Friday, May 2, 2014

Morgan Stanley Analysts Almost ‘Outbear’ Goldman on Gold Price

We had a bit of a price perturbation when the employment numbers were released, chart below.
From Mineweb:

Morgan Stanley bank analysts are the latest ones to see the gold price continue to weaken through this year and next with a $1,168 average price prediction for H2 2014 and $1,138 for 2015. 
 Posted: Wednesday , 30 Apr 2014

LONDON (Mineweb) - 
Major bank analysts continue to talk down the gold price and the latest one to come up with a mega-bearish forecast for gold this year and next are Morgan Stanley’s Joel Crane, Peter Richardson and their fellow analysts who co-authored the bank’s latest commodity predictions.  Indeed if anything, Crane and his colleagues have even almost suggested a worse fate for the gold price this year than Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie with his ‘slam dunk sell’ advice.

Indeed the Morgan Stanley predictions have just added to a slew of very negative assessments on gold and silver from the banking sector. As Bloomberg recalled in an article yesterday Goldman’s Currie suggested the yellow metal will fall to $1,050 in the next 12 months as the U.S. Fed continues its tapering policy through the year while ABN Amro analysts reckoned gold may end 2014 at $1,000 an ounce. An LBMA survey of traders and analysts too did not give much comfort to gold followers with the view that gold would average $1,219 this year, although this looks to be positively bullish in relation to some of the more dire predictions out there!

The Morgan Stanley analysis suggests a gold price average for the current quarter of $1,250 – down from an average based on the London Gold Fix of just over $1,290 for Q1 and $1,300 for the current month to date. But moving further ahead, Morgan Stanley is predicting an average of $1,168 in the second half of the current year and an even lower average of $1,138 for 2015.  All this suggests that within these periods the analysts are expecting to see gold test the $1,000 barrier on the downside from time to time if gold is indeed going to record such low average prices....MORE
Also at Mineweb:
Two-faced Goldman appears to hedge bets on gold stocks and bullion 

For what it's worth our target is $875. Here's today's action via FinViz: