Thursday, April 6, 2023

Capital Markets: I Hate Izabella Kaminska Edition

And yes, she did it the month the pound bottomed.*

And yes, the pound is the best performing G10 currency this year.

Insufferable woman.

From Marc to Market:

Fragile Calm Casts a Pall over the Capital Markets 

Overview: There is a fragile calm in the capital markets today ahead of the long holiday weekend for many. The poor US economic data yesterday and third consecutive decline in the KBW bank index weighed on risk sentiment. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, with Hong Kong and India notable exceptions. In Japan, the Topix bank index fell 1.1% after a 1.9% decline yesterday and is now lower on the week. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a three-day fall and is up around 0.25% in late morning turnover. The Stoxx 600 bank index is up 1%, recouping yesterday's loss (~0.6%) in full. If sustained, it would be the seventh advance in the past nine sessions. US futures are trading with a slightly softer bias. Benchmark 10-year yields are softer, 1-3 bp in Europe and around two in the US, leaving the 10-year Treasury a little below 3.30%. 

The dollar is mostly firmer but is consolidating for the most part in narrow ranges. The New Zealand dollar, which struggled yesterday to sustain gains after the initial reaction to the 50 bp surprise hike, is the weakest of the G10 currencies today, off around 0.55%. The Australian dollar is next, off about a third of one percent. The Swiss franc and sterling are the best performers and are little changed. Most emerging market currencies are heavier today. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is extending its losses for the fifth consecutive session. Gold spiked to $2032 yesterday and little changed today. It is holding above $2008. May crude gapped higher on Monday in response to OPEC+ unexpected cut in output. It has been trading sideways, within Monday's range (~$79.00-$81.70).... 

 *That wasn't just any old bottom. That month, September 2022 the British pound touched the lowest level in its history, 1.0384 dollars to buy a pound. As noted in this September 26, 2022 post: "What The Hell Is Going On In Britain? Izabella Kaminska Has Some Thoughts": 

 From The Blind Spot, September 26:

Spot Markets Live Transcript: 26/09/22

*****

"I don’t know about you but it feels like there’s something very paradigm-shifting going on."

***** 

....MUCH MORE

Remember: a paradigm is 20 cents.

Also remember: a pair of dimes used to be worth a lot less vs the pound:
**928: Athelstan, the first King of England adopted sterling as the first national currency. He set up mints around the country to supply the growing nation.
One pound could buy you 15 cows.

1717: The United Kingdom defined sterling's value in terms of gold rather than silver for the first time.

Sir Isaac Newton, as Master of the Mint, set the gold price of £4.25 per fine ounce that lasted two hundred years, except during the Napoleonic wars when gold cash payments were suspended.

1925: £1 equivalent to $4.86. 

1949: Exchequer announces formal 30% devaluation, $4.03 to $2.80.

1964/65: [sterling crisis, cap in hand to the BIS and IMF]

1967: Formal devaluation, $2.80 to $2.40

“It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

Prime Minister Harold Wilson, 1967

Sources:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/a-short-history-of-the-british-pound/

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/articles/1325/the-200-year-pound-to-dollar-exchange-rate-history-from-5-in-1800s-to-todays.html

1.06583 last. 

On the bovine standard 1 GBP = 1 MCD regular hamburger.

Down from 15 cows  
Which, on October 2nd, was followed by "Does King Henry I's Order of 1125 Apply To The BoE and Treasury As Well As To The Royal Mint?":
"All the moneyers who were in England should be mutilated"
This was the order given by King Henry I in 1125. Specifically, they should each "lose their right hand and be castrated....

I don't think Ms Kaminska was that angry.

1.2476, last. It was the reversal of an almost 1100 year downtrend. (928 AD - 2022 AD)

So a good call. But where was she when we got crosswise to the the Denarius/Shekel pair in A.D. 70?
As we were running those damn "Here at Masada Securities we consider ourselves a fortress of strength in these uncertain times...." adverts.