Saturday, April 16, 2016

It's Not Cars, It's the Future of Mobility

Tesla and Uber don't exist in a vacuum.
Ford and increasingly the Germans have the ability and assets to crush the Palo Alto and San Francisco guys.
From Barron's:

Ford’s Focus Is on the Future of Mobility
The challenge, CEO Mark Fields says, is navigating an evolving mobility landscape being shaped by technology and societal change.
Mark Fields, CEO of Ford Motor, is embracing the future with a passion that might have been familiar to founder Henry Ford. Fields, 55, who took the wheel at the nation’s No. 2 auto maker in July 2014, wants to transform Ford into a “mobility” company, with one foot in the familiar world of auto manufacturing and the other in a new world of technology that could change the way people think about, utilize, and pay for transportation.

For Fields and Ford (ticker: F), the new rules of the road govern not only gasoline-powered cars, crossovers, sport-utility vehicles, and the company’s fabled F-150 trucks, but also hybrid and electric cars, driverless autos, transportation-related mobile-phone apps, and other technology-based endeavors. Ford recently established Ford Smart Mobility, a subsidiary that will study new business opportunities and revenue streams from its technology initiatives. “It used to be that the future belonged to the company that made the best products,” the CEO said recently at Ford’s Dearborn, Mich., headquarters. “Today, the future goes to the company that makes the best products and collects the best data to turn into services.”

Ford has big ambitions in electrified vehicles—and serious competition. General Motors (GM) will launch its fully electric Chevrolet Bolt late this year, and upstart Tesla Motors (TSLA) plans to launch the Model 3, a more affordable version of its electric luxury vehicles, in late 2017. Ford announced in December that it will spend an additional $4.5 billion on electric- and hybrid-powered vehicles by 2020, and said it expects to make more than 40% of its global brands available in electrified versions by the end of this decade.
Ford is the leading seller in the U.S. of plug-in hybrids, such as the C-MAX Energi and Fusion Energi, gasoline-powered vehicles whose performance and fuel efficiency are enhanced with an electric motor. Later this year, the company will launch a new, electric Focus, which can be 80%-charged in about 30 minutes, giving it a 100-mile range—about half that of the Chevy Bolt, which GM says can add 90 miles of range in a half-hour using a DC quick charger. 

One enthusiastic supporter of electric and hybrid initiatives is Ford Chairman Bill Ford Jr., whose family has 40% voting control of its namesake company.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES aren’t Ford’s only priority. Like most auto makers, it is following Silicon Valley’s lead in developing autonomous cars, equipped with sensors that let a vehicle navigate without human interference.

Fields disclosed in January that Ford plans to triple its driverless fleet to 30 vehicles this year, the most in the industry, and test them in California, Arizona, and Michigan. Using laser-based LiDAR sensor technology and 3-D maps, it has successfully tested autonomous Fusion Hybrids at night and in snow. The company also is increasing its investment in semiautonomous technology, such as advanced cruise control and pedestrian-detection systems.

Although driverless vehicles aren’t in commercial production yet—the regulatory and insurance framework governing their operation doesn’t exist—Boston Consulting Group has forecast that self-driving features could represent a $42 billion market by 2025, growing to $77 billion by 2035, when cars with driverless features will account for 25% of new vehicles sold.

IN A SPEECH in January at CES, the giant consumer-electronics fair in Las Vegas, Fields highlighted four trends that Ford believes will reshape the auto industry: increased urbanization, with its attendant traffic problems; a growing middle class around the globe; poor air quality in many parts of the world; and changing consumer sentiment, or generational differences, in buying patterns. The company has conducted more than 30 “experiments” around the world in car-swapping, ride-sharing, and other services that relate to these themes and address mobility challenges.

Among the pilot projects under way are GoPark and GoDrive, both serving Greater London. The former identifies likely areas with available parking and lets users pay for metered parking via mobile phone; the latter is an app-based car-sharing service through which drivers can reserve vehicles and pay for their use on a per-minute basis, with parking guaranteed. “We have had a company based on unit sales,” Fields says. “We are looking at having a business model based on vehicle miles traveled. That opens up your mind.”...MORE
And this week's Barron's cover: "General Motors and Ford Shares Have 25% Upside"

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