Friday, July 18, 2014

Natural Gas--EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report: Beautiful Summer Weather Smacks Prices to 2014 Lows

Reality intruded on the blogging yesterday at about the time the EIA was reporting a decidedly un-height-of-the-cooling-season increase in gas in storage of 107 Bcf. We apologize.
Here's the report.
Here's FinViz on the price action this week:

August futures are trading at $3.955 up 0.001 after trading as low as $3.947 this morning.
The Thursday afternoon Weekly Update, which we usually get to on Friday morning, shows why:
...Prices/Demand/Supply:
Prices fall on cooler weather. Prices across most of the country fell during the week as air conditioning demand moderated with cooler temperatures. The Henry Hub spot price continued a several week decline, falling from $4.15/MMBtu at the beginning of the week to $4.10/MMBtu yesterday. In a phenomenon reminiscent of the past winter, a cold wave came down from the Arctic this week. Media outlets dubbed this the "ghost of the polar vortex," and the cold air mass first led to fall-like temperatures in the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday before heading to the East Coast. Mild weather in the Rocky Mountains and West Coast also contributed to slight price declines in the markets.

Northeast prices rise midweek, then fall. Despite expectations for cooler weather, prices in New York and Boston rose midweek—but still remained relatively low, and well below the Henry Hub price. Prices at Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 delivery point (serving New York City) bottomed out at $2.23/MMBtu on Friday, before rising to $3.41/MMBtu on Monday and ending the report week at $2.71 /MMBtu. Prices at the Algonquin Citygate (serving Boston) settled at $2.59/MMBtu on Friday and ended the week at $3.00/MMBtu yesterday.

Nymex at 6-month low. Nymex prices declined this week, falling from $4.170/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.119/MMBtu yesterday. Prices Tuesday settled at $4.097/MMBtu, their lowest level of the near-month contract since January. The price of the 12-month strip (the 12 contracts between August 2014 and July 2015) fell from $4.209/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.159/MMBtu yesterday....MUCH MORE
Deviation between average and normal (°F)
7-Day Mean ending Jul 10, 2014
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jul 10, 2014