Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Forex Market 'On the Cusp' of Storm - With Implications for Ag Commodities


From Agrimoney:
OK, currency markets may pretty stable right now. But don't expect that to last.

And volatility ahead will have big implications for agricultural commodities.

So says Eddie Tofpik, head of foreign exchange at ADM Investor Services International in London flagging, for instance, the lack of foreign exchange market reaction on Thursday to news from the Bank of England that a further drop in UK interest rates is still on the table for later this year.

Sterling is, for instance, eases all of 0.2% against the euro, and 0.3% versus the dollar.

"But that does not mean that there is no change ahead," Mr Tofpik tells Agrimoney.com.

"In terms a farmer might appreciate, just because it does not rain today does not mean it won't rain tomorrow or the day after."

'Don't expect it to last'And we are "perhaps not in the eye of a hurricane, but on the cusp of increased activity" in foreign exchange markets.

"Things are stable now, but don't expect it to last," Mr Tofpik says, flagging the US elections as the first, predictable "risk event".

"The market will react to whoever ends up in the White House."

Further ahead we have the triggering of Article 50 - that is the start of the UK's exit process from the European Union, which is expected early in 2017.

And then "we have to see what happens in Europe after that", with elections in Germany and France ahead to deal with too.

Big influenceHowever, these events turn out, the foreign exchange markets – the world's biggest – will be "the first to move".

And being "the most influential of all markets", how they react will have a big impact on prices of other assets too, including agricultural ones....