Over the next few years reinsurance giant Munich Re does not expect any significant growth in insurance or reinsurance demand, the company’s Board said today, which suggests that with the excess capital sloshing around the market pressure will not ease any time soon.
Board of management member for reinsurance at Munich Re Tosten Jerrowek told a media briefing at the 2016 Monte Carlo Reinsurance Rendez-vous today that the reinsurers analysis suggests a relatively tepid outlook for market demand.
“No significant growth is expected in insurance and reinsurance,” Jerrowek said, adding that while growth might be higher in emerging markets, developed markets would see relatively static demand for re/insurance protection.
For the reinsurance market in particular, Jerrowek said that Munich Re only anticipates 1% growth in the coming years, a level that will not be sufficient to soak up any of the excess capital or alternative capital in the market today.
For some years the market has been looking to China as a potential source of growth, but Jerrowek said that Munich Re expects reinsurance cessions in China will slide, due to the introduction of the C-ROSS solvency regulatory regime.
There will be a “negative impact on capital levels required” Jerrowek said, adding that the result will be a lower demand for reinsurance in the country.
With the reinsurance market awash with traditional capital while alternative capital continues to grow, this situation of sluggish growth is likely to exacerbate the pressure on reinsurers at a time when profits have been dropping.
“The market environment for the insurance industry continues to be dominated by strong competition and relentless pressure to change,” Munich Re explained in a press release today.
“Competition is characterised by low interest rates, high capitalisation of market participants, and the impact of alternative capital,” the company noted. “There is still ample capacity available. But pressure on prices, terms and conditions has eased off slightly in recent renewal rounds.”...MORE