Saturday, October 3, 2015

"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"

From Inverse:
The Ability to Predict the Future Is Just Another Skill 
Psychologist Phil Tetlock on learning to deduce what's going to happen next.
Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case that futurists are skilled, not special. Normal people can make boggling accurate predictions if they just know how to go about it right and how to practice.

Tetlock backs up his crystal ball populism with data: He’s spent the better part of the last decade testing the forecasting abilities of 20,000 ordinary Americans in The Good Judgment Project on topics ranging from melting glaciers to the stability of the Eurozone, only to find that the amateur predictions were more accurate — if not more so — than those of the pundits and so-called forecasting ‘experts’ the media so often defers to.

When it comes to superforecasting, it isn’t what you think, it’s how you think. Tetlock talked to Inverse about how intelligence is overrated, the failures of media pundits, and why the best superforecasters need a healthy dose of doubt....MUCH MORE
Edge Magazine's Master Class In Forecasting With Phillip Tetlock
Dec. 2012
"How To Win At Forecasting" (Philip Tetlock and the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency)
We've linked to Edge a few times. The Observer called it "The World's Smartest Website" but sometimes they're a bit too precious for my taste. This isn't one of those times.
"IARPA: It's like DARPA but for spies!" 
"IARPA's mission [is] to invest in high-risk/high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide the United States with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries."
FBI National Press Release, 2009
Sept. 2013
Daniel Kahnman's Favorite Paper: "On the Psychology of Prediction"

June 2014
Elite Forecasters and The Best Way to Predict the Future 

Sept. 2014 
"U.S. Intelligence Community Explores More Rigorous Ways to Forecast Events"

"Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...."
“What should one do: predict specifics, or forecast broad trends that necessarily miss specifics?”
"Thinking Clearly About Forecasting"
How to Predict a Nation's GDP per Capita at r=.97 Using "Economic Freedom and average citizenry IQ -- plus slight tweaks from trading block membership and oil"

And many more.