Friday, September 13, 2019

Tropical Storm Outlook as of September 13

From the National Hurricane Center:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, centered over the central Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. A tropical wave located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2.  Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while the it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Meanwhile, Weather Underground's Cat. 6 blog (on blogroll at right as Wunderblog) has the track forecast/cone of uncertainty:

https://s.w-x.co/wu/WU-PTC9-NHC-track-21Z-9.12.19.png