Friday, August 16, 2013

Thanks Izzy: Copper, Aluminum and Zinc Up For the Week

Following up on:

In Which Our Hero Explains the Importance of Recent Events 
and Their Impact on the Cost of Day-to-Day Living

which ended with:
The price action to look for is: first up (although some of that has already occurred), and then, a picture even a four-year-old can understand:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj57AUOlAZPRXes2UosfyYcrHEk22JPNTva46j_bVztaEWsRZ37R1BoguwAMabxOH-DiQKsmGWcnRbyHFT2wKh-wkgd1IrgCAElBLL87j5XJMfj5bxYCWBlp3DTEL1NDcIpkCR_6mBaM6c/s1600/dancing+bears.jpg
That was on August 8.
Here are the Kitco spot charts. The LME charts exhibit the same pattern. And note this is in the face of declining warehouse stocks.






Ditto for zinc.

Now I know there are other factors which could have played a part in the move, the weakness of the dollar and the perception of recovery in China being two of the biggies but for now I'm going to point out that it was FT Alphaville that first raised the possibility that all the attention to the warehouse games could have the seemingly perverse effect of raising prices as the financiers unwound financing deals and the warehouse owners sought to avoid sanctions by agreeing to release more metal into the queues.

And we felt confident enough of the effect/trend that we reprised the Aug. 8 post, complete with dancing bears, four days later.

The headline is a play on a 2010 post that we ref'd yesterday: "Thanks Alphaville: 'Testing the Hindenberg Omen'"