Friday, October 30, 2015

"Goldman Sachs: Dollar Could Hit Parity Versus Euro in 2015"

Angela Merkel dreams of this.
EUR/USD 1.10146.

From Barron's Focus on Funds:
Goldman Sachs currency strategists led by Robin Brooks reiterated that the greenback could hit to parity with the euro by the end of this year. 
After the European Central Bank kicked off its program to buy bonds (quantitative easing) earlier this year, Goldman’s team slashed their estimates for the euro/dollar in calling for  euro and dollar will trade at parity, one-to-one, in six months. 
Goldman’s currency call was aggressive, though the rationale behind it was (and is) mainstream: the Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates as the same time that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan embark on multi-year stimulus; the former strengthens the dollar, while the latter weakens other big currencies. 
A funny thing happened: the dollar has mostly traded sideways versus the euro since cresting in March at $1.05. The euro/dollar was $1.10 recently, having jumped as high as $1.15 in August. The currency pair was at around $1.26 a year ago. Flagging dollar strength in the intervening months came about as weak U.S. economic data and global market volatility made the Fed reluctant to raise interest rates....MORE