Friday, May 12, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

From the Energy Information Agency:
(For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 10, 2017)
  • Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, May 3 to Wednesday, May 10). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $3.09 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.11/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the June 2017 contract price rose 6¢ from $3.228/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.292/MMBtu yesterday.
  • Net injections to working gas totaled 45 Bcf for the week ending May 5. Working natural gas stocks are 2,301 Bcf, which is 14% lower than the year-ago level and 14% higher than the five-year (2012–16) average for this week.
Prices mostly rise. This report week (Wednesday, May 3 to Wednesday, May 10), the Henry Hub spot price rose 2¢ from $3.09/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.11/MMBtu yesterday. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased 14¢ to $3.08/MMBtu yesterday. At almost every trading point, prices increased substantially between Tuesday and yesterday, jumping 8¢ at Henry Hub, for example.
As with Henry Hub, West Coast prices increased between Tuesday and yesterday, such as SoCal Citygate, which jumped 10¢. The SoCal Citygate price rose 6¢ Wednesday to Wednesday, settling at $3.23/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California gained 15¢ to $3.42/MMBtu yesterday.

Northeast prices mostly rise outside of Boston. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices increased 13¢ to $2.98/MMBtu yesterday. In contrast, at the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went down 12¢ from $3.29/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.17/MMBtu yesterday.
Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices advanced 7¢ to $2.74/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania rose 12¢ to $2.88/MMBtu yesterday.

June contract prices rise. At the Nymex, the price of the June 2017 contract increased 6¢, from $3.228/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.292/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip, averaging June 2017 through May 2018 futures contracts, climbed 6¢ to $3.381/MMBtu.

U.S. supply increases slightly. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1% compared with the previous week. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 5% from last week.
This report week is the second week that net imports from Canada have increased because of reduced exports on the Vector Pipeline, which begins southwest of Chicago and runs to Dawn Hub in Ontario. Vector is under Phase 2 of its maintenance project, which is projected to last through May 18, during which time flows will be highly restricted. This maintenance will allow Vector to connect with the Rover Pipeline, which was part of a batch of projects certificated by FERC earlier this year.

Demand falls slightly. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic. Week over week, power burn declined by 8, industrial sector consumption stayed constant at 20.5 Bcf/d, and residential/commercial sector demand increased by 11%. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3%....


The two week chart tells the story, $3.3760 last.