Thursday, December 12, 2024

PPI: Only The Dead Have Seen The End Of Inflation

Once again repurposing Santayana's pithy little aphorism: "Only the dead have seen the end of war."*

From Yahoo Finance, December 12:

Wholesale inflation jumps more than expected in November as price pressures remain sticky

Wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, adding to a string of sticky inflation prints.

Thursday's report from the Labor Department showed that its producer price index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see — rose 3% from the year prior, up from the 2.4% in October, and above the 2.6% increase economists had projected. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4% compared, to the 0.2% seen in October.

Excluding food and energy, "core" prices increased 3.4% year-over-year, above October's 3.1% increase. Economists had expected an increase of 3.2%. Meanwhile, month-over-month core prices increased 0.2%, in line with last month's rise and economist projections.

Thursday's PPI reading comes one day after the release of the November CPI index showed core inflation rose 3.3% for the fourth-straight month. The consumer price reading was largely in line with expectations, though and did little to shake investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week.

The sticky nature of the CPI print "is a little disconcerting," Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Wednesday. "But we don’t expect it to persuade the Fed to skip another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting."...

....MORE

And at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, december 12:

News Release

PPI for final demand rises 0.4% in November; goods increase 0.7%, services advance 0.2%

12/12/2024

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November. Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent. Prices for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November....

Detailed discussion

PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - NOVEMBER 2024 The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1 percent in November after rising 0.3 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.5 percent. 

Final Demand
Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 0.7 percent in November, the largest increase since rising 1.1 percent in February. Eighty percent of the broad-based advance in November can be traced to prices for final demand foods, which jumped 3.1 percent. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand energy both increased 0.2 percent. 

Product detail: A quarter of the November rise in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 54.6-percent jump in the index for chicken eggs. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, fresh fruits and melons, processed poultry, non-electronic cigarettes, and residential electric power also increased. In contrast, the index for oilseeds declined 4.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel and for primary basic organic chemicals also decreased. (See table 2.)....

....MUCH MORE (tables, discussion)

That 4/10% increase for the month annualizes out to 4.91%.
*"Only the dead have seen the end of war".
attributed to Plato from the 1930s on, especially following a speech by General Douglas MacArthur at West Point, 12 May 1962 crediting him, but not found in Plato's works; Santayana is the earliest known source
Soliloquies in England and Later Soliloquies (1922) ‘Tipperary’

Have we seen the inflation high-print for this decade? For this century?