Thursday, November 10, 2016

NVIDIA: Ahead of Today's Earnings Report There Sure Is A Lot Of Happy Talk (NVDA)

Attentive reader may have noticed we haven't posted on the company in the run-up to today's numbers. Instead we end up in the very unfamiliar role of prude saying stuff such as this from October 25:
We continue to bet on one of the class acts of Silicon valley but investors have to know what  they have here and unless they are willing to ride a 20% down move to get to greater glory profits they should maybe go buy some T-bills...
Our links after the jump.
And here are some of the things folks are saying this week:
From Zack's:

Why Earnings Season Could Be Great for NVIDIA (NVDA) November 09, 2016
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA - Free Report) may be one such company. The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon, and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report.

That is because NVIDIA is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late, which is generally a precursor to an earnings beat. After all, analysts raising estimates right before earnings—with the most up-to-date information possible—is a pretty good indicator of some favorable trends underneath the surface for NVDA in this report.

In fact, the Most Accurate Estimate for the current quarter is currently at 57 cents per share for NVDA, compared to a broader Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents per share. This suggests that analysts have very recently bumped up their estimates for NVDA, giving the stock a Zacks Earnings ESP of 1.79% heading into earnings season....MORE

From Barron's Tech Trader Daily, Nov. 9:

From Investor's Business Daily, Nov. 8:
Nvidia PT Hiked Ahead Of Earnings
Nvidia Poised For Sixth Quarter Of Accelerating Sales Growth

From Forbes:
We Can Expect Another Stellar Quarter From Nvidia

From Investopedia, Nov. 8:

Nvidia Receives Round of Upgrades (NVDA)
Semiconductor giant Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) received a fresh round of upgrades from analysts as the company prepares to report third-quarter earnings Thursday, Nov. 10. Here’s a rundown of the latest ratings from Wall Street analysts.
  • B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis reiterated a Buy rating Nov. 7 and set a price target of $85.00. Ellis’s price target represents 19.4% upside from Tuesday’s closing price. Ellis said that he expects the company’s video gaming division to add anywhere from $200 million to $350 million more in revenue in the third quarter and fourth quarter, combined. (See also: NVIDIA’s Shares Rising to New Heights.)
  • Merrill Lynch analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating Nov. 7 and set a price target of $80.00. Arya expects the company to top earnings expectations and raise its outlook thanks to increased sales in gaming technology and its Pascal-based enterprise server launches. In a research report, Arya called NVDA’s gaming power “underappreciated” and said that he anticipated that the firm’s data center business will be a key driver for the company’s financial performance. Arya’s price target represents 12.4% upside from Tuesday’s closing price. (See also: NVIDIA Touts Involvement in Nintendo Switch.)

Meanwhile the stock is trading a bit nervously, down $2.19 at $67.77 and  7.1% off the all time high from October 26, $72.95.

Oct. 25
Yes, Yes NVIDIA Set New All-Time Highs Yesterday and Today, However... (NVDA)
Oct. 21 
"Earnings Jolt Stocks Like Never Before as ETFs, Algos Get Blame" (NVDA; FSLR)
Yes, I am thinking about NVIDIA'a upcoming numbers* and I still get butterflies riding an extended stock that is priced with zero-tolerance for disappointment.

We went through the same thing with First Solar, out in public here on the blog, every three months, pretty much from the $20 IPO in November 2006 to the $317 top-tick in less than 18 months and then down to $11.43 over the next four years.
On some report days the options would move through five or six strike prices.

It got so rollery-coastery we'd do stroke symptom identification drills using the American Stroke Association's F.A.S.T. protocol:

Face drooping:  -no, that's just a hang-dog expression
Arm weakness:  -no, she just through a monitor across the room
Slurred speech: -no, that's the director of customer relations/client retention just returned  from a three grand lunch.
Time to call an ambulance: no, time for some rapid-pulse chair aerobics as the algos move faster than even seems possible.
Hmmm....this intro seems to be going to a dark place.
On a lighter note, here's the headline story from Bloomberg...
Sept. 29
So, What's New With NVIDIA? (NVDA)

And dozens more going back to May 2015.
Yeah, we like it

NVDA NVIDIA Corporation daily Stock Chart