Thursday, August 3, 2017

Crispen Odey Has Somehow Outlasted Andy Hall As Astenbeck Capital Closes Its Main Oil Fund

If pushed i would have guessed Mr. Ody would fold first but he's a obstinate cuss.
We have been dubious of the adoration given to Hall for a decade now, some links below.
As to Odey he may still be forced to sell the manor and move into the Palladian chicken coop but for now, he persisted.

From Bloomberg: 

The Oil Trader Known as ‘God’ Is Closing Down His Main Hedge Fund
Andy Hall, the oil trader sometimes known in markets as “God,” is closing down his main hedge fund after big losses in the first half of the year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The global crude market has “materially worsened” and prices may be stuck around $50 a barrel or below, Hall told investors in his Astenbeck Capital Management LLC firm in a letter last month. The flagship Astenbeck Master Commodities Fund II lost almost 30 percent through June, a separate person with knowledge of the matter said. The people asked not to be identified because the details are private.

A representative of the firm declined to comment.

Hall shot to fame during the global financial crisis after Citigroup Inc. revealed that, in one year, he pocketed $100 million trading oil for the U.S. bank. His career stretches back to the 1970s and includes stints at BP Plc and legendary trading house Phibro Energy Inc., where he was chief executive officer.

“I’m shocked,” said Danilo Onorino, a portfolio manager at Dogma Capital SA in Lugano, Switzerland. “This is the end of an era. He’s one of the top oil traders ever.”

Hall is a prodigious collector of art who, with his wife and their foundation, owns more than 5,000 pieces by several hundred artists including Andy Warhol and Joseph Beuys. They exhibit some of it at Schloss Derneburg, a 1,000-year-old castle in Germany they bought in 2006....MORE
One quick note: that 'God' should be small-g.
Maybe subscript.

Some of our previous Hall-marks along the trail:
July 7
Oil--Is Astenbeck Capital's Andrew Hall The Victim of Fake News?

He did it to himself.
Yesterday the Financial Timess' man-about-commodities, Neil Hume tipped us to Mr. Hall's letter to his investors in the story by the FT's petroleum poobah, David Sheppard:...
October 2016
Oil Trader Andy Hall Nipped By $676,250 Art Forgery
I say nipped because Mr. Hall has lost more than the value of the forgery in an hour (and done it more than once with his stubborn long oil positions since $114 in June 2014)... 
December 2015
Not As Good as Advertised: Losses For Former Oil Guru Andy Hall Deepen
In trading it is crucial to retain agility of mind and enough self-awareness to understand you are dealing with forces greater than yourself, puny human.
When you start screaming into the wind that the market is wrong, you've lost. The market is what it is....
Nov. 5 2015
Oil--Astenbeck Capital's Andrew Hall Says Production Data Doesn’t Suggest Surplus

We have had some success betting against Mr. Hall for the last few years but are aware that one of these days he's going to be right. Not just yet though. Front month futures $45.76, down 56 cents....
There's that self awareness. And some situational awareness.
Oct. 2015
Oil: Astenbeck Capital's Andy Hall Is Long, Wrong and Down 20% Year-to-Date
Aug 2015
Despite Losing 17% In July, Astenbeck Capital 's Andy Hall Maintains Higher Oil Prices Are Right Around The Corner
Feb. 2015
Astenbeck Capital's Andrew Hall: Oil Is Going To $65 And The Surviving Shale Plays Will Do Just Fine
Feb. 2015
UPDATED--Astenbeck Capital's Andrew Hall "See's $40 Oil ‘Absolute Price Floor’"
Oct. 2015
Former Oil Guru Andrew Hall Is In Cash 
Sept. 2014 
Oil: Former Phibro Guru Andy Hall Bets Against Shale, Buys Long-dated Futures

$100 Million Oil Trader Andy Hall: Maybe He Wasn't As Good As Advertised
How Some of the Biggest Funds in Oil Trading Got Wrong-footed By the Widening Brent-WTI Spread
Phibro Superstar Andrew Hall’s Commodity Hedge Fund, Austenback Down 10% YTD

The Last Word On Oil Trader Andy Hall and Life On the Right Hand Side of the Distribution
Occidental buys Citi firm Phibro for $250 million (OXY)

There are more but you get the gist. I was especially pleased with that October 2015 headline: "...Long, Wrong and Down 20%". As noted in the outro:
...Regarding the headline, rather than the Journal's two-beat "Long and Wrong" we went with a modified Lady Caroline Lamb who said of Lord Byron: He is "Mad, Bad, and Dangerous to Know".
Finally, from 2012's "Palladio is Turning Over in His Tomb":
...(For those who can appreciate the news without worrying about what it’s going to cost them, here’s a blueprint of the chicken mansion, courtesy of FT Alphaville):
Drawings for Crispin Odey’s “chicken house” depicted a structure with a three-sided stairway and two dozen columns. 
Drawings for Crispin Odey’s “chicken house” depicted a structure with a three-sided stairway and two dozen columns.

Note chicken bottom left for scale.