Friday, November 11, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report (and La Niña comes to visit)

Yesterday NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declared La Niña conditions, not yet a full blown La Niña which is defined as three overlapping three month periods (five consecutive months) of La Niña conditions. We'll be back next week with more on what the arrival generally means for various investments but for now here's the map NOAA uses for the simpler presentation:

Wintertime La Nina patterns

You can also check the search blog box but be warned it is a language stickler and gives you more results when you use the virgulilla over the n (ñ) than when you don't.
Front futures down another 5.1 cents at 2.5810.

Anyhoo, from the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Natural gas stocks end refill season at record high level
Working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states as of October 31, the traditional end of the refill season, reached a record level of 3,986 billion cubic feet (Bcf), as interpolated from EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report data released today. This is 183 Bcf (5%) higher than the five-year (2011–15) end-of-October average, and exceeds the previous end-of-October high of 3,929 set last in 2012. Net injections during this year's refill season, which started on April 1, 2016, were 678 Bcf (31%) lower than the five-year average and 955 Bcf (39%) lower than injections last year.

Working gas stocks entered the refill season this year at a record high level, totaling 2,470 Bcf on March 31, 19 Bcf above the previous 2012 record. Since the beginning of the refill season, net injections into working gas stocks have totaled 1,516 Bcf. This is the second-lowest refill season since 2007, with injections this year exceeding only the 2012 tally of 1,456 Bcf.

Natural gas production, consumption, and exports are considerably higher now compared with 2012. Despite these changes, the pace of injections to reach that level can vary considerably, depending in large part on where working gas stocks start the refill season. As in 2012, a high April 1 starting point and stronger-than-average power sector consumption contributed to lower-than-average weekly net injections. In the last two years, working gas stocks have ended the refill season within 200 Bcf of the previous five-year average. Additionally, over the last 13 years, weekly injections continued into November....
... Storage:
Robust injections into storage push working gas to new record levels. Net injections into storage totaled 54 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net injection of 38 Bcf and last year's net injections of 55 Bcf during the same week. This marked the first time in 26 weeks that net injections into storage exceeded the five-year average. Unseasonably mild temperatures mitigated consumption of natural gas and contributed to considerably larger-than-average net injections. Working gas stocks total 4,017 Bcf–a new all-time high. Additionally, working gas stocks are 189 Bcf more than the five-year average and 47 Bcf more than last year at this time. Working gas in the Midwest, Mountain, and South Central salt regions exceeded their previous five-year highs of 1,122 Bcf, 230 Bcf, and 372 Bcf, respectively. The East region and the South Central nonsalt region are 9 Bcf and 6 Bcf below the five-year maximum for their respective regions. The Pacific region is 58 Bcf below its five-year maximum, in large part because of inventory restrictions on the Aliso Canyon facility....MUCH MORE
Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Nov 03, 2016