Thursday, March 19, 2020

Société Générale's Albert Edwards Emerges From Bears Lair, Comments

Albert takes no pleasure in this.
Via Bryce Elder's* Market's Now:
15:20pm GMT - Albert Edwards of SocGen would’ve held his annual bearfest on January 14, three days before the FTSE 100 hit its recent peak of 7,674. At pixel it’s 5,104. Here’s the intro to Albert’s latest:
The idea that the bears somehow predicted recent events is of course ridiculous. The ongoing economic and market collapse was clearly caused by a wholly exogenous event, unlike the October 2008 Lehman crisis, which was endogenous to the crisis itself (although there was discussion a decade ago of our increased vulnerability due to globalisation).

Having said that, for those of us who have long berated central banks throughout this cycle for the excessively loose monetary policy that has created 'everything bubbles', most especially in US corporate debt, the rapidity of the collapse is in large part a function of the vulnerability of the global economy prior to the coronavirus outbreak. The recent inversion of the US yield curve, for example, indicated that the longest US cycle in history was nearing its end, while Chinese and European growth were already looking fragile....
*Like Tyler Perry or Florenz Ziegfeld, the impresario's name is part of the name of the production.
Next up, watch Bryce juggle plates while typing with various non-traditional body parts.