Thursday, April 4, 2024

"Will Italy replace Germany as Europe's economic powerhouse?"

 We don't do question marks in our own headlines. the thinking is: If you are observing or proposing something, out with it. Weaseling around just wastes time. Plus Betteridge's law of headlines.

So here are the miscreants, Deutsche-Welle who should probably be forgiven as they are reporting, April 3, 2024, something that was inconceivable to the German mind just five years ago. 

While Germany's economy is stalling, Italy is experiencing continued growth. The post-pandemic economic resurgence has little to do with PM Giorgia Meloni's economic policies and everything with subsidies and new debt.

Mauro Congedo has been finding and renovating small architectural treasures with his brother and father for 25 years in Salento — a peninsula in the southeast of Italy that makes up the "heel" of the boot-shaped country.

The apartments and houses that Congedo restores in this rather remote region are now suddenly finding buyers from Germany and England.

"Things are going well again," said the 50-year-old architect.

During the coronavirus pandemic, business almost came to a standstill. But what happened afterward in Italy's industry was "crazy" he says, dragging out the "a" for a long time.

Congedo isn't the only one enthusiastic about the economic recovery in Italy.

Italy goes from problem child to head of the class
While governments in Rome were used to announcing depressing growth forecasts and poor debt rankings in the years before the pandemic, the country is now quickly becoming Europe's growth engine.

In the last quarter, the Italian economy grew by 0.6%, while the German economy shrunk by 0.3% in the same period. Beyond this short three-month snapshot, other figures for Europe's third-largest economy are impressive, too.

"The Italian economy has grown by 3.8% since 2019," Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, told DW. That is "twice as much as the French economy and five times more than the German economy." 

In Germany, the prospects are indeed looking bleak. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts growth of 0.3% this year for Germany. Leading German experts are only expecting growth of 0.1%. Italy's economy, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, according to the OECD.

The Italian stock market is also benefiting from the optimistic mood. The FTSE MIB benchmark index, which is made up of 40 big companies, rose by around 28% last year, more than any other European stock market indices. And  Italy is on track for more growth.

Italy's growth based primarily on new debt
It didn't always look so encouraging. Economists initially reacted very cautiously when Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in October 2022. During the election campaign, Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party announced a nationalist "Made in Italy" economic course, agitated against migrants and did not clearly distance themselves from Russia.

After her election, the German weekly Stern described Meloni as the "most dangerous woman in Europe."....

....MUCH MORE