Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Cramer: "I Don't Want to Cause a Panic. But..."

A bit full of ourselves, eh what?
From CNBC via Yahoo Finance, Dec. 1, 2014:

Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios
At what point are oil prices too low to keep helping the stock market go higher?

Jim Cramer thinks we have found it, with declines across the board seen in the Dow (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI), S&P (^GSPC) and NASDAQ (^IXIC). Sellers are worried that there could be something lurking under those plummeting prices of oil, even as there was a $3 rebound from the hideous oil session on Friday.

But could it be that bad? Let's say that oil really, really tanks due to excessive supply, mainly in the United States, and the low demand from China's slowing growth and European weakness continues. What are the worst case scenarios that could occur? The "Mad Money" host shared his take on the repercussions of low energy prices, to set the stage for what investors should expect.

Rails: There are certainly ramifications of low energy prices beyond production. Oil companies use rails in places where there is no pipeline capacity. With the decline in crude, it will become too expensive to drill in places with no pipelines.

Industrials: These companies are getting hit hard, including General Electric (GE), which has been noticeably present in the oil patch, and Dover, which was just downgraded from a hold to a sell.

Credit: "I don't want to finger any one company because we don't know how they're hedged, and we don't want to cause a panic. But there are stocks down 30, 40 and 50 percent in a matter of weeks and it's not because they're oil and gas companies. It's because they've borrowed a lot of money to drill, more than their current cash flow can cover," said Cramer. The extended credit could cause a real issue if stocks don't come back up....MORE
The last numbers I paid attention to (Q2) had Mr. C's audience in the targeted 25-54 demo at 2,000/day (no zeros omitted). CNBC's total daily audience was 162,000. Via ZeroHedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/06/Cramer%20Daily%20Nielsen.jpg

With those numbers there's probably no need to fear starting a panic.

Contrary to the thesis, despite the fact oil was down today the larger market managed to trade at an all time DJIA high, 17,897.05.
What the heck is he thinking?

For the record: The broader market is going higher, oil and gold are going lower and I'm going home.

*Previously on Blossom:
Jim Cramer beats Monkey in Stock Picking Contest!
What Jim Cramer Does After Beating the Monkey 
"Jim Cramer Takes Issue With Own Investing Tips Being Thrown Back At Him, Demands Apology, More Gentlemanly Conduct (On The Internet)" GS; TSCM
Tracking Jim Cramer: "Investing in Mad Money: Price and Style Effects"
Cramer calls a bottom (again)
Bottom Caller: Cramer on Markets
First Solar Target Raised from $103 to $105 at Goldman Sachs, Cramer Confused (FSLR)
Cramer on BloggingStocks: I won't get excited this time
Jim Cramer Admits: "I Screwed Up" In Recommending Wachovia Stock Two Weeks Ago Because I Liked The CEO
Jim Cramer, Nancy Pelosi and T. Boone Pickens Walk Into a Bar (CLNE)
July 30, 2008
Jim Cramer: "Yes, the Market Has Bottomed"
I respectfully disagree but at least he's humble and lovable.
July 12, 2008
Cramer: Stocks are Doomed, Buy Wine Instead
Hillary Clinton talks with Jim Cramer...And: Bill Clinton, private equity maven?
No tips on cattle futures, a lot of green/clean though
.Bear Stearns: Jim Cramer Defends His Position, Is Still Hated (BSC)
How To Think About Jim Cramer’s Insane Confidence--Even For A Crazy Person--In Bear Stearns
Jim Cramer: Mad Money, Bad Blood (Behind the Scenes)
The Columbia Journalism Review has an interesting look under the rock:
Rick Santelli Takes Down Jim Cramer
Full Disclosure- I've only seen Mad Money a few times, when friends would email links to particularly funny episodes. The guy is a self-confessed stock manipulator....
...And one of the funniest bylines you'll find on a market manipulation story:
Cramer vs. Cramer Will his crazy confession destroy his career?
And many more.