Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Electric Vehicles: "Are EVs the future or merely a niche market?"

Will Tesla hook up with Stellantis to become the next hybrid challenger? 

Will I finally be able to quit the necessity of reminding myself that Stellantis' symbol, STLA is not a palindrome of Tesla's symbol, TSLA?

From Asia Times, April 16:

EVs may not be as transformative as previously predicted as US consumer concerns rise about reliability and convenience 

The automotive industry is in a most difficult period of its history. How can it predict the future?

Technological marvels enabled by digital electronics have periodically emerged as new consumer products and services. And what is most remarkable is how quickly they have become accepted as necessities.

Consider in the past few decades color television, personal computers, flat panel displays, wireless communications, digital photography and image storage, LED light sources, email and internet-based services.

In each case, it took a few years for these innovations to go from start-up to widespread adoption where history is quickly forgotten. Who remembers 35mm film cameras, light bulbs or TV receivers with cathode ray tubes? Or 78rpm records?

A world where such profound innovations become quickly accepted as normal also leads to the anticipation of new markets created by innovations and further anticipation that such markets will be rapidly accepted to the point of creating major new industries.

Betting on such future markets calls for massive amounts of capital and consequent opportunities for great profit—or loss if the market size developments do not meet expectations. The automobile industry now faces this investment challenge....