Friday, November 18, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Here's the last year's price action via FinViz:

And from the Energy Information Administration:
Continued early heating season injections push working gas storage to record levels. Net injections into storage totaled 30 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net injection of 3 Bcf and last year's net injections of 26 Bcf during the same week. For the second week in a row, net injections into storage exceeded the five-year average. Unseasonably mild temperatures mitigated consumption of natural gas and contributed to considerably larger-than-average net injections. Working gas stocks total 4,047 Bcf, an all-time high, and are 216 Bcf higher than the five-year average and 51 Bcf higher than last year at this time. 

Most regions in the Lower 48 states top record storage levels. Working gas stocks in the Midwest, Mountain, and South Central regions exceeded their previous five-year highs of 1,126 Bcf, 230 Bcf, and 1,363 Bcf, respectively. The East region posted its first withdrawal of the 2016–17 heating season (November 1–March 31), and stocks in the region were 16 Bcf below their five-year maximum of 960 Bcf set in 2012. The Pacific region is 58 Bcf below its five-year maximum, in large part because of inventory restrictions on the Aliso Canyon facility.

South Central region climbs past year-ago levels, robust injections continue at salt facilities. Net injections totaled 20 Bcf in the South Central region, with salt dome facilities accounting for net injections of 9 Bcf. Total net injections in the region topped the five-year average of 5 Bcf for the week. Since September 23, when net injections last fell below the five-year average at the salt dome facilities, net injections have totaled 119 Bcf, 61% above the five-year average. Working gas stocks in the South Central region are 10% higher than the five-year average for this time of year.

Net injections are in line with market expectations. Estimates of net injections into storage ranged from 24 Bcf to 41 Bcf, with a median of 30 Bcf. The price of the Nymex futures contract for December delivery at the Henry Hub fell 3¢/MMBtu to $2.71MMBtu in 270 trades at the release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). Prices recovered somewhat in subsequent trading, averaging $2.72/MMBtu within two minutes of the release....

Spread to the January futures price remains higher than year-ago levels, increasing on the week. During the most recent storage week, the average natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub was $2.23/MMBtu, while the Nymex futures price of natural gas for delivery in January 2017 averaged $2.88/MMBtu, a difference of 65¢. The premium was 57¢/MMBtu during the previous storage week. The increase in the premium over the previous storage week resulted primarily from a decline in the spot price on the week because of the relatively light heating demand for natural gas. The premium was 39¢ a year ago. 

Temperatures were lower than last week and remain higher than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 55°F, 6°F higher than the normal and 2°F higher than last year at this time. Cooling degree days (CDD) in the Lower 48 states totaled 7, compared with 9 last year and compared with a normal of 5. Heating degree days (HDD) in the Lower 48 states totaled 76, compared with 92 last year and a normal of 118....MUCH MORE