Default rates are going up, with the energy sector looking worse than ever. Fitch Ratings predicts in a Wednesday report that the energy sector’s default rate will surge to 11% in 2016 — higher than the 9.7% rate from 1999. It forecasts the U.S. corporate default rate will rise to 4.5% next year. That doesn’t sound so bad, but it’s a lot of debt. Fitch writes:A reprise of one of the charts from yesterday's "It was the Debt Wot Done It--Oaktree's Howard Marks: Distressed Debt Market Starting To Look Tantalizing":
A 4.5% 2016 high yield default rate equates to $66 billion of defaults and would be the fourth highest default total since 2000. This would be close to the $78 billion amassed in 2001 but well below the record $119 billion posted in 2009....MORE
Thursday, December 10, 2015
"Energy Sector Default Rate to Hit 11% in 2016"
From Barron's Income Investing: