Wednesday, December 27, 2023

A Bottom In Chinese Equities

Granted, not as historic as Izabella Kaminska calling the end of the 1094 year decline of the £ but you work with what you got. For more on the pound sterling call see: Capital Markets: I Hate Izabella Kaminska Edition, below. 

First up, from TradingView the last year of the Shanghai - Shenzhen CSI 300 index:

TradingView Chart

The closing low was 3297.50 on December 19 while the intra-day low was set the next day, December 20th at 3283.99 before reversing and closing in the green on that day at 3330.87.

And the impetus for the buying? It  looks like traders believe the latest moves by the Chinese government are going to achieve something. From Asia Financial, December 23:

China Identifies Disaster Relief Projects in $140bn Spending Plan

The National Development and Reform Commission said on Saturday it had identified thousands of flood control and disaster relief projects under a $140bn plan to boost the economy

A second batch of public investment projects has been earmarked by China’s top planning body under a plan to boost the economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan (close to $79 billion).

The projects include flood control and disaster relief programmes under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

 With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy....

....MUCH MORE

This morning, Dec. 27, ZeroHedge has a headline:

Iron Ore Futs Hit Ten-Month High On Chinese Stimulus Efforts

Over this story:

Iron ore futures hit a ten-month high on Monday, riding a wave of optimism from Chinese policymakers who rolled out new a fiscal stimulus package coupled with interest rate cuts at major state-owned banks. This move by Beijing is set to cushion the struggling property market.

Iron ore futures in Singapore soared to the highest intra-day level since late February, around $140 per ton. Prices have soared 40% since early August. 

Today the CSI 300 is trading up 62.04 (+1.86%) at 3,398.40.

And Ms Kaminska?
April 6, 2023
And yes, she did it the month the pound bottomed.*

And yes, the pound is the best performing G10 currency this year.

Insufferable woman.
*****
*That wasn't just any old bottom. That month, September 2022 the British pound touched the lowest level in its history, 1.0384 dollars to buy a pound. As noted in this September 26, 2022 post: "What The Hell Is Going On In Britain? Izabella Kaminska Has Some Thoughts": 

 From The Blind Spot, September 26:

Spot Markets Live Transcript: 26/09/22

*****

"I don’t know about you but it feels like there’s something very paradigm-shifting going on."

***** 

....MUCH MORE

Remember: a paradigm is 20 cents.

Also remember: a pair of dimes used to be worth a lot less vs the pound:
**928: Athelstan, the first King of England adopted sterling as the first national currency. He set up mints around the country to supply the growing nation.
One pound could buy you 15 cows.

1717: Great Britain defined sterling's value in terms of gold rather than silver for the first time.

Sir Isaac Newton, as Master of the Mint, set the gold price of £4.25 per fine ounce that lasted two hundred years, except during the Napoleonic wars when gold cash payments were suspended.

1925: £1 equivalent to $4.86. 

1949: Exchequer announces formal 30% devaluation, $4.03 to $2.80.

1964/65: [sterling crisis, cap in hand to the BIS and IMF]

1967: Formal devaluation, $2.80 to $2.40

“It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

Prime Minister Harold Wilson, 1967

Sources:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/a-short-history-of-the-british-pound/

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/articles/1325/the-200-year-pound-to-dollar-exchange-rate-history-from-5-in-1800s-to-todays.html

1.06583 last. 

On the bovine standard 1 GBP = 1 MCD regular hamburger.

Down from 15 cows  
Which, on October 2nd, was followed by "Does King Henry I's Order of 1125 Apply To The BoE and Treasury As Well As To The Royal Mint?":
"All the moneyers who were in England should be mutilated"
This was the order given by King Henry I in 1125. Specifically, they should each "lose their right hand and be castrated....

I don't think Ms Kaminska was that angry.

1.2476, last. It was the reversal of an almost 1100 year downtrend. (928 AD - 2022 AD)

So a good call. But where was she when we got crosswise to the the Denarius/Shekel pair in A.D. 70?
As we were running those damn "Here at Masada Securities we consider ourselves a fortress of strength in these uncertain times...." adverts.
 
As I type a pound will cost you $1.2817.