Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Comparing The U.S. and China's Electricity Production By Fuel Source

Following up on the post immediately below, "China data centres set to consume more power than Australia: report".
Keep in mind, on a nominal basis China is the second largest economy in the world, on a Purchasing Power Parity basis China is the largest economy in the world.

First up, From China Energy Portal:
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2018 electricity & other energy statistics
Published on: January 25, 2019
Original title: 2018年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表
Links: Source document (in Chinese) (link). Same statistics for (2017) (2016) (2015) (2014) (2013) (2012) (2011) (2010) (2009) (2008) (2007) (2006).

[*: ‘Thermal’ power generation includes coal, gas, oil. In these graphs, biomass power production has been subtracted from values reported for ‘Thermal’ by the CEC (in the statistical bulletin below). Data on biomass production is from the NEA press conference (link)]...
...MUCH MORE

And from the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Electricity Monthly Update
With Data for June 2019 
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/images/Gen_By_FS.PNG

And Today in Energy, February 6, 2019
Future U.S. electricity generation mix will depend largely on natural gas prices

natural gas fuel price to electric generators and share of generation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2019

The mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States has changed in response to differences in the relative costs of electricity-generating technologies and their fuels. EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019) shows that projected generation and capacity is significantly influenced by natural gas prices. In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology scenario, a sensitivity case with low natural gas prices, natural gas provides 54% of all U.S. electricity generation by the end of the projection period. In the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology scenario, a corresponding sensitivity case with high natural gas prices, the natural gas generation share falls to 21%.

On an annual basis, natural gas surpassed coal in 2016 as the fuel most used to generate electricity in the United States. In the AEO2019 Reference case, natural gas remains the leading source of electricity generation through 2050. In 2018, natural gas accounted for 34% of total electricity generation, and EIA projects its share to grow to 40% by 2032 and then remain between 39% and 40% throughout 2050. Electricity generation shares from coal and nuclear gradually decline as coal and nuclear become less cost competitive compared with natural gas and renewables. Renewables generation surpasses nuclear by 2020 and surpasses coal by the mid-2020s as tax credits and lower capital costs drive solar photovoltaic and wind capacity additions.
electricity generation from selected fuels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2019


As we try to point out to folks, most recently in Aug. 21's "China coal mine approvals surge despite climate pledges"
This is a couple weeks old but I was asked to justify my ongoing contention that:
China is still building-out its coal infrastructure.
You didn't believe the "largest developer of renewables" spin did you?

They are the largest developer of renewables and they are the largest developer of nuclear and they are the largest developer of coal and will be the largest developer of natural gas if they can steal a bit of Japan's cutting edge technology for extracting methane clathrates or American fracking tech.