Thursday, January 8, 2015

Oil: Astenback Capital's Andrew Hall Calls $40/Bbl, Recovery in 2nd Half

After trading as low as $46.83 yesterday and as high as $49.65 today we may have seen the immediate-term bottom. $48.77 +0.12, last.
From Barron's Focus on Funds:
Hedge fund Astenbeck Capital Management’s manager Andrew Hall is calling a floor on oil at $40 and sees some recovery in the second half of the year, Bloomberg reports.

“Oil prices will stay under pressure in 2015 … However, current prices are not sustainable in the longer term. The interplay between extreme weakness in the short term and the potential for supply shortfalls in the medium term should create attractive trading opportunities over the course of the coming 12 months,” Hall said in a recent letter to clients, report Bradley Olson and Simone Foxman.

U.S. oil prices have stabilized in the past two days, but have fallen more than 50% since the summer and dipped under $50 a barrel this week for the first time in five years. Oil futures rose 0.3% to $48.78 in recent trading. The United States Oil Fund (USO) added 0.3%, while the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL) rose 0.4%.

More from Olson and Foxman:
“Cuts in spending this year will set the stage for an eventual supply shortfall, said Hall, who has long held that oil will become more expensive....
...MORE

Previously on the Andy Hall channel:

Oil: Former Phibro Guru Andy Hall Bets Against Shale, Buys Long-dated Futures
Former Oil Guru Andrew Hall Is In Cash
$100 Million Oil Trader Andy Hall: Maybe He Wasn't As Good As Advertised
How Some of the Biggest Funds in Oil Trading Got Wrong-footed By the Widening Brent-WTI Spread
Phibro Superstar Andrew Hall’s Commodity Hedge Fund, Austenback Down 10% YTD
The Last Word On Oil Trader Andy Hall and Life On the Right Hand Side of the Distribution
Occidental buys Citi firm Phibro for $250 million (OXY)