Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Capital Markets: "Dollar Consolidates Softer Ahead of Tomorrow's CPI"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The dollar is trading with a softer bias in mostly narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. It did not rally much ahead of the US jobs data, and it was not able to sustain the upside momentum afterwards, despite the jump in US yields. For St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who still has a strong reputation in the market, told Bloomberg TV yesterday that three cuts were his base case this year. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the strongest today, up about 0.25%-0.33%. The dollar continues to hold below JPY152 barely. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer today. The dollar continues to trade just inside its band against the onshore yuan. 

Most of the large Asia Pacific equity markets rallied, led by a 1.85% gain in Taiwan and a 1.1% advance by the Nikkei. South Korea was a notable exception and the won traded lower too. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trading a little heavier after gaining almost 0.5% yesterday. US index futures are slightly firmer. Benchmark 10-year yield are 3-4 bp lower in Europe, and the 10-year US Treasury is off three basis points to about 4.39%. The year's high was set yesterday closer to 4.46%. Gold continues to march higher. A new record was reached today, a little more than $2365.35. In the last 11 sessions coming into today, gold has fallen once. It is up more than 1% today, which if sustained would be the fourth such gain in eight sessions. After recovering strongly from around $84.70 yesterday to settle near $86.60, May WTI has struggled to sustain the upside momentum and stalled near $87 today and is consolidating ahead of the North American session....

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