Spaceweather: After Today's Hit From the Coronal Mass Ejection, 40% Chance of X-Class Solar Flares

From SolarHam:

CME Impact
Earth based Magnetometers reacted to an incoming coronal mass ejection around 19:15 UTC, initially first observed by the ACE spacecraft at 18:24 UTC. Although the solar wind increase to near 460 km/s is not all that impressive, characteristics of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried within it could still help enhance geomagnetic activity. The Bz component of the IMF is currently pointing south. Sky watchers at high latitudes should remain alert once it is dark outside. More details to follow if necessary.

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And from SpaceWeather:

CME IMPACT: As expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 21st at approximately 1900 UT. The impact does not appear to be particularly strong. Nevertheless, polar geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead. Aurora alerts: text, voice

X-FLARE (UPDATED): Big sunspot AR2242 erupted on Saturday, Dec. 20th @ 00:27 UT, producing an intense X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:...

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SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2014 Dec 20 2200 UTC

FLARE	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
CLASS M	85 %	85 %
CLASS X	40 %	40 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm