Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDPNow Forecast Declines to 0.4%

Here's the intro to our April 29, 2015 GDPNow update:

"A Rare Win for Economic Forecasting: The Atlanta Fed Almost Nails Its First-Quarter Growth Estimate"
Why do scientists make predictions?

To judge whether their theories are based in reality.

If someone purporting to practice a science says they don't make predictions they aren't doing science but rather something faith-based i.e. more akin to a religion....
And here's the latest from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Center for Quantitative Economic Research:
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release. Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. 
Latest forecast: 0.4 percent — April 5, 2016 
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1. After yesterday morning's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the manufacturing report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for real GDP growth declined from 0.7 percent to 0.4 percent due to declines in the forecasts for real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth. The forecast for real GDP growth remained at 0.4 percent after this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, as a slight decline in the forecast for real net exports was offset by a slight increase in the forecast of real equipment investment growth. 
The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast
March 28
Bring On the Stagflation: "Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDP Now’ Plunges; Predicts Just 0.6% Q1 Growth"