A Very Good Drought Prediction

Back in 2008 we posted these handy little maps
And noted:

...The relationship between drought in the continental US and the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The most severe droughts occur when the PDO is in a negative phase, and the AMO is in a positive phase....

The ocean SeaSurfaceTemperature anomalies are currently -PDO (but see note below) and +AMO i.e. the map at bottom right.

Here is the most recent Drought Monitor map:

McCabe G J et al. PNAS 2004;101:4136-4141 

From McCabe (2004):

More than half (52%) of the space and time variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought. 

The AMO is currently showing negative readings. This is probably a precursor to a full scale flip of the warm phase that began in 1995 but may not take hold for a year or two.
The PDO is currently showing positive readings but in this case it doesn't mean much. A look at the values from the early 2000's also shows the sign flipping from positive to negative and back.
We'll take a deeper look at the anomalous anomalies when the coming El Nino becomes established.

Historic and current AMO readings
Historic and current PDO readings

And from Unisys, the Sea Surface Temp anomalies. Of special note are
1) the warm blob off the Pacific Northwest, that is the PDO measurement area, currently warm but with seriously cold water to its west.
2) the warm spots along the equator west of South America: that's the El Nino 1, 2 region. Watch to see if it connects with the 3.4 region further west.
3) the very warm spot in the Atlantic off Maryland-through-Maine