This is going to lead to one of two things (I mean beyond the fact that people won't be able to afford basic sustenance). Either the Mafia gets into the "let's adulterate the olive oil" biz or a reprise of the Great Salad Oil Swindle of 1963.
First up, from the Financial Times:
No rain in Spain pushes olive oil prices to record levels
Continuing drought conditions leave traders and analysts worried about this year’s output
A lack of rain in Spain has pushed prices for olive oil to record levels, with analysts warning that a particularly dry summer could lead to even lower crop yields later this year.
Olive oil prices have surged almost 60 per cent since June to roughly €5.4 per kilogramme, on the back of a severe drought in Europe that last year ruined olive crops across the continent.
Spain, the largest olive oil producer, was hit particularly hard. The country’s farmers typically produce half of the world’s olive oil, though annual supplies have roughly halved to about 780,000 tonnes in the past 12 months.
“In 20 years in the industry I have never seen these prices”, said Vito Martinelli, grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank. Last year “was a disaster” for Spain, and the crop in Italy “was also bad, along with other countries in the Mediterranean”.....
....MUCH MORE
And from Bloomberg:
Olive-Oil Shock Hits Italian Families Struggling With Pizza Cost
- Condiment’s price growth is still accelerating amid drought
- Index shows cost of Pizza Margherita still up more than 20%
A 27% jump in the price of olive oil is prolonging the cost-of-living shock on Italian families already reeling from lasting increases in the cooking staples that make up Bloomberg’s Pizza Margherita index.
The condiment found in kitchens across the peninsula is the only one of the five tracked ingredients for the quintessential Naples dish that is still getting more expensive at a faster pace. The overall cost of making a pizza at home has now been at least 20% higher than a year earlier for eight months in a row.
The enduring surge in the price of olive oil reflects a devastating drought afflicting Spain, the world’s biggest producer, at a time of dry conditions in the rest of southern Europe....
....MUCH MORE, including the hitherto unknown to me Bloomberg Pizza Margherita index.
Because of the Mafia's agricultural roots, see "The Sicilian Mafia and the International Lemon Cartel" or "Sicily’s mafia sprang from the growing global market for lemons – a tale with sour parallels for consumers today" we should probably be on the lookout for funny-smelling oil-and-lemon juice salad dressings.
The worst of the adulterations was probably the one in Spain in 1981 when contaminated rapeseed oil was sold as olive oil with horrific results.
On the oil scam, Global Financial Data did a nice write-up in 2013:
The Fiftieth Anniversary of JFK and the Great Salad Oil Swindle
Although the scandal led to the bankruptcy of a major broker-dealer: "In Re Ira Haupt & Co., 234 F. Supp. 167 (S.D.N.Y. 1964)" it did allow Warren Buffett to pick up some American Express on the cheap. He got a five-banger out of it.
