Directionally, guessing the second (or third) derivative is hard.
From MoneyBeat:
Options traders are betting that swings in Tesla Motors Inc. shares could rev up after it reports fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday.
The options market is pricing in a move of 9% in Tesla through Friday, based on the pricing of an options strategy called a straddle, according to Trade Alert. That would be the largest move after earnings for the stock since May 2014, when Tesla shares fell 11%. Still, it would be smaller than the 11.3% average earnings swing over the last eight quarters. The median move in the same period was 10%, according to Trade Alert.
Tesla, of course, is one of the most actively traded “momentum stocks” and prone to wild swings even in the absence of major news.
The stock has fallen 24% from its record of $286.04, set back in September. Shares are up 6.2% in February so far, and down 2.8% this year, through Tuesday’s close....MORE
