Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Revisiting the CRB Index

Ahead of today's WASDE report--though April is usually a non-event we pay attention--a quick look at the CRB Core Commodity Index (CRY).

Although it has a 39% hydrocarbon weighting, this is much less than the 63% CnH2n+2 weighting in the S&P GSCI.
The CRY is at 171.8246.

From Marc to Market, Apr. 11, 2016:
The CRB Index is building on last Friday's gains, when it gapped higher.  That gap marked the end of the down move we anticipated on March 28.   The index fell through the two supports we identified (171.30 and 169.50), before bottoming on April 4 near 164.70.  
We had thought that a three-legged correction off the January 20 low was complete.  However, the recent price action suggest that a five-wave move is more likely.   
First, the gap higher last Friday has not been filled.  It leaves a potential five-day island bottom it its wake.  Second, the RSI has turned higher and the MACDs are about to cross.   Third, today's gains, which have not been retraced much, have lifted the index through the 20-day moving average (~171.60) and tested to  50% retracement of the down move we caught (~171.95)....MORE