Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Natural Gas: EIA Trims 2013 Price Forecast, Calling For Slightly Higher 2014 Prices

The front futures are down a penny at $3.31 after trading as low as $3.292..
From Upstream Online:

EIA trims US gas output estimate
...In 2014, EIA said it expects total gas use slipping 620 MMcfpd, or 0.9%, to 69.31 Bcf daily "as increases in natural gas prices contribute to declines in gas used for electric power generation".

EIA projected the share of electric generation fueled by gas in 2013 will average about 27.4%, down from 2012's average of 30.4% as the higher gas prices prompt generators to burn more coal.

EIA forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2013 to average $3.71 per million British thermal units, down 5 cents from its July estimate of $3.76 per MMBtu but 35% above 2012's estimated average of $2.75 per MMBtu.

In 2014, EIA expects gas prices to rise 24 cents, or 6.5%, to $3.95 per MMBtu.
From the Energy Information Administration's Short-term Energy Outlook:
Release Date: August 6, 2013  |  Next Release Date: September 10, 2013 

...U.S. Natural Gas Consumption
EIA expects that natural gas consumption, which averaged 69.7 Bcf/d in 2012, will average 69.9 Bcf/d and 69.3 Bcf/d in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Colder winter temperatures in 2013 and 2014 (compared with the record-warm temperatures in 2012) are expected to increase the amount of natural gas used for residential and commercial space heating. However, the projected year-over-year increases in natural gas prices contribute to declines in natural gas used for electric power generation from 25.0 Bcf/d in 2012 to 22.2 Bcf/d in 2013 and 21.6 Bcf/d in 2014.

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Trade

Natural gas marketed production is projected to increase from 69.2 Bcf/d in 2012 to 69.9 Bcf/d in 2013 and to 70.5 Bcf/d in 2014. Onshore production increases over the forecast period, while federal Gulf of Mexico production from existing fields declines as the economics of onshore drilling remain more favorable. Natural gas pipeline gross imports, which have fallen over the past five years, are projected to fall by 0.2 Bcf/d in 2013 and then remain near 2013 levels in 2014. LNG imports are expected to remain at minimal levels of around 0.4 Bcf/d in both 2013 and 2014....MUCH MORE