2017 hurricane season forecast upped to above average by Weather Co.
The Weather Company has revised its forecast for the 2017 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season, saying that the latest indications and data now suggest a year with activity levels a little above average.Here's our last (April 20) visit to Artemis:
The Weather Company now forecasts that the 2017 season will see a slightly above average 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes that reach major status of Category 3 or higher, which should be noted by reinsurance interests.
It’s previous forecast from April had been for 12, 6 and 2, which was an average for a year.
The forecaster says that the latest observations show warmer sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which tend to correlate with more active tropical seasons. There are indications that further warming is also possible, which could add to increased activity.
“The historically strong North Atlantic blocking event in early May also suggests the possibility of continued increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies, so it would be no surprise if we increased our forecast numbers again,” explained Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.
The Weather Company also says that it forecasts “a reduced potential for the development and strength of El Niño later this summer.”
El Niño can have a strong influence on hurricane and tropical weather activity levels, and the forecaster notes that there is “plenty of uncertainty regarding El Niño’s possible development, and therefore, how much of an effect it could have on the hurricane season.”
El Niño had previously been cited by forecasters as the main reason for below-average forecasts for the 2017 tropical season, but with the chances of an El Niño now seen as a little lower this is factoring into the latest updates.
As ever the reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) community are most concerned about landfalls in the United States, the source of major catastrophe loss events....MUCH MORE
Insurance: "2017 hurricane forecasts suggest below average season due to El Niño"
A number of forecasts have been released for the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Storm & Hurricane Season and so far all are calling for activity levels just below the long-term average, with the expectation that we will see a weak El Niño by the typical peak of the season suggesting a slower year....
And on The Weather Company:
IBM's Watson Gets A Real Job: Big Blue Closes Purchase of The Weather Company
IBM Says Their Newly Purchased The Weather Company Is An IoT Platform
And here I was thinking* the purchase was just a fancy way to mobilize Watson as a crop-insurance salesman along the lines of Google funded The Climate Corporation.The Weather Company (Weather Channel) to Pay $600 Mln Dividend to Sponsors, Including Bain and Blackstone
And if interested:
Ha! Monsanto Buys Crop Insurer/Data Co. for $930 Mil. (MON)