Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Hurricane Watch: CSU Forecasts Not Just More Hurricanes But More Landfalling Hurricanes This Season

One of the saving graces of last season was that a couple of strong storms got trapped by the steering winds and ended up meandering around the North Atlantic before heading off the Iceland or Ireland.*

From Colorado State University via Artemis, April 4:

CSU forecasts well-above average major hurricane landfall probability for 2024 season

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach have issued their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, estimating that 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes will be seen, while landfall probabilities are also forecast to be elevated.

Released just minutes ago, the Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team is the latest to call for a particularly busy hurricane season in 2024.

Phil Klotzbach said in announcing the forecast that it anticipates a “very active hurricane season.”

The forecast from CSU calls for 23 named tropical storms to form in the Atlantic during the season from June 1st to November 30th.

11 of those named storms are forecast as likely to become hurricanes, with 5 of those forecast to become major hurricanes with Category 3 sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

In addition, the CSU team forecasts that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the 2024 hurricane season will reach 210.

Perhaps more pertinent to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) community, the CSU forecast team calls for an ACE Index score of 125 to the west of 60 degrees longitude, so closer to the United States coast and Gulf of Mexico.

They explain, “ACE generated west of 60 degrees west correlates better with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin than basin-wide ACE, since virtually all hurricane-prone landmasses in the Atlantic Ocean are located west of 60 degrees west.

“Generally, a slightly lower percentage of basinwide ACE occurs west of 60 degrees west in El Niño years relative to La Niña years. Since the team anticipates La Niña as the most likely outcome in 2024, the percentage of basinwide ACE occurring west of 60 degrees west is predicted to be higher than last year.”

In total, there are forecast to be 115 days with named storms in the water, 45 days with hurricanes and 13 days with major hurricanes over the course of the coming season.

Describing the meteorological conditions, the CSU team states, “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions....

In July 2023 we had Hurricane Watch: ...DON LOSING ORGANIZATION... Now, Depression wherein I got so bored I began regaling long-suffering reader with:

Don is a lost boy.

Hurricane Watch: Subtropical Storm Don
From the National Hurricane Center, July 15, the cone of uncertainty:...

...Don may have been drinking.
Speaking of drinking, I once had a very learned gentleman tell me there are four types of drunks.
His categories were:


Don is at present somewhere between two and three

Followed by: Hurricane Watch: Don Makes A Feint Toward Newfoundland, Sets Sights On (checks map) Iceland

And in August: Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast To Become A Hurricane By The Weekend - Not That Anyone Cares....