Today's reports and next month's WASDE are the last reports before the Northern Hemisphere harvests are in so we're getting ready to turn our attention to natural gas again.From the Energy Information Administration:
'And the seasons they go round and round...'
(For the Week Ending Wednesday, September 28, 2016)
- Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, September 21 to Wednesday, September 28). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $3.14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.98/MMBtu yesterday.
- At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the October 2016 contract expired yesterday at $2.952/MMBtu, down 11¢ from last Wednesday. The November 2016 contract fell to $3.002/MMBtu, down 13¢ from last Wednesday to yesterday.
- Net injections into storage totaled 49 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net injection of 97 Bcf and last year's net injection of 99 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks total 3,600 Bcf, 220 Bcf above the five-year average and 90 Bcf above last year at this time.
- The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 19¢, closing at $5.21/MMBtu for the week ending September 23. The price of natural gasoline, ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane all rose, increasing by 1%, 3%, 6%, 4%, and 4%, respectively.
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, September 23, the natural gas rig count increased by 3 to 92. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 2 to 418. The total rig count climbed by 5, and it now stands at 511.
Injections to storage continue at slower-than-normal rate. Net injections into storage totaled 49 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net injection of 97 Bcf and last year's net injections of 99 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks total 3,600 Bcf, which is 220 Bcf above the five-year average and 90 Bcf above last year at this time. When the refill season began on April 1, working gas stocks were 874 Bcf above the five-year average....
... Net injections fall below range of market expectations, early trading moves prices ahead of release. Estimates of net injections into storage ranged from 52 Bcf to 68 Bcf, with a median of 53 Bcf. For the second week in a row, early trading seconds ahead of the release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) occurred. Several seconds prior to the WNGSR release, the price of the Nymex contract for November delivery at the Henry Hub was $2.96/MMBtu. Early trading before the release moved the price of the November contract to $2.98/MMBtu, and at the release of the WNGSR, the price of the November futures contract reached $3.00/MMBtu during relatively light trading. Prices reached $3.02/MMBtu within two minutes of the release.
Spread to the January futures price remains close to year-ago levels. During the most recent storage week, the average natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub was $3.05/MMBtu, while the Nymex futures price of natural gas for delivery in January 2017 averaged $3.38/MMBtu, a difference of 33¢. A year ago, the premium was 32¢.
Temperatures remain higher than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 73°F, 7°F higher than the normal and 4°F higher than last year at this time. Cooling degree days (CDD) in the Lower 48 states totaled 62, compared with 42 last year and a normal of 32....