Thursday, November 17, 2016

Antipodean Uh-Oh: Skyscraper Index In Australia

From The Daily Reckoning, Nov. 16:

The Curse of the High and Mighty-Property
No, this is not another article on the fate of the Washington elite.
But first to the markets. Gold steady. Bonds steady. Dow steady. Looks like pulses have settled down after a week of trying to anticipate what the president-elect will, or will not, do.
Judging by the recent highs on the US share market, the consensus appears to be ‘business as usual’.
In fact, business may be even better than usual.

President-elect Trump is talking big on infrastructure. A US$1 trillion spending plan means an awful lot (say 20% — $200 billion) is going to fall off the table and into the pockets of those closest to the action. That’s how the insider game works. The US elected a Trojan horse — Trump for the ‘little guy’ on the outside, but, on the inside, it’s Trump for the ‘big guy’.

Rising yields in the bond market are an indication that fixed-interest traders think Trump’s ‘nation building’ policies are going to be inflationary. Perhaps. Firstly, Congress has to approve the expenditure.

Before Donald gets too carried away spending money he doesn’t have on grand projects of dubious value, he might like to get a copy of last weekend’s Gold Coast Bulletin.

Granted, the local paper lacks the journalistic pedigree of the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, but occasionally (OK, rarely) there’s a story behind the story.

The headline persuaded me to part with $2.20.

‘High and Mighty — 103-storey giant to become tallest tower’.
[Click to enlarge]
The Gold Coast property market is enjoying a purple patch at present, thanks to cashed-up interstate buyers, the ever-present Chinese buyer, and the infrastructure spending (and accompanying hype) for the 2018 Commonwealth Games.

The upbeat mood on the Glitter Strip makes for expansive visions.

According to the article:
The southern hemisphere’s tallest building is set to tower over Surfers Paradise at an astonishing 103 storeys. The proposed $1.2 billion Orion Towers would reach 328m…
Tall buildings and big egos have a long history.

In 1999, economist Andrew Lawrence created ‘The Skyscraper Index’.

Lawrence identified a correlation between the construction of the world’s tallest buildings and a subsequent financial crisis....MUCH MORE