionaires all hot and bothered
With no cash left to buy again
So come on, Fed be anxious, com-pen-sate
By lowering the discount rate
'Cause easy money is a bubble's only friend
Oh, and as I watched the index fall
I received the dreaded margin call
No broker born in hell
Could make me want to sell
But as my gains fell fast into the crash
E-Trade began demanding cash
The talking heads were talking trash
The day, the NASDAQ died 

They were singing...
I met an analyst for Micromuse
I asked him for their earnings news
But he just smiled and turned away
I logged on to the trading floor
Where I made my fortune weeks before
But they demanded to see cash before I played
And on T.V. the ticker streamed
Kudlow cried and Barton dreamed
Not a bullish word was spoken
The daytraders were choking
And the three stocks I acquired last
AMAT, Dell and Infocast
Couldn't catch a bid and faded fast
The day, the NASDAQ died 

And they were singing....
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July
-Brady/Kearny
Thanks to iTulip for giving it eternal cyber-life.

"Salesforce Pauses Hiring Engineers and Lawyers Due to A.I., Says CEO Marc Benioff" (CRM)

From Observer, July 8:

Salesforce will "look a lot different" by the end of the year compared to the start, according to Benioff. 

For a glimpse into how A.I. is transforming company workforces, consider Salesforce. The software giant has embraced the technology internally, allowing it to pause hiring for roles like customer service agents, engineers and even lawyers, according to CEO Marc Benioff. “We’re able to reshape our company,” Benioff said today (July 8) at the AI for Good Summit in Geneva, Switzerland. “By the end of the year, it’ll look a lot different than it did at the beginning.” 

The hiring pause isn’t permanent, though. “We’re saying, wait a minute and let the A.I. productivity really take hold,” Benioff explained, adding that Salesforce’s hiring trends will likely shift again as the technology rolls out across departments. 

Yet while A.I. is slowing some areas of hiring, it’s accelerating others. Salesforce is currently onboarding thousands of new sales employees to push its growing suite of A.I. products. That pivot began earlier this year, when the company cut 1,000 jobs in February, in part to make room for A.I.-focused sales hires.

In addition to its 75,000-person human workforce, Salesforce now employs around 9,000 A.I. agents serving as customer service reps....

....MUCH MORE 

"Fyre Festival is for sale on eBay"

From The Fader, July 9:

The beleaguered brand is up for auction after a private sale collapsed. 

Disgraced entrepreneur Billy McFarland has put his Fyre Festival brand for sale on eBay. The auction, announced by McFarland on July 8, came after the dissolution of a seven-figure deal for Fyre Festival IP and trademarks. See the listing here — it's currently sitting at just over $200,000. 

The successful bidder will win a package that includes the brand name, registered trademarks and intellectual property, website domains, and email lists. "Access to the core team" is listed as "optional," so if you're a paid employee at Fyre, uh, better start updating that resume. The bid covers carve-outs for the upcoming Fyre Festival musical, Fyre streaming platform, and TV platform, all previously announced by separate independent developers.

In a video posted to Instagram (and flagged by Stereogum) McFarland said that after "over 1,000" offers for the Fyre brand, he's "done playing games." "Whoever owns the Fyre brand will have an attention engine to launch festivals, do merch collabs, do insane popups, run livestreams, or do a media brand," he says....

....MORE 

Most recently: 

April 24 -  Now It Can Be Yours: Fyre Festival Brand And Other Intellectual Property For Sale

Billy McFarland issues major update on Fyre Festival 2 after sparking outrage over $1,000,000 ticket prices...

SEC Commissioner Peirce: "Enchanting, but Not Magical: A Statement on the Tokenization of Securities"

From the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, July 9:

Blockchain technology has unlocked novel models for distributing and trading securities in a “tokenized” format. Tokenization may facilitate capital formation and enhance investors’ ability to use their assets as collateral. Enchanted by these possibilities, new entrants and many traditional firms are embracing onchain products. As powerful as blockchain technology is, it does not have magical abilities to transform the nature of the underlying asset. Tokenized securities are still securities. Accordingly, market participants must consider—and adhere to—the federal securities laws when transacting in these instruments.

Sometimes an issuer tokenizes its own security. For example, an operating company or an investment company could tokenize its shares. Alternatively, an unaffiliated third party with custody of securities issued by another entity might, for instance, issue a new tokenized security tied to the securities it holds or may tokenize the “security entitlements” that investors hold against the custodian. Purchasers of these third-party tokens may face unique risks, such as counterparty risks.

Distributors of tokenized securities must consider their disclosure obligations under the federal securities laws and may wish to refer to the Division of Corporation Finance’s recent staff statement on this topic.[1]

Market participants who distribute, purchase, and trade tokenized securities also should consider the nature of these securities and the resulting securities laws implications. For example, depending on the particular facts and circumstances, a token could be a “receipt for a security,” which is itself a security but is distinct from the underlying security held by the distributor of the token. Alternatively, a token that does not provide the holder with legal and beneficial ownership of the underlying security could be a “security-based swap” that cannot be traded off exchange by retail persons. While blockchain-based tokenization is new, the process of issuing an instrument representing a security is not. The same legal requirements apply to on- and off-chain versions of these instruments....

....MORE 

The last time we visited Commissioner Peirce, June 16's "U.S. SEC: "Remarks by Commissioner Peirce at the Third Annual Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management", I described her as:

Commissioner Peirce is a bit of a wild child and more willing than most commissioners, past and present, to experiment in the areas of market structure and securities regulation.

Here she addresses the Investment Company Act of 1940...

Related, earlier today:

"Robinhood faces regulatory scrutiny over tokenized private company stock" (HOOD) 

MIT, Siemens, GE Vernova To Collaborate On Manufacturing Technologies

From Manufacturing Dive, June 30:

U.S. manufacturing is in ‘pretty bad shape.’ MIT hopes to change that.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Initiative for New Manufacturing is partnering with Siemens, GE Vernova and others to boost productivity through technology and innovation.

U.S. manufacturing is in a rebuilding phase. Following decades of productivity slowdowns fueled by labor declines and globalization, companies are leveraging artificial intelligence and automation to fill in the gaps and attract the next generation of workers.

However, the vast majority of manufacturers in the small to medium-sized tier are struggling to evolve, according to academics. In Cleveland, Ohio, for example, metalworkers today are still using the same milling machines used in the 1940s, said Suzanne Berger, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-director of the university’s Initiative for New Manufacturing.

There are no robots. There are no 3D printers. Instead, metal fabricators are looking for people who can operate the equipment they have at a wage of $13 per hour, Berger said — “unless an Amazon warehouse down the street opens up, then [they’ll] have to pay $15 an hour.”

Over the past 20 years, Berger, alongside her colleagues and students, have traveled to factories around the world, interviewing manufacturers about their operations and workforces, and found that U.S. companies are not as technologically competitive as hoped, but rather stuck in a “low-end trap.”

“We have low tech, low skill, low wages, low productivity, and you can’t really fix any one of these pieces without trying to really pull this ‘knot’ apart,” she said. “And, the question is, how do we do that?”

Recently, MIT launched its Initiative for New Manufacturing, an institute-wide effort to reinfuse U.S. industrial production with the latest technologies to bolster economic sectors and ignite job creation.

Through a mix of research, hands-on training and collaboration with corporate partners, the Cambridge, Massachusetts, university plans to build the tools and talent to shape a more productive and sustainable future for manufacturing.

“We want to work with firms big and small … in cities, and small towns, and everywhere in between … to help them adopt new approaches for increased productivity,” MIT President Sally Kornbluth said during a May 7 speech about the initiative.

The first seven consortium member companies involved with the initiative are Amgen, Autodesk, Flex, GE Vernova, PTC, Sanofi and Siemens. They will initially support seed projects related to AI in manufacturing, with plans to expand into other topics, according to a news release. Each company has agreed to provide $1.5 million over a three-year period as part of the initiative, an MIT spokesperson said....

....MUCH MORE

Interesting that GEV and Siemens are collaborating in that GE Vernova is the largest steam (electricity generation) turbine manufacturer in the world and Siemens is either #2 or #3, depending on who is counting.  

June 30 - Electricity Generation: "US gas-fired turbine wait times as much as seven years; costs up sharply" (GEV)

As noted introducing June 15's "Electricity: "Report Says 130 New Gas-Fired Power Projects Proposed in Texas" (GEV)":

If all these proposals go forward GE Vernova would probably have to buy Siemens' gas turbine business just to keep the backlog to fifteen years or less. 

For what it's worth GE Vernova's stock hit an all-time high this morning ($545.63) and has more than tripled since it was spun out of General Electric. $541.26 last, up $11.26 (+2.12%)

"The 'new normal' of growth stock dominance"

What our five years of blather regarding advantage flywheels is all about.* 

From Yahoo Finance, July 8:

It pays to be big. And it's a good time to be on team growth.

A key insight from recent years — from the pandemic crisis through the "Liberation Day" turmoil — is that the most well-capitalized and growth-oriented names are outperforming their counterparts.

Investors who tend to favor small-cap and value stocks, because of their time horizon, risk appetite, or other preferences, might point to earlier periods of trading to show the merits of their strategy.

Last year notably featured glimmers of a small-cap revival.

A broadening of the stock market rally, optimistic economic forecasts, and expectations of Fed rate cuts bolstered the case for the double-A and triple-A tickers that don't always get the major league limelight.

But the call for small caps turned out to be short-lived, ill-suited for the trade conflicts of 2025 and the wait-and-see posturing of the central bank.

In fact, the performance gap between US large and small caps has widened considerably over the last two-and-a-half years, according to a new analysis by DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, who wrote in a recent note to clients that the duration of the relative outperformance suggests it's structural rather than cyclical.

"Relative return data suggests that there is a 'new normal' at play in US stock markets, one where large caps and Growth have the upper hand versus small caps and Value," he wrote. "Moreover, enough time has passed that these differences look durable rather than being temporary anomalies."

Big Tech's steadfast march to higher valuations has played a major role in the stock market's lopsided behavior.

But the growth of the Magnificent Seven is only part of the story....
*** 
...While a broadening rally hasn't unfolded in the way small-cap proponents had hoped, the spoils of AI excitement have flowed to many other players aside from the mega-rich tech platforms. As my colleague Josh Schafer has reported in this newsletter, AI chip and data center trades not named Nvidia (NVDA) have posted some of the highest gains in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Investments in AI energy and cloud tickers have payed off too....

This is a corollary of the basic framework for understanding businesses and investing that we've been pitching for the last six or seven years.

If interested see:

Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech" 

...Much more important than the direct monetization of big data is the strategic advantage it can bestow over time.
In a winner-take-all economy, as in a horse race, small differences in superiority are rewarded all out of proportion to the actual advantage. A top thoroughbred may only be a couple fifths of a second faster than the field but those two lengths over the course of a season can mean triple the earnings for #1 vs. #2.
In commerce the results can be even more dramatic because rather than the 60%/20%/10% purse structure of the racetrack the winning vendor will often get 100% of a customer's business.....

Competitive Advantage and Feedback Loops

How to Think About Companies: 'Advantage Flywheels'
A very handy conceptual framework first posted after the start of the U.S. lockdowns, April 2020. Schools were closed so it seemed natural to link to a superb mini-MBA module.
Eat your heat out HBR....
****  
....As artificial intelligence comes more and more to the fore, the advantages accruing to those companies that can afford to make use of their data and custom train the machines will act as advantage flywheels that shift the distribution of profits from the normal Pareto: 80% of the loot goes to the top 20% of businesses to perhaps as much as 95% of all the profits going to the top 5% of businesses.
I didn't really mean the "eat your heart out HBR" line.

Here's the Harvard Business Review on this very point:
HBR—From Pareto To Hyper-Pareto: "AI Is Going to Change the 80/20 Rule"

Flywheel Effect: Why Positive Feedback Loops are a Meta-Competitive Advantage

"Analyzing the deepening divide in learning capabilities between a few corporate giants and the rest of the world." (plus advantage flywheels)

"America's Biggest Firms' Moat Is Becoming Impregnable" (TSLA; NVDA; GOOG)
The announcement at the end of August that Tesla was going live with their supercomputer — Elon Got Himself A Supercomputer: "Tesla's $300 Million AI Cluster Is Going Live Today" (TSLA)—reminded me of this piece at ZeroHedge, last month. We'll be back with more on Morgan Stanley's Tesla note later today but for now the TL;dr is "To the victor go the spoils" or "The rich get richer" or "Those who can afford a supercomputer will get closer to discovering the profitability (if any) of AI than those who can't afford a supercomputer."
In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)

The advantage flywheels keep spinning and reinforcing each other to the point that the Pareto distribution of profits - 20% of companies reap 80% of the profits - is becoming Super-Pareto where 5% of the companies reap 95% of the profits and is approaching Hyper-Pareto at maybe 2% of companies reaping 98% of profits.

It all comes down to having the resources to keep up. 

I watched Mr. Huang give the keynote and it's all a bit much to digest before firing out comments that would make any sense at all so here are some of today's headlines to give a taste of what the intro paragraph is based on.

These are Nvidia's press releases via GlobeNewswire....

"Elon Musk says any company that isn’t spending $10 billion on AI this year like Tesla won’t be able to compete" (TSLA)

This.

This is such an important concept to grasp. It's the advantage flywheels, the rich get richer, winner-take-all reality of business in 2024....

The Hyper-Pareto Distribution Of Profits Is Happening Right Now (plus an anniversary)
It's not some cutesy management* fad or pop insight like "Business secrets of Genghis Khan."

To the rich go the profits and internalizing that fact makes the rest of this portfolio construction/fund management/investing stuff easier to conceptualize and execute.

And AI is accelerating the already extant dynamic....
*****

*Although people had been observing and discussing "rich get richer" and "winner-take-all" dynamics for over a century, one of our favorite pointers toward the current situation did come out of a business school. We've been hammering on this for so long that I start to bore myself. Here's a recapitulation from last year, linking to an article that was published seven years ago today:

HBR—From Pareto To Hyper-Pareto: "AI Is Going to Change the 80/20 Rule"

A prescient article from the Harvard Business Review, February 28, 2017:....

*****

Just to reiterate, every incremental advantage that a company can afford does not affect income production in isolation. They accrete in sometimes unforeseeable combinations:

AI: Tesla Installing Second Dojo Supercomputer In New York Gigafactory (TSLA; NVDA)

AI: "Inside Tesla’s Innovative And Homegrown 'Dojo' AI Supercomputer" (TSLA)

It really is a big deal that a company can afford to spend over a billion dollars to build their own supercomputer and it really is a big deal that the same company has all the training data from the billions of miles of real-world driving and it really is a great example of the concept of advantage flywheels and hyper-pareto distribution of rewards, i.e. the rich get richer.

Whether it is going to open-up the $10 trillion addressable market and add the $500 billion of market cap that Morgan Stanley foresees is still an open question....

....As artificial intelligence comes more and more to the fore, the advantages accruing to those companies that can afford to make use of their data and custom train the machines will act as advantage flywheels that shift the distribution of profits from the normal Pareto: 80% of the loot goes to the top 20% of businesses to perhaps as much as 95% of all the profits going to the top 5% of businesses.

I didn't really mean the "eat your heart out HBR" line.

Here's the Harvard Business Review on this very point:
HBR—From Pareto To Hyper-Pareto: "AI Is Going to Change the 80/20 Rule"

And many more. If interested use the 'search blog' box, upper left.

"Robinhood faces regulatory scrutiny over tokenized private company stock" (HOOD)

From Ledger Insights, July 8:

Robinhood last week launched tokenized stock offerings to European retail investors, making more than 200 US listed companies available for trading. The platform also provided $1.5 million in token giveaways for unlisted companies OpenAI ($1 million) and SpaceX ($500,000), with trading available 24/5 including weekdays outside Nasdaq hours.

OpenAI quickly distanced itself from the offering. “We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it. Any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval—we did not approve any transfer. Please be careful,” the company posted on X.

The tokens are technically derivatives rather than actual stocks, though Robinhood says it holds the underlying securities in custody in the United States. While OpenAI and SpaceX are privately held, secondary market platforms like Forge allow accredited investors to trade their shares. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has promoted tokenization as giving retail investors access to AI stocks that would otherwise be unavailable to them.

Following OpenAI’s statement, Tenev responded that other private companies have approached Robinhood about offering similar tokens.

Regulatory questions emerge...

....MUCH MORE 

Most recently in the hood:

"Robinhood Debuts New Service to Deliver Cash to Your House, Because That Seems Good, Right?" (HOOD)

"Robinhood's CEO on the Plan to Tokenize Everything" (HOOD)

Nvidia On Track For Largest Market Capitalization....In History (NVDA)

From Barron's, July 9: 

Nvidia Stock Is Rising. It May Soon Be the Most Valuable Company Ever.

Nvidia has been on a tear lately—and that’s put the the chip maker on the cusp of breaking records.

Shares have jumped 40% over the past three months, rebounding as the broader market got over the worst of its tariff fears, even though CEO Jensen Huang warned in May that curbs on chip exports to China could dent sales by $15 billion. Investors are also hopeful that the surge in demand for artificial intelligence will carry on boosting the company’s earnings.

Nvidia stock was up 0.2% at $160.35 in Wednesday’s premarket. It’s within touching distance of two major milestones: If shares can finish the day at or above $160.46, Nvidia would pass the record $3.915 trillion closing market capitalization that Apple reached in late December, according to Dow Jones Market Data....

....MORE 

Following yesterday's +1.11% move to close at $160.00 the stock is up another 75 cents (+.47%) in pre-market trade.

What a long strange trip it's been.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 
NVIDIA: Don't Buy the Stock For The Autonomous Car Stuff (or virtual reality) NVDA; TSLA; IBM
The stock is up $2.21 (+2.64%) at $85.85. [divide by 40 to account for 4:1 and 10:1 splits. At this point it had already tripled from our first posts on the company]
Yesterday the usually very reliable Investor's Business Daily headlined a story "Nvidia Upgraded On Growth In Car, Cloud, Virtual Reality Fields". As we say in our standard intro to the stock:
Before we go any further, our NVIDIA boilerplate:  
We make very few calls on individual names on the blog but this one is special. 
They are positioned to be the brains in autonomous vehicles, they will drive virtual reality should it ever catch on, the current businesses include gaming graphics, deep learning/artificial intelligence, and supercharging the world's fastest supercomputers including what will be the world's fastest at Oak Ridge next year. 
Not just another pretty face.  
Or food delivery app.
That's me, quoting myself "NVIDIA Sets New All Time High On Pretty Good Numbers, "Sweeping Artificial Intelligence Adoption" (NVDA)"

That earlier (May 12, 2016) "pretty good numbers" post begins: 

We are fans.
Before we go any further, our NVIDIA boilerplate: we make very few calls on individual names on the blog but this one is special.

They are positioned to be the brains in autonomous vehicles, they will drive virtual reality should it ever catch on, the current businesses include gaming graphics, deep learning/artificial intelligence, and supercharging the world's fastest supercomputers including what will be the world's fastest at Oak Ridge next year.
Not just another pretty face.

Or food delivery app.

After hours the stock is changing hands at $38.31 up 7.70% which, if it holds through tomorrow's regular session, beats the old highs from 2007..... 

"Poland reinstates border controls with Germany and Lithuania to discourage asylum-seekers"

The headline is disingenuous. The border controls with Germany are a response to German police literally pushing illegal migrants into Poland.

From ABC News, July 7:

Poland reinstated border controls on Monday with neighboring Germany and Lithuania following similar German restrictions imposed earlier this year aimed at discouraging asylum-seekers.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose government recently survived a confidence vote in parliament, announced the restrictions last week. Pressure has been mounting after far-right groups in Poland have alleged Germany was transporting migrants into Polish territory after they reached Western Europe.

The reinstated controls, which began overnight Sunday, will last for an initial period of 30 days, though authorities have not ruled out extending them, according to the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration.

“Illegal migration is simply a crime,” Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said Sunday during a news conference.

The Polish border with Lithuania, which stretches 104 kilometers (65 miles), will see checks in 13 locations. Poland’s border with Germany, 467 kilometers (290 miles) long, will have controls at 52 crossing points....

....MUCH MORE 

Another of the responses: 

And at the Washington Post, July 5: 

Escalating German-Polish border dispute hampers Europe’s free movement 

What the Germans are doing is very similar to what Belarus did in 2021 - 2023:

 And many more.

"FBI launches criminal investigations of John Brennan, James Comey over Trump-Russia probe: report"

 From the New York Post, July 8:

Former CIA Director John Brennan and ex-FBI Director James Comey are being investigated for potential criminal conduct related to the 2016 Trump-Russia collusion probe. 

The criminal referral involving Brennan was passed to the FBI by current CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Justice Department sources told Fox News Digital

The investigation into the Obama-era spy chief involves allegations that he made false statements to Congress and is currently underway. 

It’s unclear if the FBI’s probe into Brennan, one of 51 intelligence officials who falsely suggested Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation, encompasses more than his alleged false testimony to lawmakers. 

Meanwhile, the specific nature of the potential criminal matter involving Comey is unclear but an investigation has been opened....

....MUCH MORE 

Related, July 6:

"Obama’s Trump-Russia collusion report was corrupt from start: CIA review"

A lot of the things that Brennan did have a five-year statute of limitations. 

Lying to Congress in 2023 about the inclusion of the Steele Dossier as a predicate in various reports would be one of his actions worth investigating but that is sort of like nailing Al Capone on tax charges. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

"Argentina's Economy Grows 7.6% In Q2 2025 As Shops And Building Sites Lead Recovery"

From the Rio Times via MENAFN, July 7:

Argentina's economy grew 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025, official data shows. This is the country's best performance in years, coming after a long crisis marked by high inflation and shrinking incomes.

The main drivers of this growth are a strong rebound in commerce and construction, both of which have responded quickly to new government policies. President Javier Milei's government took office in late 2023 and made big changes.

The administration cut government spending, ended the central bank 's money printing, and removed many rules that made business difficult. These steps helped restore confidence among investors and business owners.

Official figures show private investment jumped 22.7% this year, and construction activity is up sharply. Inflation, which was over 200% in 2023, has dropped fast. By May 2025, monthly inflation fell to 1.5%.

The peso has stabilized, and price rises are now more predictable, making it easier for businesses and families to plan. Trade numbers also show improvement. In May, Argentina had a trade surplus of $608 million, with exports at $7.1 billion and imports at $6.5 billion....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at La Derecha Diario:

Econométrica projects a 7.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter 

Related at the Guardian, November 8 2023:

Economists warn electing far-right Milei would spell ‘devastation’ for Argentina 
More than 100 economists including Thomas Piketty and Jayati Ghosh publish open letter ahead of country’s 19 November election