This Bloomberg piece originally came out Jan. 7
Original post:
A short on today's rig count release sounds plausible in light of next week's drilling efficiency report.
WTI front month March: $52.90 up $2.42, Brent $57.99 up $1.42.
From Bloomberg:
Oil prices have almost bottomed out and “some recovery” is likely by the second half of the year as demand picks up, commodity hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall told investors.
Crude could trade in the $40-a-barrel range in 2015, close to “an absolute price floor,” the head of Astenbeck Capital Management wrote in a Jan. 2 letter obtained by Bloomberg News. A significant amount of U.S. and Canadian production can’t cover the cash costs of operating at that price, he said.
“Oil prices will stay under pressure in 2015,” he wrote. “However, current prices are not sustainable in the longer term. The interplay between extreme weakness in the short term and the potential for supply shortfalls in the medium term should create attractive trading opportunities over the course of the coming 12 months.”
Hall gained notoriety in 2009 after receiving a pay package of about $100 million while at Citigroup Inc., a bank that received government assistance during the financial crisis. For more than two decades he led Phibro LLC, which Occidental Petroleum Corp. bought from Citigroup. Founded in 2010, Astenbeck manages a total of $3 billion.
Phibro is in the process of being sold by Occidental and Astenbeck is now operating independently, according to two people familiar who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Spokeswomen for Occidental and Astenbeck declined to comment.
Plunging Prices
West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell below $50 a barrel this week for the first time in more than five years. WTI rose 0.5 percent to $48.91 at 11:27 a.m. today in London. Prices fell 46 percent last year, as flagging demand forecasts met expanded output from North American shale formations.
A futures contract for April delivery is selling for $49.78. Delivery in December is $55.12 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg....MOREPreviously:
Jan. 8
Oil: Astenback Capital's Andrew Hall Calls $40/Bbl, Recovery in 2nd Half
Former Oil Guru Andrew Hall Is In Cash
Oil: Former Phibro Guru Andy Hall Bets Against Shale, Buys Long-dated Futures
$100 Million Oil Trader Andy Hall: Maybe He Wasn't As Good As Advertised
How Some of the Biggest Funds in Oil Trading Got Wrong-footed By the Widening Brent-WTI Spread
Phibro Superstar Andrew Hall’s Commodity Hedge Fund, Austenback Down 10% YTD
The Last Word On Oil Trader Andy Hall and Life On the Right Hand Side of the Distribution
Occidental buys Citi firm Phibro for $250 million (OXY)
