The Great Depression started in rural America 10 years before it consumed the entire country. The first signs of the coming deflation were in agricultural commodities (real [2010] dollars) 1920 to 1930:
From BusinessWeek:
Corn slumps as rain forecast boosts crop outlook
The price of corn fell to the lowest in almost three years the forecast for rain in the Plains region boosted the outlook for this year's crop.This is starting to feel serious, even if you are positioned on the right side of the trade.
The cooler, wetter weather will be particularly helpful for this year's crop because corn is currently in its crucial pollination season. The weather in the corn-growing states of the U.S. this summer is in stark contrast to the drought that the region experienced last year.
"It's expected to be cooler than normal. That's going to be helpful (for the crop), especially for areas that are a little short on moisture," said Art Liming, a futures specialist at Citigroup.
Corn for December delivery fell 12 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $4.67 a bushel, its lowest price since Oct. 1, 2010. The price of corn has fallen 44 percent since surging as high as $8.39 a bushel last August.
The price of corn has moved lower since March 28 after the government reported that farmers intended to plant the most corn since 1936 this year. Prices have steadily dropped as the favorable weather has increased the likelihood of a big crop....MORE
In 1920 the price per bushel fell from $1.85 in June to $0.65 in December, an outright deflationary depression that lasted until July 1921.
As the old saying goes It's all fun and games until somebody pokes an eye out.
